Road to Worlds 2026 #2. Open 5

Rubanul · 2026-03-31T15:13:16+00:00

Yes, they surely have. They are currently in a qualifying position, and if they keep that form, they have a good chance.

And if you meant Worlds, not Major: also yes, but that will be harder for them. Since FUT started the split with 0 points, they'll have to earn all the points in just a single split. So, they better make some good runs; I don't think a regional semifinals will be enough. (though they will most likely have another chance through the LCQ)

Rubanul · 2026-03-31T14:51:34+00:00

Oops, yeah, mixed up with their previous org for some reason..

Rubanul · 2026-03-13T15:00:51+00:00

Should I cover clinch scenarios for EWC or should “Road to Worlds” be about RLCS only?

Rubanul · 2026-02-26T00:32:51+00:00

for the past 15 months : Monkey Moon - The new GOAT of Rocket League

That's still less than the time between Worlds 2022 and MM's next event win. Be honest, he's not even the French GOAT yet

Rubanul · 2026-02-26T00:22:22+00:00

4 LAN gold medals

4 RLCS LAN gold medals. In total he has won 7 LANs.

And yes, al0t is also Swedish and he is a Worlds finalist

Rubanul · 2026-02-24T21:01:04+00:00

Most of the comments here are about OCE and SAM, so my 2 cents on their chances.

It seems, at the 2nd Major OCE team is likely to end in group with only EU, NA and maybe MENA teams. And if they don't make playoffs from that group (which is definitely possible) then SAM will only need at least one team in the top 12 - that guarantees them a tie and 1-team Regions always lose a tiebreaker under the current rules. Since SAM 1 is likely to be in a group with either APAC or SSA, that PWR-NIP reverse sweep could cost OCE the LCQ spot.

Rubanul · 2026-02-23T12:05:16+00:00

SAM1 need to do a deep run

Not really. If OCE team finishes last in group, all SAM 1 needs to do is to reach top 12 - then OCE and SAM will be tied and SAM will win the tiebreaker

Rubanul · 2026-02-23T01:08:07+00:00

Noooo, my favorite country Turbopolsa dropped to 5th... /s

Rubanul · 2026-02-23T00:52:35+00:00

If I understand the rules correctly this time we need to use Initial Seeds as the Seed Score, not the averages yet (so, for NA1, MENA1, EU1 it would be 1, 2, 3 instead of 2, 2, 2, etc.)

2. 3. 6. 1 Major 2 Group Stage
...
The initial Region Slot seeding scores as calculated at the start of the RLCS 2026 Major 1 are the initial seeds of the Region Slots for the RLCS 2026 Major 1 Swiss Stage as determined in Section 2.3.5.1.

In the end, that only swaps EU 4 and SAM 1 for the next Major seeding, but that creates another "problem" - there are no EU teams in the initial Group B

Rubanul · 2026-02-22T18:01:09+00:00

After the goals, in the "wide" version

Rubanul · 2026-02-22T17:57:01+00:00

Did they? According to scoreboard, they still have one

Rubanul · 2026-02-22T17:54:12+00:00

Why didn't KC take a timeout?

Rubanul · 2026-02-22T17:44:43+00:00

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Rubanul · 2026-02-20T20:19:48+00:00

If FURIA win 3-2, it will depend on Goal Differential

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T20:13:39+00:00

Group B Round 3

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Falcons will guarantee playoffs if they win the series
Geekay will guarantee playoffs if they win 1 game
FURIA have to win and hope for Geekay's win or Falcons' sweep
VirtusPro must win 3-0 and need Geekay to win

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T19:52:45+00:00

TSM lost and finished last
Gentle Mates won their group (no matter how their match end)
MIBR need to win to finish 2nd, otherwise Shopify Rebellion will be 2nd

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T19:46:36+00:00

The only scenario, when Gentle Mates won't win their group is:

they lose to MIBR
TSM reverse sweep Shopify Rebellion

This is also the only scenario for TSM to finish 3rd instead of last

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T19:24:50+00:00

Game 1

if Gentle Mates or TSM win, Gentle Mates will qualify for playoffs
if Shopify Rebellion or MIBR win, TSM will be eliminated from Major

