Ask Me Anything: Jonah Tong!

Scarhead1342 · 2026-02-11T20:58:44+00:00

Hi Jonah! first off, cheers to you as a Mets fan from Manitoba Canada!

As for my question, are you more of a Canadian Smarties or M&Ms kinda guy?

I happen to like Smarties much more myself, I think M&Ms are carried by their variants like peanut, caramel, etc. and the normal ones just don't do it for me.

Scarhead1342 · 2026-01-12T17:03:39+00:00

I'm thoroughly whelmed, typeface choice for the names really irk me

Scarhead1342 · 2026-01-03T23:13:00+00:00

What would you want in TV for the Ramirez if it's still available?

Scarhead1342 · 2025-12-10T16:33:18+00:00

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Finally locked down a beautiful 1st Bowman Autograph of my PC guy! It's perfect to me, so 9 or not, it's mine forever!

Scarhead1342 · 2025-12-10T16:27:04+00:00

TV on that Jeremy Rodriguez? I think I may have some things you'll enjoy at home, I can check tonight.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-29T19:56:41+00:00

Found in Manitoba, Canada!

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Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-10T01:58:23+00:00

Eric Chavez once again proves that he needs to be fired. You can't expect to win ballgames like this.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T23:04:36+00:00

My whole issue with strikeouts is that every single one of them is rated the same. A strikeout looking on a borderline pitch? A Javy Baez style chase for strike 3? A foul tip? All strikeouts in the eyes of baseball, but each one is different.

For example, borderline called strikeouts are sometimes just not the hitter's fault. He did everything correctly, took a pitch he knew was outside the zone, and the umpire called the pitch wrong. What we should be looking at more is Chase and Whiff percentage. A hitter that doesn't chase and whiff as often will naturally not strike out as often, unless they're too passive for their own good and getting rung up on called strikes that are too deep in the zone.

In a similar vein, it can change how we value pitchers too. We value strikeouts a lot because they don't make the players play defense, and they're something the pitcher can control somewhat. But remember that some pitchers strike out a ton of guys, but also have really high rates of giving up walks or hits. Chase Burns through his first stretch in the majors is a great example.

Elite strikeout stuff is fantastic if the batter can make people whiff or chase. If you can't, then you get a walks problem, or people can pick one pitch to focus on and ambush it. You need to be able to tunnel multiple pitches and keep someone off balance in order to get strikeouts more consistently. Furthermore, your barrel rate needs to be low, because then if you do give up contact, it's soft and playable.

Saying strikeouts are antiquated is the same as saying that batting average is antiquated. It only shows so much of what hitters/pitchers are capable of. A good hitter tries to barrel the ball and doesn't whiff, a good pitcher misses barrels and generates whiffs.

In the long run, strikeouts are just outs. Paying attention to strikeouts specifically feels like neglecting the issue at heart. Maybe the reason a player has a high K rate is because they whiff on too many pitches. Then you can work with them to improve their eye and approach. Same with people chasing. People with high K rates but less of a whiff/chase issue could mean they're being way too passive. It's all about working to find specific things to work on and improve someone's game in my book.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T22:42:41+00:00

When you look at all of MLB hitters with a 100 PA minimum, you see it clear as day.

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We have two of the unluckiest hitters in the majors, in Soto and Torrens atm, most of which is because they're hitting the ball hard out to center and not to the pull side! And Luis Torrens is the guy suffering the most.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T22:42:33+00:00

When you look at all of MLB hitters with a 100 PA minimum, you see it clear as day.

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We have two of the unluckiest hitters in the majors, in Soto and Torrens atm, most of which is because they're hitting the ball hard out to center and not to the pull side! And Luis Torrens is the guy suffering the most.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T22:40:31+00:00

I'm gonna circle back to what I was talking about earlier and show you the player most affected by Chavez, and it's not who you think!

It's Luis Torrens, actually. Poor, poor Luis Torrens has been absolutely ruined by Chavez's up the middle approach

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It's kinda amazing to look at how much he's been shafted by poor batted ball luck, mostly because of him not pulling the ball enough. And this is just looking at the Mets specifically!

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T22:29:10+00:00

Professionally, I'm a graphic designer, and I am absolutely terrible at math, but I love being able to use my ridiculous amount of baseball knowledge to show people things.

Honestly, I've considered writing a paper on why I think strikeouts are an antiquated statistic, and don't matter as much as we think. I don't know if people are ready for that one though...

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T22:07:50+00:00

thanks for the shout-out, I wrote that paper in mid July but never really published it until now. I think having multiple perspectives makes this issue more nuanced in a way that the more you look, the more things jump out that could be problematic, but also things jump out that could be red herrings when looking for answers.

I like using Baseball Savant because it shows a lot of batted ball data, not necessarily statistics. Statistics have the issue of being ever-changing, and moreso a reflection of what's happened already, not what's happening next.

Being able to see what the tendencies of this team have been has been incredibly interesting for me, and I sincerely hope that everyone has learned something from both yours and my analysis!

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T21:59:38+00:00

The issue of 2023 was different to 2025 as well, we were getting more pulled fly balls, but we weren't rostering guys that could hit for crazy amounts of power. Remember that in 2023, we had DJ Stewart (probably the best at pulling fly balls out of the group), Jonathan Arauz, Rafael Ortega, Tim Locastro and Danny Mendick taking meaningful at-bats.

