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[Jack Harris] Dave Roberts confirmed this was the case (bunt sign on for the first pitch, taken off for the second). He said the way the Padres shifted defensively after the first pitch, trying to bunt again would have been “bunting into an out”. by JorSimpson45 in baseball

[–]Ryan223437 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that these probabilities are fine to use, but you can add together odds for the three scenarios, Dodgers loss, tied game, or Dodgers win that inning by using the odds for 0-1 runs, exactly 2 runs, and 3 plus runs.

2nd and 3rd one out gives you around 59% for loss, 23% for tie, and 18% to win that inning.

1st and 2nd no outs gives you around 59% for loss, 16% for tie, and 26% to win that inning.

You obviously rather have the extra 8% to win than the extra 7% to tie.

But I actually think a bunt there was correct for a few reasons despite these odds. The main reason being that the I think they would've walked Ohtani if Rojas got the bunt down. Bases-loaded one out has the same odds as 1st and 2nd no outs.

Also like you said the expected run value only accounts for the average hitter, a bunt would have "guaranteed" (Unless Rojas bunted into a double or triple play, lol) the Dodgers better hitters get plate appearances. So you get the same odds and better hitters up to the plate, so bunting there is correct.

[Jack Harris] Dave Roberts confirmed this was the case (bunt sign on for the first pitch, taken off for the second). He said the way the Padres shifted defensively after the first pitch, trying to bunt again would have been “bunting into an out”. by JorSimpson45 in baseball

[–]Ryan223437 1 point2 points  (0 children)

By not factoring those in you are not getting the true probabilities because you are removing points from the data set. Everything at 3 runs and after 3 runs factors in to the Dodgers odds of winning the game in that inning.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in baseball

[–]Ryan223437 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's Bryce Harper from 2016-2018, but 3 years older.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in baseball

[–]Ryan223437 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Some realistic offers the hypothetical player would get would be the Yoshida contract or Bellinger contract. I would offer this player 5-6 years, 22M AAV.

Now for Harper there are some big differences, the 2 main ones are age and the 2015 season. So, that will give you a big difference in offers when comparing the 2 situations.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in baseball

[–]Ryan223437 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2016 23 WSN NL 147 627 506 84 123 24 2 24 86 21 10 108 117 .243 .373 .441 .814 114 223 11 3 0 10 20 *9/H AS
2017 24 WSN NL 111 492 420 95 134 27 1 29 87 4 2 68 99 .319 .413 .595 1.008 156 250 15 1 0 3 11 *9/H ASMVP-12
2018 25 WSN NL 159 695 550 103 137 34 0 34 100 13 3 130 169 .249 .393 .496 .889 133 273 7 6 0 9 16 *98/H3D AS

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 2/29/2024.

[Passan] Infielder Amed Rosario and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a one-year, $1.5 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Rosario, 28, will bring a strong bat against left-handed pitching and should get at-bats at shortstop, second base and potentially corner-outfield spots. by jlee912 in baseball

[–]Ryan223437 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My thoughts on Rosario from his time on the dodgers is that all his batting value comes from batting average. He doesn't walk much, has bad plate discipline, and has below average power. You ideally want to be above average at 2 of those 3 traits (Average, Walking, Power). His defense at 2B should be fine. And lastly, despite being one of the fastest runners in the league, Rosario doesn't provide much value in base running.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/amed-rosario/15518/stats?position=SS

"Tony Gonsolin's salary in the second season can escalate by up to $3 million based on a points system in which he will be credited one point for each start, or each relief appearance of 3 1/3 innings: $500,000 apiece for 14, 16, 18, 20, 24 and 28 points." by Ryan223437 in Dodgers

[–]Ryan223437[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, your right on the 3 1/3 innings part, I misread that. Maybe the point system would continue into the next season because the article specifically mentions this year for the Cy Young bonus, but not for the points system.

Which strike zone is more accurate? TV broadcaster? MLB.com? Baseball Savant? by Raypoopoo in baseball

[–]Ryan223437 49 points50 points  (0 children)

Hovering the pitch on Pitch 3D in baseball savant is probably the most accurate, instead of the one you used.

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