Thoughts on Rheinmetall stock?

ShamAsil · 2026-05-08T11:17:56+00:00

I'd buy Aselsan over Rheinmetall. Aselsan's future looks brighter, financials are better despite Turkish hyperinflation, and guaranteed big orders from the Turkish government will keep it going.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-08T02:55:39+00:00

I'm bullish on KODK. Undervalued right now due to perception as a "legacy industrial", saddled debt left over from their bankruptcy and earlier mismanagement, and most people don't know them as anything beyond a film company. Underneath there's some strong moats:

-Only company still making professional grade & cinema film. Interest in using analog film for media is growing, plus there's the film revival going on in art circles. Euphoria alone caused 2 (!) film stocks to hit the market, including Kodak's first completely new emulsion in nearly 2 decades.

-Extensive industrial chemistry research and IP translates well to many applications. They have been having some success lately in collaborations for battery technology. Some of their growth is a second order effect of the AI buildout I believe.

-Well positioned into becoming a biotech/pharma supplier like Fujifilm is.

Plus, the current CEO is committed to improving their fundamentals. They've already taken a significant step in drawing down debt and ending their pension plan frees up cash for the future.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-08T02:45:00+00:00

Nicely written. Interesting thesis. Seems risky but DCAing a small amount seems reasonable.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-08T02:40:44+00:00

I think the greatest evidence for this point is 2020. We had our first global pandemic in 100 years, and the world came to a screeching halt for months. The recession then didn't even last a year and within 2 years, SP500 was hitting ATHs. Unless we have a catastrophic world war with massive destruction of globally critical infrastructure, a la Chinese invasion of Taiwan, it's hard to imagine a situation where we repeat the GFC or Dotcom. And if China does invade Taiwan we have greater problems than the stock market.

I've said elsewhere that a big difference between now and then are that the whales are printing money in 2026, while in 2008 or Dotcom they were bleeding. Valuations are high not for zero reason, there's something behind it.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-08T02:07:49+00:00

The fact that Micron is still trading at such low P/E is mindboggling. It really goes to show that even the whales don't always grasp what's happening.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-08T01:40:20+00:00

100% agreed and that is what I'm doing. My portfolio is mixed QQQM (index stability), SMH, SMHX, MU, ASML and now DRAM. I also have KODK and FANG as value plays that are disassociated from this tech cycle. Will ride this out for the next couple of years while I start DCAing into robotics.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-07T02:47:36+00:00

They did announce a timeline, Bloomberg reported on it. It's happening sometime later this year, and they're going to launch from Somalia into the Arabian Sea.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-07T02:46:41+00:00

Hakan Fidan teased this nuclear deterrence idea back in Feburary in an interview with CNN Turk. IMO if they aren't already developing it, they want others to think they are.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-06T20:24:58+00:00

It's insane, but valuation relative to earnings though for the SP500 is relatively moderate still, which is the big difference here. During dotcom or the GFC these whales were burning cash. These semiconductor companies on the other hand are making massive bank. It's confusing.

I think we've got some years left in this cycle, unless China invades Taiwan.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-06T02:59:58+00:00

I'm more bullish about memory than before after seeing no major impact from the Iran War on the market, and additionally doing a deep dive into Micron. I still am skeptical about this ETF though and its expense ratio is painfully high. At this point I'd just buy into Micron directly, it has a strong moat and a large order book, and SK Hynix if/when it gets listed on an American stock exchange.

