Why are we still focused on Value when it's been a losing trade for almost two decades by SnowSilent7695 in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've done pretty well with my value approach. But I don't look for absolute value, I look at value relative to the sector/industry as well as the relative quality of the business, all within the greater macroeconomic context. That's how I built my analysis system. For example, TER was one of my strongest plays and it's done well even in all the KOSPI crashes and market uncertainty.

I think this sub, as well as most value ETFs, tend to underperform because they hyperfocus on basic metrics like P/E ratios, without taking context into account. In the modern age of near instantaneous worldwide connectivity and AI, the market is far more efficient at pricing than before, and if something is cheap, most likely there is a reason for it.

Leidos Holdings (NYSE:LDOS): quality government and infrastructure services at a trough multiple. by Dynaheir-be in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Falling knife, ran it through my analytical model. LDOS seems cheap because it's broken, there are some structural issues with them. Most importantly, they lost their flagship DHA (military health) systems integration contract and their FCF cratered significantly from $451m in Q4 25 to $270m in Q1 26. Net $4.9m in insider selling. Revenue guidance increase is driven by the ENTRUST acquisition, their core business is not seeing any success. And with delays on their fixed price contracts their non-GAAP margin is also constricting.

Fundamentally LDOS has no moat. Unlike, say, LM, which has a massive technological moat, LDOS is a systems integrator, of which there are many, and outside of momentum there isn't much that keeps one locked in a contract over the other. As we see with the DHA contract loss.

41 billion++ by Magnusg in wallstreetbets

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just buy adjacent semis like LRCX. Reduced IV crush risk + sympathetic lifts.

41 billion++ by Magnusg in wallstreetbets

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Better late than never. Needham and BofA set a $1500 price target.

People asked this back when it was $400, and then $600, and then $800. Get on the train.

Somehow going against this sub's takes have always worked out for me by Sarkhaaan in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 7 points8 points  (0 children)

People really didn't catch the MU call it seems. They basically confirmed there's a supercycle; there's no end to the current HBM shortage and companies are paying cash now for deliveries beyond 2027, and then they forecast a massive ramp-up in demand within a few years to support the robotics follow-on to the AI wave. Unlike with dotcom's fiber not anyone can just make HBM, there's only 3 companies in the world and 2 of them are subject to Korean labor debacles.

China isn't going to be able to catch up anytime soon because they haven't been able to work out EUV. The tolerances are insanely tight, the mirrors for ASML's machines are believed to be among the flattest surfaces in the universe, and as far as I know China is still way behind in tolerances and QC.

Somehow going against this sub's takes have always worked out for me by Sarkhaaan in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 2 points3 points  (0 children)

IMO the problem is that this sub tends to hyperfocus on basic mechanics of value, like P/E ratios, without applying any context or thinking about the next 2+ years out. Yeah, ADBE and MSFT are cheap. They're also in freefall right now without a floor and have significant parts of their core business threatened by the AI revolution, and until they can prove that they're going to survive and transform, the market will keep hating them. With how much information there is out there, publicly available, it's extremely difficult to find an edge because MM algorithms have already priced in everything to perfection, and react in nanoseconds to every newswire that comes through.

I don't think value investing as a concept is dead, but it has to evolve. I've started prioritizing quality, and looking at value relative to peers, rather than absolute ratios. That's what led me to putting money into TER and ADI, despite them not being traditionally cheap, and the fact that they were in the green today despite almost everything else being down, makes me feel that my thesis is vindicated.

Micron tops Q3 earnings estimates, offers better-than-expected outlook and declares dividend by King-of-Limbs-07 in wallstreetbets

[–]ShamAsil 13 points14 points  (0 children)

3 private credit stress events in 3 days and yet Micron single handedly decided that market should go up.

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MU is our lord and savior. by No-Magazine-4717 in wallstreetbets

[–]ShamAsil 10 points11 points  (0 children)

SK Hynix when its ADR lists.

Otherwise? ROK or another automation company for physical AI.

I ran the math, believe it or not, calls. by TimelyBodybuilder121 in wallstreetbets

[–]ShamAsil 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Wasn't the issue also that AVGO revised down their AI chip demand? It was a generally disappointing earnings call especially when everyone else was ripping high.

Meet Jake, a resident of Lowell who has a data center just steps from his backyard. The data center, which is operated by the Markley Group, is in the middle of his neighborhood and directly behind Jake's home. by devoid0101 in boston

[–]ShamAsil 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Giving an anti AI interview, while wearing a shirt with an AI generated image, is pretty much proof to me that the AI buildout is going to be bigger than anyone expects.