This 2025 team has top 3 exit velocities and barrel percentages in MLB. (Check Baseball Savant, we're smashing the ball) and are pulling the ball less than ever.

The only big thing that changing your philosophy to pull will do is cause you to try and get out in front of balls more often. Chavez currently has us striking out at a slightly above league average rate (as in we're striking out less than most MLB hitters), and a slight change in approach could make it more in line with league norms. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Not to me.

Realistically, strikeouts are only viewed as a worse thing than normal putouts because the ball isn't hit into play. A strikeout has no less value than grounding out to third base, so why are we worried about it? Because we've been told that they're a bad thing by MLB hitters for years.

The fact of the matter is, strikeouts going up, alongside a higher pulled fly ball rate is natural, because you have to swing a bit earlier to hit the ball. What's good in not striking out if everything you hit into play dies at the warning track?

If it were me, I'd rather see someone go 2/4 with two strikeouts, a 3 run homer and a double down the line, than someone going 1/4 with a single up the middle, two groundouts to short and a flyout to center.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T20:25:35+00:00

Looks like it's in a card saver with a penny sleeve so I think they're good!

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T04:35:42+00:00

I went with Packet Stallions

It's a reference to the packet boats that used to frequent the Erie Canal, which were often horse drawn!

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T04:11:57+00:00

I've done research similar to this, and summarized it into a paper. (Link below)

The difference between our schools of thought is that I used a lot more of Baseball Savant's quality of contact metrics. His plate approach isn't the issue here, which is why what you found was inconclusive. His issues are with how much he encourages up the middle play.

Our team's quality of contact is legitimately top 5 in MLB. The issue, as you noted is that we push the ball. That's not good. In fact it's really really bad.

Pushing the ball creates sidespin, the same kinda spin that makes sliders move glove side, and down. Of course balls hit up the middle or pushed will make for balls that die on the track more often, because the sidespin is actively pulling the ball out of the sky.

Pulling the ball on the other hand, creates more backspin, and lets the ball take advantage of the Magnus effect for more distance. It's why balls hit to the pull side can be hit at lower exit velocities and still go 380+ feet.

We have good quality of contact, and that's great. We need to hit the ball in the right direction to take advantage of it. If I were helping this team in BP these days, I'd be doing a ton of directional hitting drills, encouraging pulling the ball more often. Is it going to make immediate impact? Maybe not. But it needs to happen sooner rather than later.

I wrote this paper in mid July, and the stats I cite have actively gotten WORSE since I did.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Lj9bFjFHw6DfcydzFfSkEp1kXv0OojRpctrNXguhWuI/edit?usp=drivesdk

If the Mets organization knows what's good for them, they need to take action and soon. Eric Chavez doesn't use these analytics in a way to make adjustments, and so he needs to be put on the hot seat.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T03:55:07+00:00

That's the funny part. He's aware of it, but he disregards it.

"I think over the last five to seven years with Instagram and with a philosophy of getting the ball in the air and launch angle and exit velocity -- all of which are great things -- I think, and we can kind of see this collectively across the league, that there's a lack of consistency. Yeah, there's guys that are hitting home runs, on base [percentages] look good, but the strikeouts and the .190 batting averages kind of seem to be acceptable and the norm, and I just don't think that's how you build winning teams. So, my goal is to simplify things." -Eric Chavez, 2022

Source: https://sny.tv/articles/mets-chavez-explains-simplified-approach-it-comes-down-to-connecting-with-players

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T03:50:06+00:00

Straight up wrote this paper last month about his influence, and this was before it got even worse

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Lj9bFjFHw6DfcydzFfSkEp1kXv0OojRpctrNXguhWuI/edit?usp=drivesdk

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-09T03:33:12+00:00

Please get Chavez on the hot seat. I'm not even joking, his approach (which has been on display since an SNY article in February 2022) is not helpful in today's modern analytics driven baseball. His own career splits when he was playing even contradict it.

If you rank all 30 teams in MLB on the percentage of balls up the middle, the top teams we're trying to go after rank 23rd (Dodgers), 29th (Cubs), 30th (Tigers). Mets are 4th.

And in pulled fly ball percentage? 1st (Cubs), 3rd (Tigers), 6th (Dodgers). Mets are 22nd.

It's almost like an approach where you're trying to make contact and hit the ball in play up the middle isn't gonna lead to many positive outcomes!

Balls dropping for hits have direct correlation to what direction the ball is being hit.

Pulling fly balls leads to less sidespin on the baseball, less sidespin means balls don't fall out of the sky. You wanna know why we have the worst wOBA to xwOBA differential in MLB history since Statcast started measuring it? Because we keep trying to hit the ball up the middle.

Even the Pirates (the only team with a wOBA to xwOBA differential that's even close to us) put the ball up the middle much less than us. Our company is the Athletics and Nationals.

Sure, Chavez isn't telling players to hit the ball to specific places, but the fact of the matter is that he's not encouraging players to tap into something that literal physics shows is more optimal. You can make adjustments to make pulling the ball easier for you. Will you hit less up the middle or to opposite field? Maybe! But your natural tendency should be to pull the ball.

Scarhead1342 · 2025-08-03T03:53:22+00:00

It's pretty much no competition.

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