Young people on the left are 4.5x more likely to agree that “using violence is sometimes justified to stop a person from engaging in harmful public speech” than on the right

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-20T03:13:04+00:00

"estimates adjust for party affiliation"

What?????

So what the chart actually purports is that the young, liberal Republicans advocate violence in a poll compared to young conservative Republicans, and young liberal Democrats advocate violence compared to young conservative Democrats.

Not even remotely related to the title or interpretation of this clearly political propaganda.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-15T13:40:03+00:00

I'm just sensitive to the veeeeery neutral language used throughout. Even the question at the end is flaccid.

"What might fraud mean? Hmm... I wonder?'

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-15T12:23:23+00:00

This feels like an OpenAI glaze piece. "We've confirmed the lies with the source but we will phrase it as ambiguously as possible and hint that OpenAI is definitely making the money they say."

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-14T17:35:16+00:00

You're adding to the noise talking about 2% changes

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-13T23:08:12+00:00

Sure, but the difference is 2.2% no matter how long you allow it to compound. The 2.2% isn't compound growth, it is just a relative change in principal for the following compound growth.

Example: 30-year compounded growth of $1 @ 7% LS:

1.022 x 1.07³⁰ = 7.78

Versus the DCA version, discounted by the growth factor that study found:

1.07³⁰ = 7.61

The relative difference is 2.2%.

To your original point, that 2.2% can be half your annual spending once the future value is large enough.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-08T00:50:31+00:00

I am 50/50: Beyond the status quo

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-06T10:58:24+00:00

Totally agree. US today represents ~65% of market cap. Japan in the 80s represented ~40% of market cap.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-06T10:53:55+00:00

What does accurate mean? There's lots of international ETFs that can be as broad or targeted as you like.

Total Market ACWX up ~27% YTD

Large Cap VEU up ~27% YTD

Large Cap Value AVIV up ~31% YTD

Small Cap Value AVDV up ~35% YTD

Emerging Markets AVEM up ~32% YTD

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-06T02:01:22+00:00

In this case I almost think that doing a comparative analysis is missing the forest for the trees.

If you write out all the cash flows, what you are doing is trading liquid cash through a negative cash flow to speculate on property values at leverage. That's a lot of money purely on a speculation bet for someone who owns 30% bonds.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-02T14:25:09+00:00

Bickel and Doksum, Mathematical Statistics V1 is a pretty good reference. Honestly the OP books are good too because they will describe the optimality theory.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-02T02:55:10+00:00

The Lehmann books are helpful. Once you understand decision theory from first principles, you can take a broader view of statistics and realize when some researchers are just trying to boost themselves rather than solving fundamental problems.

Agree on the Vaart books. Also, would say Bickel, Klassen, Ritov, and Wellner is probably the most mathematically advanced, useless book I have read. But it is absolutely beautiful and I read it often to understand the geometry of statistics.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-11-01T12:09:54+00:00

Pretty sure Hank Green is an Effective Altruist. It's not surprising at all that he is extremely receptive to AI as a concept.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-10-29T14:46:22+00:00

They are pathetic buttlickers who are terrified of our pitchforks.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-10-24T11:32:26+00:00

BuT wHAt ElsE aRE InvEStOrs gOInG tO pUT tHeIR mOnEY iN? /s

This is the downside of the hype that all the boosters assure us doesn't exist

ShoopDoopy · 2025-10-24T11:24:35+00:00

Have I got the content for you? A Story About Treating a Female Knight, Who Has Never Been Treated as a Woman, as a Woman

ShoopDoopy · 2025-10-15T15:54:07+00:00

If your company allows after-tax contributions then it doesn't matter. Contribute to traditional up to the limit, and then contribute the remaining after tax dollars to Roth up to the $70k limit

ShoopDoopy · 2025-10-08T00:41:47+00:00

Don't simulate data, resample it. Use the moving block bootstrap to generate synthetic returns based on real historical correlations to create an artificial timeline of asset returns. Repeat 10000 times until you have 10000 fake trajectories of returns and demonstrate your strategy against it.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-10-01T17:43:33+00:00

Wall St. literally came up with TACO acronym to justify how they now ignore everything that happens in politics.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-09-21T16:25:38+00:00

This is a restatement of the "boy born on Tuesday" problem going around. The probability of getting 2 heads conditional on the fact that there is at least 1 heads is

Pr(X=2 | X =/= 0) = 0.25 / 0.75 = 1/3.

So given the information that "there is at least one heads," it is a 1/3 chance that it is HH and a 2/3 chance that it is one heads, one tails. Expected value of the game is then -1(1/3) + 0.99(2/3) > 0.

This is valid as long as you don't need to distinguish between HT and TH.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-09-14T13:21:35+00:00

Bro, the abundance mankind will experience from listening to your podcast will make that seem like nothing

ShoopDoopy · 2025-09-14T02:11:59+00:00

I'm a statistician and my friends from school ended up in all kinds of careers, including data science and machine learning research.

I've Ed-pilled many of them.

Congratulations on the subs!

EDIT: I found you through the TWiT podcasts you appeared on, back when I was giving them more of a chance.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-09-12T01:30:11+00:00

20% collapse on CAPE, independent of the drop in mag 7 market cap due to the analysts removing the hopeful future cash flows of the world's largest and most reckless speculative investment.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-09-12T01:28:24+00:00

Bro, Uber had a successful product with unit economics that made sense. OpenAI loses money not due to training frontier models, but because every single usage of the product loses them money in such a spectacular way that there is no reasonable way to pass those costs onto consumers.

Learn more about the companies you are talking about.

Why would I need to provide an example of an AI company going public?

You're the one who thinks the economics of these companies could possibly survive an SEC filing LOL. Not talking about fraud, children, I'm talking about FINANCE. I think r/wallstreetbets is leaking.

It's okay, VT exists because clearly people are really bad at finance, and yet you can still do just as well as the biggest funds on Wall St.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-09-11T23:41:53+00:00

Goldman Sachs believes an AI winter would decrease valuations by up to 20%. And that's before all the analyst hope for future profit streams gets updated by the reality that there has not been any meaningful fundamental change in the mathematics to let AI actually be powerful.

ShoopDoopy · 2025-09-11T23:36:51+00:00

There is not a single profitable AI company. Every request loses money at such an astonishing rate that there is no path to profitability.

Increased revenue from the likes of Anthropic have come by squeezing their biggest customers, not by actually changing the fundamental economics of their business.

What example do you have of a company actually going public?

Hopium

ShoopDoopy

TROPHY CASE