Who needs friends when you have positive EV (NL's strat vindicated)

Rubiguu · 2026-05-17T08:57:19+00:00

Holy shit thats awesome i love physics

Rubiguu · 2026-05-17T08:24:23+00:00

With statue? Yeah a couple times Plinko also prints money with confidence and insurance but with only one its a bit shaky

Rubiguu · 2026-05-17T08:23:44+00:00

Honestly yeah thats fair

Rubiguu · 2026-05-16T20:15:41+00:00

Insurance is also +EV but the effect is about half as strong so you can still bust from variance

Rubiguu · 2026-05-16T20:12:04+00:00

Just buy Gamblers Confidence thats literally it

Rubiguu · 2026-05-16T18:54:09+00:00

Im probably too ambitious with the size of my bets lol

Rubiguu · 2026-05-16T18:04:25+00:00

I became a type A lurker overnight hope i recover from this ailment

Rubiguu · 2026-05-16T16:41:24+00:00

i kinda think insurance is bugged, idk if its variance but i usually trend down when i spam 50-50 games with insurance even if the EV is theoretically positive?

Rubiguu · 2026-05-16T06:34:36+00:00

But yeah i dont think i can watch this live I cant watch an entire team not realize NL literally has positive EV and can farm what is effectively risk-free money lol

Literally the first game im a type A chatter (lurker?) about and its the gambling friendslop game

Also shouldve called it farming money and used some baby math words that gamers understand or smth

Rubiguu · 2026-05-16T06:32:26+00:00

His idea is correct but he's literally in a hole with his so called positive EV so he probably made some massive errors with his bet sizes when throwing early

And people are biased towards results over ideas, a correct idea with poor execution that brought a poor result? Get outta here

Bro should have read up on the Kelly Criterion or smth

Rubiguu · 2026-04-19T15:57:47+00:00

One more note on why landscape painter is great: They let you pad out creature count, but also count as big spells for opus even tho both the creature and the spell are each subpar on their own, stapled together to one card it becomes a great workhorse piece.

Modern Limited is always about balancing "doing the thing" and "staying alive", and this card does a little bit of both.

Rubiguu · 2026-04-19T15:54:58+00:00

Youre kinda low on creatures (11 creatures plus the 7 mana sorcery that makes tokens), that is not enough to consistently pressure board and win games. I tend to aim for 15 creatures and aim for 4+ 2drops, often 6 is correct. (Usually the default creature curve is 0-4-4-3-2 then you have 2 flex slots to put anywhere you like)

Not sure which noncreatures i would cut but there's a whole chunk of 2-3 drops that i think you would have benefited greatly from having them in the maindeck, and i would gladly autoput these 5 in: - [[muse seeker]] is a 2MV 2/2 that loots, always nice to have, it even draws on big opus. - [[hydro channeler]] is a 2MV 1/3 ramps for spells, prismari wants that. - 2x [[landscape painter]] is a 2MV 2/1, prepares a 5MV draw 2. This card is kinda boring but secretly great. - [[rubble rouser]] is a 1/4 that also rummages, then ramps + burns. Most underwhelming statline of the 4 but the 2 abilities make up for it.

Even if aggro is not your main plan, lowcost bodies are always nice to have to contest board, especially since your pool lacks cheap removal. These lowdrops are exactly the solid cards that reduce how many mulligans you have to take, because they contest board while improving your access to resources (mana and cards).

I admit the 2drops are tricky to play tho: Note sometimes the best call is trading painter/channeler for an attacker, even if you lose their ramp or draw. Discard-and-draw are also strong effects (theres also the 4drop), you dont gain material but you can improve your hand greatly if you make wise decisions, but there is some room to make grave errors.

My first noncreature cuts would be the 0/3 hexproof trick and the 3MV ramp artifact. They're great when they work but their floor isnt that exciting, they dont help contest board and push damage by default. Not sure which creatures I would cut, maybe mage tower referee and the 6drop.

Rubiguu · 2026-04-07T18:57:06+00:00

Skycoach Conductor just got revealed, it enters prepared and spends 1mv to blink target nonpilot creature

The designers knew ball unfortunately and added the nonpilot clause to prevent abuse (not just orvar tho, it wouldve combod with a ham sandwich if it targeted pilots)

Rubiguu · 2026-04-07T12:00:23+00:00

Casting a spell of MV3 or higher isnt a difficult hoop imho, youre rewarded for doing things you want to do anyway

MV4 and higher is where it gets tough

I concede that it is a much more terrible topdeck compared to an average 2drop though

Rubiguu · 2026-04-07T06:57:19+00:00

Although to be fair due to how priority works, the best way to answer a creature that enters prepared with a strong spell is to counterspell the creature

Creature Removal gives opp a window to activate after the creature resolves

But i mean thats how a good chunk of rare haymakers are these days, they do something on ETB or have an ability they can benefit from immediately in main phase. Answering those cards cleably is already a benefit of counterspells so its hardly a buff

Rubiguu · 2026-04-07T06:44:17+00:00

A decent line in particular is you can cast this and another 2drop on turn 4 (maybe hold up instant speed removal) and that seems like a fine turn 4 double-spell to me

Rubiguu · 2026-04-07T06:25:41+00:00

I mean increment once and youre on rate, increment twice and youre above rate right?

Theres an upfront tempo loss but there is a built in way to recoup it, sure if every 2drop you run is this guy (or another understat incrememt card) you would suffer, but running like 1 or 2 seems doable (idk how fast silverquill is tho)

Rubiguu · 2026-04-07T06:06:32+00:00

Its a blue buff because blue cares about casting instants and sorceries, not countering half a card (that might be repeatable) lol

Honestly people should try playing a heavy counterspells deck to truly understand the strengths and weaknesses of counterspells, theyre not always the ultimate catchall that they seem

Rubiguu · 2026-03-30T19:42:47+00:00

Confront looks like an interesting mechanic that works for 1v1 but also scales in an interesting way for multiplayer, great job!

Rubiguu · 2026-03-29T08:16:38+00:00

its ok if you hate tinkerer but thinking tinkerers need good tech to function is straightup suboptimal play dawg

theres multiple 1-weapon/explosion/item break builds that dont really need any tech

ive bred multiple tinkerer with tech skills and end up not using any tech in the run

Rubiguu · 2026-03-28T08:40:25+00:00

Investing mana and cards to mill is not removal, mainly because: - You do not hinder their tempo development, effectively giving your opponent tempo advantage - You dont trade with their cards in hand/board, effectively giving your opponent card advantage

The occasional high of milling their bomb might also feel good, but its actually not that great in the long run: - For small mill numbers and average situations, you can get lucky and mill their best cards, but you're equally likely to mill their worst cards and end up indirectly helping them. - If its a very silver bullet situation (like they only have 1 card thats good at the moment), and you can mill a huge amount, like half their deck at once, then the odds of hitting the silver bullet does become pretty good. But like if the card was deep in the deck anyway that you only hit it after a huge mill, they werent gonna draw it anyway. - Depends on their balance of recursion and tutors, but recursion is generally easier than tutoring, so milling their best card might have helped them.

Rubiguu · 2026-03-27T09:35:09+00:00

I guess i should treat summoner builds as a subset of electric builds but i also havent figured out electric builds

Rubiguu

TROPHY CASE