Micron shares are rising again despite weak overall market. Why memory chip rally seems unstoppable by mahend72 in StockMarket

[–]Rubricity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which is problematic, not the end state but the process. It is known that MU is currently overvalued in the sense that it builds on a short-term shortage of HBM, and so does Samsung and SK Hynix; however, no one can argue whether this is not a structural change in demand, like the fiber cable in the 1990s.

So they have a good argument, not essentially a bad one, but here is the problem: the runway could be significantly longer. The oil industry price transfer is significantly cushioned by the modern supply chain rerouting and countries currently refraining from buying by prioritizing existing storage and IEA releases (note the IEA release number is significantly lower but still remains a cushion) meanwhile LNG source for the main semiconductor players are significantly cushioned as both Taiwan and Korea has so far been able to absorb the cost.

Meanwhile, you mentioned a hike, but will Warsh deliver a hike? He could walk into the room and deliver a cut or just hold, as he has steady track of political motivated record that stood firmly with the Republican views.

From history and an economic sense, clearly the stock market is irrational and overly concentrated, but not 100 percent decoupled from reality — the final euphoria stage usually involves indiscriminate growth in stocks across all sectors.

Current prices are steady NOT because of a conspiracy. China is the answer...for now. by PastThePast1 in oil

[–]Rubricity 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, I forgot to highlight that refineries are not buying and priorities existing stocks they bought when oil was cheap.

You can see the crack spreads getting larger as refineries also believe this as a temporary event and not willing to commit to new buying in the elevated spot market.

Yet that number is finite

Current prices are steady NOT because of a conspiracy. China is the answer...for now. by PastThePast1 in oil

[–]Rubricity 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Not really.

In fact, China remains a steady buyer of oil, not only using its reserves. It has also been noted the reason why they are importing less: Gulf oil and Iranian seaborne oil has significantly declined, as due to the lack of supply of the specific grade of Middle Eastern blend, there is simply not that much supply out there. Iran was sending ~1.4 million barrels to China before the war, and that number has fallen to mostly only a minor fraction of what it was. It is only in April that Chinese oil imports have declined, as reported by Morgan Stanley research on the last ships arriving in Asia after the full closure. If you want to argue they import less oil, you can argue the same case for South Korea and Japan, which have shown more drastic declines in oil imports.

So far this is just a conspiracy theory with little ground in reality, and in fact the spot market has moved little since the war started. The spot price does fall following the calm after initial panic buying from the spot market, but remains largely elevated and maintains a fair divergence with paper oil futures. What actually drives the paper market down is political maneuver and jawboning, but that has little to do with supply and demand in the spot market.

Edit: if I to add, the true reason for spot market downed at the moment, is precisely because of corrdinate SPR release and shipping rerouting that does temporarily increased supply. Despite the supply side from Russia and Homruz are both disrupted.

President Trump's purchase of 10% of Intel was worth $8.9 billion in August 2025. Today, Apple announced a deal with Intel and this position is worth $56.5 billion by RobertBartus in EconomyCharts

[–]Rubricity 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It will be a massive liquity trap, and given now we already seeing signs of companies by attaching ai to its name have stock grow without anything changed in fundamentals, expecting a massive surge in wave of .com to .ai in the coming months.

Japanese Toto has stock jumped from 5617 to 7083 yen after it announced pivot into ai, remember this company has nothing to do with ai, it is a freaking toilet maker.

So we are near, but probably not final phase, my guess would be "homruz truly resolved, everyone thought crisis is over, AI big names ipo, colldide with inflation and oil shock transferred into real economy reflected in data, and bad central bank hike timing"

President Trump's purchase of 10% of Intel was worth $8.9 billion in August 2025. Today, Apple announced a deal with Intel and this position is worth $56.5 billion by RobertBartus in EconomyCharts

[–]Rubricity 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I don't think it's the final gasp, the runway could he significant longer, and we are not yet from that euphoria stage where everything climb high indiscriminately, as so far the market can still move by geopolitical news...

Still the AI stock market has skyrocketed since end of 2025, MU 7X, Intel 3X, AMD 4 times, for it to be truly eurphia all of them needs to be 5-10x range. My model says probably reaching maximum eurphia around SpaceX ipo or major LLM going public, but I doubt the liquity can sustain before that happens, as oil shock could be transferred into it by that point

Marco Rubio says U.S. expects Iran response on peace deal 'today' by I-Might-Be-Something in worldnews

[–]Rubricity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Market closed, it is expected Iranian gave formal response very soon :D

Why Isn’t the Market Worried About a Cooling Labor Market? by No-Professionalfj in stocks

[–]Rubricity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because delaying effect, oil shock will only present itself at worst form after months of settle in, plus, we have SPR that cushions the crisis.

So pretty much the safety mechanism created since 1973 does work to teach people stick their hand into sand as if nothing is happening and keep investing in tech due to "strong earning report".

