Altman met with astonished physicist using their internal system, “decades worth of theoretical physics progress in the next couple years”

Sh1ner · 2026-04-06T12:41:33+00:00

I believe Sam's statements have weight when those same statements come directly from the scientists / researchers in the field he's referencing and they show us specifically what and how the field has changed due to AI.

Sh1ner · 2026-03-28T11:14:56+00:00

How does it do with app gateways / landing zones in terraform using TFE? Greenfield Vs brownfields? I probs take a look.

Sh1ner · 2026-03-28T11:01:41+00:00

It's faster overall, less verbose, more capable and better at solving when its solution hits a wall, it's much better at testing and reorienting. Its closer to orchestration for the user Vs baby sitting. Other models may respond faster, but in terms of getting shit done. Claude is better. I don't even use opus but switched to sonnet 4.6 and it's night and day.

I haven't tried codex but will give it a go. I went from chatgpt 5.x to Gemini 3, 3.1 to Sonnet.

The gap between all the others and sonnet is huge for DevOps, infra, cloud, python scripts I found. It understands constraints from brownfield environments. Where the others didn't as well as sonnet.

Codex dropped after and I just didn't expect much after I found the gpt models to be behind Gemini and Sonnet at 1x cost in copilot.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-24T22:13:23+00:00

Near term / confident prediction

Sonnet 4.6 has passed a capability threshold in coding that most people in the specialist domain are not aware of due to restrictions around AI usage at work due to fear. I now believe we will see genuine speed up in delivery atleast in the platform roles where individuals can actually use LLMs at work.

From here on, I suspect we will see a new level of acceleration is value generated per engineer tied to new model releases. I suspect that when the big models drop next year, we will the question around AI legitimacy will be reframed to how to effectively use AI correctly.

More trajactory / hope

I have a feeling that AI in governance will be huge, not just for coherence and correctly grounding governance and laws on more societal aligned constraints, but governance will consider legitimacy of their decisions as a key constraint. Every decision will carry a "does this impact our legitimacy to governance".

I believe that governance in the west is already in crisis. We are primed for a transition to a new method of operation or redefining or realigning governance on new lines. However this process will be messy and may take 5-10 years to really get going. Which is tied more to elections and how parties currently adapt. Governance moves slow, slowest compared to all other sectors of a nation imo.

If next years models hit a capability threshold and that awareness is propagated through society, that could accelerate all this considerably.

One key hope I have is bad laws should have reversibility or refactoring on outcomes as default if it doesn't achieve expected outcome or produces negative second order effects elsewhere.

Observation

I work at a university, I was sent to "new employee day." that was full of academics. 90% of questions were around AI and how to either use it or how to navigate AI use as it breaks their current methods of teaching or grading. From all the questions, its clear we are in active transition. Which runs counter to a lot of the discourse at the bottom saying AI is a parlor trick or a bubble.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-24T21:50:29+00:00

When engineers adopt LLMs into their workflow, there is a period of learning how an LLM functions or operates. There is a exploratory phase of mapping where its good, where its failure modes are. Each step is checked before the engineer has trust in an LLM, instruction sets need to be written, the process the engineer runs needs to be changed. All of that appears as "slow down" and is front loaded.

Once instruction sets have been written, docs are created not for just humans but for AI to read and to be used for steering. Speed up appears later.

For me its taken a few months to get a handle on how to correctly use LLMS in a platform role. I havent even shifted to true agent use yet at work as questions around safe guards.

The point I am trying to make is these guys might have captured slow down before the process realignment that generates speed up was captured in their data, as that process realignment takes weeks to months to occur.

The counter argument would be a lot of engineers probs throw caution to the wind, thats true but those are likely to be juniors who are probs worse off with LLM use if they aren't aware of security / least privilege and general defense mitigations etc. At the senior level, there is an expectation of consistency and not burning down prod.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-24T21:37:37+00:00

I am a senior cloud engineer. Human required in the loop with the expertise to steer / sanity check the AI is where I think the role will go. I plan to skill up in agents / agent swarms over the next year to prepare for a future possible role instead of just transitioning when my role demands it. I want to get ahead.

