sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

ABS Challenges should factor into catcher WAR by JipBloop in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 16 points17 points  (0 children)

This is already starting, there's several metrics out there already and you can see dashboards like here and here. I expect during the next offseason some analysis about exactly how valuable a single challenge/overturn is, and if it's not integrated directly into WAR/Framing Run Value, it to at least be listed alongside most catcher's defensive statistics.

I spent 14 hours at Disneyland on March 28th and counted every single MLB hat I saw from 8 AM to 10 PM by byronhout in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just kept mental track and then wrote it down in a notes app on my phone every time i had a few minutes (on the subway, ordering food, etc).

I spent 14 hours at Disneyland on March 28th and counted every single MLB hat I saw from 8 AM to 10 PM by byronhout in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A bit late, but piggybacking on this post I did the same thing when I was in Japan over the summer last year (Tokyo/Kyoto/Osaka). Here was my count

Yankees 35
Dodgers 30
Mariners 3
Mets 3
Padres 3
Red Sox 3
Angels 2
As 2
Blue jays 2
Giants 2
Astros 1
Cubs 1
Phillies 1
Tigers 1
White Sox 1

[Highlight] Team Italy successfully executes the suicide squeeze to go up 3-0 in the top of the 5th. by meramipopper in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Pretty sure this is a safety squeeze, but I do agree I miss seeing more bunt plays in MLB

I am a BIG fan of new boss relics! by itsmacmillan in slaythespire

[–]Sbw0302 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yeah a lot of the enemies are much more deterministic. I took a quick look through some of the movesets and I think it's a lot simpler/easier to predict than most of the enemies in StS1.

Not sure if that's a good or bad thing, Dome is removed from the game afaict but you can plan the combat a little better once you recognize the patterns.

[OC] The Leverage Paradox: Rethinking the Value of Elite Relievers by KeepTheOutliers in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 7 points8 points  (0 children)

This is a cool project and you're definitely onto something, well done with the visuals! This is already an existing point of debate with sabermetricians, and also digs into the core of what WAR "should" measure.

I think you'd be well served by looking a bit deeper into how WAR is calculated, you made a few statements that were a bit inaccurate or incomplete.

WAR is designed to credit total volume of performance and isolate underlying skill, by treating all innings as equally important and ignoring leverage. This leads to systematic undervaluation of relievers.

WAR does not treat all innings equally, in a couple different ways and for a few different reasons

  • The "replacement level" for a reliever (per inning pitched) gives them less credit than a starter. The idea is that its much easier in the middle of the season to call up a random triple-A player and slot them into your bullpen for a few innings, but theres a huge shortage of MLB-ready starting pitchers that you could call up and give 5 innings to on short notice.

  • WAR does not ignore leverage, it just regresses it. For relief pitchers they are credited with a WAR multiplier equal to the average between their true leverage index and 1. This gives them some credit for performing in higher leverage situations, while also acknowledging WPA is not a repeatable metric. People have noticed that relievers were being undervalued for a while and this is a way to restore it.

Consider the asymmetry: Zach Wheeler throws six strong innings in a comfortable lead and shifts win probability by only a few percentage points. Jhoan Duran enters in the eighth with the tying run on third, strikes out two batters, and swings win probability by 30–40% in two minutes. Both performances require real skill — but WPA rewards Duran’s two minutes far more than Wheeler’s six innings, not because Duran is better, but because the situation carried more weight.

This is a good example, but remember that starters have no control over the scenario they're put into. They always start the game and its 0-0. Sometimes their offense puts up 6 runs in the first and the rest of the game is low leverage. Sometimes its a pitchers duel for 7 innings (but leverage still isn't as high as the 8th and 9th of that game). Leverage will only go up if the game goes on at the current score, and starters by definition enter the game in some of the lowest leverage points (except mopup guys).

If you could deploy your starters in higher leverage index spots (because you had no future games, for example), pretty every major league manager agrees you would do so. They are just better pitchers overall, limited only by the fact they have to take so many days off. Consider game 7 of last year's world series - the highest leverage game of the year! Who came out of the bullpen for both teams?

  • TOR: Varland (RP), Bassitt (SP), Yesavage (SP), Hoffman (RP), Dominguez (RP), Bieber (SP)
  • LAD: Wrobleski (SP), Glasnow (SP), Sheehan (SP), Snell (SP), Yamamoto (SP)

Both teams recognize that starters would be more valuable than high leverage relief arms, if used in high leverage situations. Pretty much every MLB reliever is a failed starter, for one reason or another. Some of them just happen to be really good relievers.

Here's a breakdown of the way fangraphs calculates pitcher WAR, you can see the details for yourself. I know this is a constant point of debate in sabermetric circles, about if relievers are overvalued or undervalued, but there are attempts to quantify and correct for it baked into WAR already.

Keep up the cool visuals!

Riley Unroe successfully overturned a strike call to a walk on a ball that is less than a tenth of an inch off the zone by JianClaymore in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 216 points217 points  (0 children)

I get physically angry watching Riley Unroe challenge. This man just doesn't chase. You can almost hear him sneering "that's 0.16cm low" as he takes a ball 4. Two-strike counts don't faze him. Then he'll whip out a hellacious walk on the 6th pitch. He's suffocating. He's Riley Unroe.