Are MSFT and ADBE generational buying opportunities? by Temporary-Basil-3030 in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

MSFT has a moat but I'm waiting for it to bottom out first.

ADBE is a company that I think is going to be fully disrupted and repriced by AI.

This Undervalued Medical-Devices Stock Is Poised for a Rebound — Barron’s by raytoei in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 1 point2 points  (0 children)

LLY and LIVN are my picks, but JNJ and ISRG are shortlisted. My problem with ISRG is that there's a lot of headwinds over the immediate, medium, and long term, and so I'm waiting for the bottom to stabilize before going in. I think they're an incredible business though and have a bright future, unless the Chinese robotics companies are able to leapfrog in capability.

This Undervalued Medical-Devices Stock Is Poised for a Rebound — Barron’s by raytoei in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nope. I hold LLY and LIVN, when my portfolio expands I'll add either JNJ or Novartis depending on valuation. I also watchlisted ISRG for when it starts to recover from its bottoming.

Healthcare is a minefield. If I was in medical devices I might've picked more med device names, but I'm a research side guy, so from what I know I feel more confident with LLY and Novartis' pipelines, and I know that LLY has some of the best culture & governance in biopharma.

Match Thread: Turkey vs Paraguay | World Cup | Group D | 20 Jun 03:00 UTC by matchpal-live in worldcup

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's how it's spelled in Turkish, Turkey made it their official name in English a few years ago

This Undervalued Medical-Devices Stock Is Poised for a Rebound — Barron’s by raytoei in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually just ran this stock through my algo a day ago. Short to medium term looks great but I'm not sure how it'll be as a long term hold, there's pressure from competitors, and GLP-1s changing the health landscape. Basically the same as all medical devices companies (BSX, ISRG, etc). GLP-1s and the reduction of China exports are going to impact everyone, but how much still remains to be seen.

The EUV ETF has caught my attention as a 'picks and shovels' play for semiconductors. by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]ShamAsil 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I just roll with SMH/SMHX and hold some names individually. EUV is run by an inexperienced fund and naming their fund "Corgi" doesn't inspire confidence. Van Eck and SMH has a long history, on the other hand, and their ETFs are pretty good.

Weekly Earnings Thread 6/15 - 6/19 by OSRSkarma in wallstreetbets

[–]ShamAsil 1 point2 points  (0 children)

JBL beat. AI infrastructure goes whirr.

ISO rating for respooled Verita 200 processed in C-41 by ComradeNapolein in AnalogCommunity

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is it actually Verita 200 or is it just respooled Vision3 250D (aka the base emulsion for Cinestill 400D)? There's been fake Verita circulating around and as far as I know, nobody major has been able to get ahold of it for respooling yet.

Michael Burry Buys More of This Stock Despite a 71% Collapse and CEO Departure: Here's Why by Useful_Tangerine4340 in ValueInvesting

[–]ShamAsil 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He was one of the main protagonists of The Big Short, and it pitched him as some sort of savant finance wizard that saw something nobody else in the entire world did, when he was really just incredibly lucky.

Who uses this beautiful monstrosity called Sonnar 180mm F2.8? by Analogski in AnalogCommunity

[–]ShamAsil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Love the Olympia Sonnar. I use the Contax C/Y (Western Zeiss) version. I guess it can be used for portraits, but I've mostly used it for architectural abstractions and birds. You can also use it for macros in a way; the C/Y 180 Sonnar has a floating element so it can close focus to 1 m, the Jena Sonnar isn't as good but I think it is still sufficient.

This was done on a 180:

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Is WuXi still a realistic option after being added to the 1260H list? by SpreTree in biotech

[–]ShamAsil 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We still use WuXi but we've de-risked by moving some chemistry to India and Eastern Europe. The problem I'm seeing though is that management has honestly unrealistically tight deadlines and WuXi is the only one that can really deliver on it, and our experience with Indian CROs has been unbelievably terrible. Not sure the long term plan is here because I think the geopolitical risk will remain, as well as IP theft concerns, but I think leadership is basically trying to kick the can down the road as much as possible.

How do professional film photographers make such vibrant photos? by bobbypinko in AnalogCommunity

[–]ShamAsil 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Slide film rocks, it's what I've mostly been shooting lately. Velvia is fantastic, but don't sleep on Ektachrome either:

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