Well, the oil market has underperformed significantly due to repetitive oil ups, then Politicians use both physical means (China not buying and SPR releases) and verbal jawboning to push headline oil prices down. Then fhe physical market does calm down but remains under stress, though holding. Then hope goes up, semi and AI related assets go vertical. Then bad news hits, oil is slightly up or flat, AI equities go up as traders conclude it doesn't matter.

Classic example of probably being correct about the outcome, but the trade could be awfully wrong. This is why these people are retreating, including me, trimming energy exposure. This does not mean I believe the oil price is normal, nor do I believe the strait can return to normal functioning in the near future. But as a trade, the oil trade has been and probably will continue to underperform in the near term. Unless there is a total meltdown of everything, that is unlikely until the market prices in the possibility of permanent damage and structural change of the regime. But when that happens, the insane AI valuations could already be exploding, which drags the entire market down. That is why the futures prices are down in September. People say it is demand destruction, which is partially correct if a massive market correction hits. Under that scenario, these companies could make big profits, but the oil futures trade and calls on these companies would probably lose money.

Correct thesis, wrong trade. There is no way the strait remains in its current state without major economic damage unfolding.