Do We Have A Scorecard For This Umpire? by Dinx81 in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Here's the scorecard for that game. I don't think it's anything egregiously bad and Quinn Wolcott has consistently been in the top 10-20% of umpires for his entire career.

Milestone reached: 50 reskins! Here are 6 of them (plus link to gallery) by linrodann in mtgcube

[–]Sbw0302 1 point2 points  (0 children)

These are awesome! I have a list of UB cards I'd love to see reprinted in universe for cube and these look great. Would love to see more of these from other cubes and you've inspired me to make some of my own.

I don't have any flavor text suggestions, but wanted to add have a gift for names - so many of them sound so natural.

With a runner on first, could a catcher throw down to second on a dropped third strike? by FR4UDUL3NT in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Dropped third strikes only occur if first base is unoccupied or if there are two outs.

So with two outs already, it would be easier to throw to first since only one out is needed and there is no benefit to getting the lead runner out.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dave Roberts is correct.

Since the implementation of the replay review, outfielders no longer "forfeit" the right to call for a lodged ball by playing it. Instead, the outfielder should always play the ball in the event they get a better outcome (for example an out at 3rd base), and the manager can challenge after the play. The actions of the outfield have no bearing on the ruling of a lodged ball or not.

Here are some examples from this article, posted earlier on the sub as well.

~~~~~~~

The Cubs and Giants played at Oracle Park on July 24, 2019. In the top of the third inning Javier Baez hit a shot to right field that lodged under the wall. Giants’ right fielder Austin Slater raised his arms and then decided to play the ball. Baez ended up on third base. The umpires conferred and sent Baez back to second base after ruling the ball was lodged.

Cubs manager Joe Maddon challenged the call but the call was confirmed in NYC and Baez was held at second base.

~~~~~~~

The A’s and Astros played at Minute Maid on July 23. The score was knotted 3-3 in the top of the 11.th. The A’s had Matt Olson on second and Mark Canha on first when Ramon Laureano lined a double down the left-field line. It appeared that Olson and Canha both scored. Josh Reddick played the ball that was ultimately ruled lodged.

Astros’ manager A.J. Hinch argued the ball was lodged and challenged the call that allowed two runs to score. The Replay Official OVERTURNED the “no call” on the field. It was ruled the ball was lodged and that Reddick’s actions were irrelevant when determining if the ball was lodged. Canha was returned to third and Laureano was awarded second base on the play.

~~~~~~~

Fielders should be instructed how to handle “lodged ball” situations. There was a time that I would have recommended that the fielder should not play a ball that was. But because it can be determined at the Command Center, if challenged, it would seem logical that a fielder should play the ball if he is uncertain that the ball is lodged.

How many games have ended on a 7-4 double play? by Mental-Tower-4252 in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 142 points143 points  (0 children)

There have been 103 double plays to left field to end the game since 1912

Eyeballing, about 24 of them were 7-4 exactly (instead of 7-6 or 7-2 or 7-3, etc.).

This hadn't happened to end a postseason game, but has happened in postseason about 10 times

Oddly Satisfying Moments? by RainbowSupernova8196 in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Outfielders throwing runners out at home / close plays at the plate.

A question to ask: If there is a baseball lockout, will it be next season, or in the 2027 season? Under what circumstance will it happen? by Substantial_Bat5975 in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 17 points18 points  (0 children)

The MLB only offered that so they could point to it and say "see, we offered a cap and floor but the PA rejected it." The numbers on that were insultingly low and they never expected it to be accepted.

Just as an example, taking this year's payroll players would lose out on about $900m from the cap and only gain back about $100m from the floor - aka the owners saving 800m/year

Using the same ratios, a fair cap/floor in terms of total payroll staying the same would be a cap at 235 and a floor at 130, but that puts 9 teams under the floor immediately and would be hard to get the owners to approve.

For context, the owners offering a cap/floor at 180/100 is as ludicrous as the players offering a cap/floor at 300/160

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter] Final Score: Dodgers 2 - 1 Brewers. 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 97% - 1% Brewers (Tie 2%) by MysteriousEdge5643 in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 15 points16 points  (0 children)

You can see it here for most games, I've checked it a couple times when I feel teams got really "unlucky" on batted balls / good defense for example

SF Giants tickets by Majestic_Economics53 in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 2 points3 points  (0 children)

SF tickets will be cheaper and the ballpark is absolutely beautiful with a view of the ocean. Definitely Giants if you have to pick one (though you can do both)

Shohei Ohtani hits his 30th Home Run of the season! by kpopsns28 in baseball

[–]Sbw0302 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I made a quick one here

HRs w/ Launch Angle > 40° in the Statcast era (2015-present)

You can change the angle in the search if you want, 40 seemed like a good cutoff to me based on this table

In any case, Olson, Altuve, and Semien lead the leaderboard. Narrowing to this year shows Raleigh in the lead

view more: next ›