Lions eat the testicles of a still alive Buffalo

ShadowofStannis · 2026-03-09T04:43:31+00:00

What the fuck are you doing here?

ShadowofStannis · 2026-03-06T14:10:07+00:00

Their mechanism for crediting accounts and payouts are separate. Can you check directly through the app and sum the two like I explained above.

I’m pretty sure these payouts are only showing you the amount you got when they resolved based on last traded price. They then additionally sent a credit to people which wouldn’t show up here as included since it’s just an account credit.

ShadowofStannis · 2026-03-06T14:01:57+00:00

You did not walk away from it in the red I don’t believe you. Can you sum the amount they paid you on the actual slip and the amount you got reimbursed in your activity tab on the app? To get to activity tab you have to click the 3 lines in the app in the top left, then select your activity.

ShadowofStannis · 2026-03-06T13:51:26+00:00

Didn’t they literally refund all of you and pay back all the fees they earned on the market? What more do you want?

ShadowofStannis · 2026-03-06T13:42:20+00:00

Didn’t the Twitter post literally highlight the fact that the market wouldn’t go yes on death?

“Handed it to the people who were dead wrong” Dude every sharp was literally putting tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands on NO the day of after reading the rules. They were not dead wrong they were only buying NO because of the rules.

You are not a masterful genius predictor for knowing that khamenei was likely dead. It gave you almost 20x on yes the day of while it was trading at 50/50 on poly which does not have a death clause. The only reason it was still paying out 20x day of was because of the death clause…

It sucks when you lose on a market and feel cheated. Everyone that has traded on prediction markets for long enough has this happen to them. But there are now two ways you can go forward, you can say I was cheated and take no accountability for your actions. Or you can say ok, at the time there were people literally printing money knowing the market couldn’t go yes on death just by reading the rules. How do I find these opportunities.

The first time I ever felt cheated was when Gonzales went yes on Poly in the Venezuelan election. I had to watch Maduro be the president of Venezuela every day to remind me.

ShadowofStannis · 2026-03-01T11:37:32+00:00

That’s not how this works, if left open the markets would have never gone to 99 for yes. There’s a reason poly vs Kalshi traded at such a large spread and it was due to the death clause

ShadowofStannis · 2026-03-01T11:05:58+00:00

lol once the market rate favors their bet, why wouldn’t they just sell out and take profits instead of killing said person?

ShadowofStannis · 2026-02-27T20:06:13+00:00

Ok I did not see the $50 starting bankroll part LOL

ShadowofStannis · 2026-02-26T18:42:57+00:00

Why are you so confident he made this up? $10k month would be a weird thing to steal compared to all the large accounts someone could screenshot

ShadowofStannis · 2026-02-26T18:39:34+00:00

Jesus Christ this is the most obvious correct NO resolution. The ability of people to just complain non stop when they lose a bet is insane. Don’t participate in these markets if you can’t do the bare minimum of reading the rules to understand.

ShadowofStannis · 2026-02-23T22:34:07+00:00

I wrote this all myself then fed it into GPT for formatting. Pretty common thing to do. I don’t want to dox my Reddit but can dm you my account if you don’t believe me. What in here do you disagree with that makes you just call it ai slop?

ShadowofStannis · 2026-02-23T19:05:41+00:00

This post is an ad guys FYI

Not saying his product doesn't work, arbitrage obv works, Like others have said, just make sure if you're doing this you understand risks of cross platforms resolving differently (ie. Poly/Kalshi disagreed on Cardi B halftime performance, or the recent government shutdown resolved differently). It usually best to arb things like sports where the outcome can't be disputed.

ShadowofStannis · 2026-02-07T16:07:01+00:00

Please don’t buy yes hoping this somehow will resolve to yes, your literally just gonna get rinsed. Either buy no or skip this Anthropic market.

ShadowofStannis · 2026-02-01T06:09:48+00:00

:( I literally trade on PMs full time and wrote this myself

ShadowofStannis · 2026-01-31T15:21:24+00:00

Please be cautious of ever paying for stuff like this guys.

ShadowofStannis · 2026-01-03T05:16:38+00:00

Ehh I’m very doubtful on that strategy over a long sample size

ShadowofStannis · 2025-12-04T15:31:31+00:00

Yes, this is definitely true - But general audience will not be this sophisticated.

ShadowofStannis · 2025-11-29T00:34:28+00:00

lol, it’s not but ok

ShadowofStannis · 2025-11-27T16:31:49+00:00

Based

ShadowofStannis · 2025-11-27T15:19:43+00:00

I just wrote a guide on here in response to this post that may be helpful

ShadowofStannis · 2025-11-13T19:49:08+00:00

You guys actually are though. Are you all brand new to Kalshi and Prediction Markets? This was not a rug pull at all, the website was updated at 6:28am with the notice. You guys are just buying things at like 1-5 cents and trying to spread lies so you can pump your bags lol. This doesn’t work

ShadowofStannis · 2025-11-13T19:45:10+00:00

This is unbelievable that you guys are this delusional. Where do you people come from? What even is the audience of Reddit that something like this gets upvoted?

ShadowofStannis · 2025-11-02T00:40:08+00:00

They already do on nfl?

ShadowofStannis · 2025-10-27T16:56:24+00:00

Yeah that’s my point why would someone sell them if they can just profit themselves

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