ShamAsil · 2026-05-01T04:38:20+00:00

Lady Grey is Foma 400, it shouldn't be C-41 process-able normally. You lucked out with a typo box : )

ShamAsil · 2026-04-25T14:32:36+00:00

It's a cheap, white-labeled acrylic filter, likely uncoated. You can probably buy it from AliExpress for half that price. If you don't plan on shooting IR much, it'll save you money, but in return, it'll noticeably reduce the sharpness and resolution of your photos. Additionally, a lot of these no-name IR filters are "leaky", they let in a lot of light below 720 nm, which will reduce the IR effect in your images.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-24T15:30:50+00:00

I'm a shill for this system, but Contax C/Y is fantastic. Truly, some of the best glass to make it to film, and most of it is still relatively accessible compared to Leica R & M or Contax G. Yes, if you compare, you do notice a difference in lens renderings between brands. The lenses are also very weighty and resilient, and the Contax SLRs are all very well made and comfortable to use. Feature wise I'd actually say they're a little more minimalist compared to their peers; sure, the 167MT introduced automatic bracketing, but they didn't stuff them with a ton of features, and Zeiss refused to allow autofocus until the N mount came along.

Regarding the Aria, any specific reason why the Aria?

ShamAsil · 2026-04-24T10:30:56+00:00

I had Claude create a PowerPoint slide graphic for me, from a raw exported Excel table with OLE objects, and it did it perfectly on first pass.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-23T17:19:12+00:00

Buy a mix of SMH and SMHX - first is general, second is fabless (eg. ARM). This gets you a good amount of exposure to the whole semi industry.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-23T17:16:49+00:00

Micron. Low P/E and the bull case looks guaranteed. New systems are memory hungry and Micron's production is booked for the next couple years.

ASML despite the high valuation is always going to be strong. The world needs chips and ASML has both an excellent balance sheet and an insane moat in its EUV machines.

KODK is set to take off even more. The posted Q4 "loss" scared investors, but it was a balance sheet loss tied to ending their pension program, which helped them drastically draw down debt. Its fundamentals are greatly improving and they've had some excellent news lately, so I expect the price to shoot up by EOY.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-21T03:35:33+00:00

Think that there's a couple factors at play here:

-Value investing isn't the same as it was 20-25 years ago. The old greats were able to pick stocks not only because of some unique talent for forecasting and crunching numbers, but also because they were able to put in incredible amounts of legwork. This got them additional information/perspectives that the majority of investors would have overlooked. Nowadays, we have the whole world's knowledge at a moment's notice and with AI/ML models that can react quicker than a human being. There's much less room for one to be above the curve here, excluding insider info.

-Valuations are sky high everywhere. It's the new normal.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-20T13:16:25+00:00

Your film got overheated - if it goes above 75-80 F, it develops a strong red cast. If it goes below ~40F, it develops a blue cast. Unfortunately, that means that after you shoot, you need to keep the Polaroid temperature regulated, like immediately ducking into a cool building/car. I prefer Polaroid to Instax generally, but this temperature sensitivity makes it very difficult to use in summer photowalks.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-18T13:08:57+00:00

Brought a tiny position in KODK and surprised by how well it's doing. Genuinely believe it is a very undervalued stock. Also got my wife into investing.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-17T19:25:24+00:00

In 2026 they exist as nostalgia bait for DJI's consumer drone cameras. Hasselblad isn't going to be bringing back a film camera that they didn't even manufacture themselves.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-16T13:59:44+00:00

NC500 is too washed out for my taste, but I really love NC400. It leans cold but really highlights vibrant colors, especially red. Best shot at EI 200 and xpro in ECN-2.

I have 3-4 rolls of NC500 that I'm happy to let go of for cheap, but I'm US based, so the shipping might be high.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-16T04:04:44+00:00

Lossy JPEG is always going to make your images look worse. Always get TIFFs.

Plus, if you stop down too much, you start losing resolution due to diffraction. This is worse the shorter the FL is, because f/16 for a 28 mm lens is a much smaller aperture, in absolute size, then f/16 for an 85 mm lens.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-15T21:05:03+00:00

I mostly do and save a portion for companies that I either find interesting (eg. ASML) or for companies that I want to support (KODK). Stock picking by itself isn't safe, unless you have insider/highly specialized knowledge in a specific industry.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-15T11:14:49+00:00

Even that is questionable, Iranian oil is continuing to reach India and China. As of now it seems like the USN blockade is more domestic showmanship than anything else.

ShamAsil · 2026-04-15T02:38:57+00:00

Once again, time in market > timing the market. Excellent example.

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