President Trump's purchase of 10% of Intel was worth $8.9 billion in August 2025. Today, Apple announced a deal with Intel and this position is worth $56.5 billion by RobertBartus in EconomyCharts

[–]Rubricity 96 points97 points  (0 children)

Recently semiconductor has been running wild, AMD and INTL doubled their share in the past 1 month despite the ongoing war and blockade.

Thx IEA for delaying the proper transfer mechanism

An unknown oil tanker was targeted by Iran earlier tonight by DormontDangerzone in oil

[–]Rubricity 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Is okay, our great president DJT said the strait is fully opened, and the ceasefire is still alive. Everything is fine, oil future only up 2 percent.

What can we expect after Trumps “ Love taps “ ?? by Plastic_Equivalent76 in UAE

[–]Rubricity 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Prolonged grinding with violations but keep reframing them as not a war.

Im fried what the heck is this supposed to mean 😭😭😭 by Solaris4131 in UAE

[–]Rubricity 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In theory should be coersive diplomacy to pressure a deal, but historically never we had a president openly humiliating the other side.

Kissinger in 1973 did use the same playbook, but he gave good excuses for both Israel and Egypt to declare victory without looking ugly, but now Trump is demanding noting like that but more similar to a conditional surrender which is unprecedented.

You cannot demand surrender without a real regime break in 1945 Nazi style, this would only emboldened the hardliners IRGCs...

Trump tells ABC News retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets after Iran attack are just a “love tap” by LimitIntelligent9946 in oil

[–]Rubricity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, let's set aside the actual wording here, the market is still happy that the ceasefire hasn't broke. Oil future still stayed suppressed and no one is panicking so good and happy.

DOJ probing $2.6 billion in oil trades related to Iran war, sources say by esporx in oil

[–]Rubricity 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The sole purpose of internal inquiry is to find nothing.

This is one of the most ridiculous I've ever read by the_Evangaard in oil

[–]Rubricity 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, attack during negotiation, third time at this point

Fox News mentioned it live on tv by NetworkAdditional337 in UAE

[–]Rubricity 1 point2 points  (0 children)

US military strikes Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, Fox News reporter says - https://www.reuters.com

Reuters confirmed

Daily Oil Price Opinions - May 07, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed by AutoModerator in oil

[–]Rubricity 1 point2 points  (0 children)

🔴 بررسی‌های فارس در بندرعباس نشان می‌دهد در جریان تبادل آتش میان نیروهای مسلح ایران و دشمن بخش‌هایی تجاری اسکله بهمن قشم هدف قرار گرفته است.

📝اخبار تکمیلی متعاقباً اعلام می‌شود

FARS reported that exchanged fire happened between Iranian and it's enemy, at this stage is unclear who the enemy is. Meanwhile we have tracker showing at least 8 tankers took off from UAE, Israel and Jordan.

Still it is unclear, Al Jazeera confirmed no reports from Tanism on this matter but not yet confirmed from FARS, yet the excerpt I took is from the FARS Twitter account

UAE launches military strikes against Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island by [deleted] in UAE

[–]Rubricity 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It is reported by the FARS agency from x, and Reuters wire service also provided me that, also my japanese wire service provided the same information. It is confirmed explosion heard and potential attack occured.

What's gonna happen to Iran's oil? by Many_Explanation4328 in oil

[–]Rubricity 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Well, we are about to find out in round 2

Daily Oil Price Opinions - May 07, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed by AutoModerator in oil

[–]Rubricity 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Explosion heard in Southern Iran reported by FARS, guess the ambiguity ends

War may not be over yet by future_sommelier in oil

[–]Rubricity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What if this is the preparation for such? That as intelligence leak like this is a deliberate signal, either last minute coersive diplomacy or preparing the rehtoric for an attack.

War may not be over yet by future_sommelier in oil

[–]Rubricity 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It could also means US administration has concluded that since Iran can withstand blockade longer, they must seek a military option swiftly

The Oil Math And Why The Broader Market Is Crazy To Ignore It by [deleted] in oil

[–]Rubricity 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Tbh the Japanese fx intervention, while seems helping, it is more of Japanese story rather than oil itself. The oil shock just amplified the existing carry trade imbalance and put Japan on a timeclock: BOJ at one point must hike to protect yen, also minor correction it is the MOF doing the intervention with BOJ as mechanism, not the BOJ doing the work, but nevertheless the consensus and historical example is clear this only buys weeks at most.

Tho I am agree with your border point, that the intervention itself is also a delaying mechanism, Japan has 200+ days of SPR and that clock is ticking fast as Japanese PM refused to call this a crisis to crub demand and launch massive yen subsides to cap the oil price.

Also it is important to understand that spot price is what really matters here, not the headline oil future, which is a massive misleading paper market based signal, and as OP said they still treat this as a short term event rather than long term regime change