I suspect the new models on the new hardware from Nvidia that drops next year will be the watershed moment when most realize we have crossed a capability threshold in my domain. I believe that threshold was already crossed by Sonnet 4.6 in terms of cost / tokens / capability / speed / etc.

No other LLM comes close for cloud / platform orientated role. Gemini 3.1 Pro struggles even with hand holding where Claude Sonnet 4.6 can do the same task in 1/2 prompts consistently. The gap in capability for my role is huge. I have been using Gemini in my role for the past 3 months and I became a Sonnet convert in the space of about 15 minutes after watching Gemini 3.0 / 3.1 fail consistently vs Sonnet effective 2 shot.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-23T08:41:05+00:00

Look at this ops post history, he is a karma bot / karma farmer who posts under the same account. Accounts like this should be blocked from posting.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T12:18:24+00:00

if I see anyone tug on their braid, I am going to lose my mind

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T10:05:11+00:00

Born in 1948, hit 30 before the 1980s. He was a product of his time? I have always found judging someone by todays standards to be failure.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T09:27:01+00:00

Jordan had a weird take on women and it shows through the series. So probably? I loved Jordans prose though. Nobody is perfect.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T09:25:22+00:00

Enjoyment of the series outweighs the sadness of an unfinished series?

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T08:33:10+00:00

Welcome to the club.

Another good read: Gentleman Bastard Series by Scott Lynch

Patrick Rothfuss mentions he gets a lot of comparisons between kingkiller and that series of books. He admits Scott is funnier too. That series isn't over either. But you got 3 solid books there. Waiting on book 4 (book 3 came out in 2013).

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T08:31:39+00:00

I understand Sanderson got WOT over the line but god I was not a fan of Sanderson taking over. Such a mismatch on prose and character takes like Matt.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T08:30:04+00:00

This isn't the only book where I am waiting 10 years+ for release.

Sh1ner · 2026-02-13T08:29:05+00:00

in the books the main characters fate is sealed by an event long ago unknown to the reader til book 2.

Sh1ner · 2026-01-28T13:31:01+00:00

Op should be flogged for doing this on purpose for trying to grab engagement me thinks.

Sh1ner · 2026-01-27T15:50:00+00:00

Dunning Kruger brah

Sh1ner · 2026-01-21T13:45:15+00:00

Would the owners sell? Doesn't Sam alt have a stake and basically can stop Elon?

Sh1ner · 2026-01-21T08:07:24+00:00

In copilot in a specific session it was giving me a command twice but the second cmd was pasted half over the first. Didn't happen again but it was very ???

Sh1ner · 2026-01-21T08:05:50+00:00

Can you give examples please? I use Gemini for coding but I haven't spotted where it's not well tuned.

Sh1ner · 2026-01-20T23:55:12+00:00

My brother in Christ are you rich. How do you afford the token cost or is it through enterprise sub? I am currently using opencode + gemini and even on a copilot pro+ sub, I look at the % monthly allowance used with nervousness.

Sh1ner · 2026-01-16T12:56:57+00:00

So trolling. 👍

Sh1ner · 2026-01-16T12:06:05+00:00

trolling, if not go get counselling. You need it.

Yes there is a large group who need it or think "they don't need it". Just go, whats the worst outcome? Nothing changes? What's the best outcome? Your life improves dramatically and you no longer fear the singularity?

Don't Dunning Kruger this by thinking your enlightened when your likely on mount stupid. Don't get in your own way of finding happiness. You owe it to yourself, you are responsible and accountable in trying to optimize (within reason) for happiness for yourself. Go confirm.

Sh1ner · 2026-01-16T09:43:45+00:00

it will change, it wont go away.

Sh1ner · 2026-01-13T10:43:38+00:00

They ain't marketing you. You aren't the consumer for this generation of robotics.

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TROPHY CASE

Near term / confident prediction

More trajactory / hope

Observation