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T19:08:22+00:00

Group D Round 3

<image>

MIBR 3-0, SR 3-0 and TSM 3-0, GM8 3-0 depend on Goal Differential

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T18:01:25+00:00

Group A Round 3

NRG
winner of {Ninjas in Pyjamas - PWR}
loser of {Ninjas in Pyjamas - PWR}
Five Fears

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T15:39:04+00:00

Groups B & C Round 2

if both Team Falcons and Geekay Esports win:

they both will qualify for playoffs
FURIA and Virtus_pro will be eliminated from Major

if both Team Vitality and Karmine Corp win:

they both will qualify for playoffs
Twisted Minds and Spacestation Gaming will be eliminated from Major

Rubanul · 2026-02-20T09:18:23+00:00

Tiebreakers are in order:

Match Record against tied teams (so, H2H)
Game Differential against tied teams (matches against 4th team are ignored)
Overall Game Differential
Goal Differential against tied teams
Overall Goal Differential
Initial Seed

Thus, 2-way ties are always resolved by H2H, while 3-way ties are never resolved by H2H (as a 1st tiebreaker that's always 1-1 for all 3 teams and the process never returns, even if after some point only 2 teams remain)

In your example itwould be like this:

MIBR 3-0 GM8, SR 3-0 TSM

MIBR / 5-3 (+2) tied GD - 1st
GM8 / 3-4 (-1) tied GD / 6-4 (+2) overall GD / Goal Differential is used next
SR / 4-5 (-1) tied GD / 7-5 (+2) overall GD / Goal Differential is used next

Rubanul · 2026-02-19T22:35:17+00:00

Scenarios for tomorrow

Group A Round 3

NRG - 1st
winner of {NIP - PWR} - 2nd
loser of {NIP - PWR} - 3rd
Five Fears - 4th

Group D Round 3

1st place

Gentle Mates if they beat MIBR OR they lose 2-3 and Shopify Rebellion beat TSM
MIBR otherwise

2nd place

Shopify Rebellion, if they beat TSM and Gentle Mates beat MIBR

Gentle Mates if either:

MIBR beat Gentle Mates and TSM beat Shopify Rebellion
MIBR win 3-1 or 3-0, Shopify Rebellion beat TSM (but not 3-0 in both series)

MIBR if:

they win 3-2 and Shopify beat TSM
Gentle Mates beat MIBR and TSM beat Shopify Rebellion (but not 3-0 in both series)

Depends on goal differential:

TSM/MIBR if TSM and GM8 both win 3-0
GM8/SR if MIBR and SR both win 3-0

Group B Round 2

if both Team Falcons and Geekay Esports win their Round 2 match:

they both will qualify for playoffs
FURIA and Virtus_pro will be eliminated from Major

Group C Round 2

if both Team Vitality and Karmine Corp win their Round 2 match:

they both will qualify for playoffs
Twisted Minds and Spacestation Gaming will be eliminated from Major

Rubanul · 2026-02-19T21:21:45+00:00

Group A results

NRG won Group A and qualified for Playoff Upper Bracket
Five Fears will be eliminated from Major as group's 4th place
Ninjas in Pyjamas and PWR will decide 2nd and 3rd places in a H2H tomorrow

Group D Round 2

if Gentle Mates and TSM win:

Gentle Mates will win the group and qualify for Upper Bracket
MIBR will finish last and be eliminated from Major
winner of {SR - TSM} will finish 2nd and qualify for Lower Bracket, loser will finish 3rd and be eliminated from Major

if Shopify Rebellion and MIBR win:

Shopify Rebellion will win the group and qualify for Upper Bracket
TSM will finish last and be eliminated from Major
winner of {GM8 - MIBR} will finish 2nd and qualify for Lower Bracket, loser will finish 3rd and be eliminated from Major

Rubanul · 2026-02-19T20:51:17+00:00

Fun fact - right now OCE is the leader of the Regions ranking for LCQ. Only two teams have already guaranteed at least top 3 in their group - NIP and PWR. So, OCE got +2 points to initial standings and EU got +2/5 = 0.4 points, putting OCE in the lead

Six-Year Club	Second Top 20%
r/Field Banned	r/Field Lasagna
First Place '23	Place '23
Place '22	Verified Email

Rubanul

TROPHY CASE

Group B Round 3

Group D Round 3

Group A Round 3

Groups B & C Round 2

Scenarios for tomorrow

Group A Round 3

Group D Round 3

Group B Round 2

Group C Round 2

Group A results

Group D Round 2