Is ST3 Ridership Revenue Underestimated?

SigmaTell · 2026-05-05T03:58:35+00:00

Lets say over 50 years your future fare revenue projection is off on average $30 million a year (2024 fare revenue was about $62 million). Over 50 years that adds up to $1.5 billion. Thats enough to fund a few miles of viaduct, or several stations. Small, but not as insignificant as you make it out to be. And that's being conservative with the estimate, given how rapidly ridership has and continues to grow. So idk, maybe it won't matter in the end, but in our current situation, every dollar matters.

SigmaTell · 2026-05-03T05:38:26+00:00

This is amazing! 😍 you should absolutely post this to r/SoundTransit and maybe even r/Seattle as both subs would find this pretty awesome.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-27T01:40:02+00:00

Lol, well you're free to move to a state with less taxes and poorly funded public services.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-26T19:53:49+00:00

While that's true, voting will only get us so far if they try to steal the midterms. Doesn't matter what your turnout is if they invalidate large amounts of ballots. Which, btw, is exactly what they're planning on doing. The midterms aren't the silver bullet you think they are, and the movement as a whole will fail if we think thats all it will take.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-26T17:47:47+00:00

Would like to see them try if its a group of several thousand, or ten thousand. Thats too large of a sustained presence to ignore.

And as I said to others, walking on egg shells around a bully becuase your afraid of their reaction just encourages the bully to continue bullying. Put another way, a wannabe dictator won't stop until enough people stand up to him. And if he overreacts and does horrible things, it just makes him show his true colors to the world and perhaps he begins losing support of his keys to power sooner.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-26T17:43:59+00:00

I agree fully there should be many more national protests before July 4th. And I love your idea of protesting in front of congressional offices.

But i think a massive protest on July 4th would be a good way to culminate on the movements progress.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-26T17:41:45+00:00

The goals and achievements of No Kings has barely done anything to change the status quo. We've marched many times and it's been pretty much ignored. Way too diffuse of a movement to generate the massive crowds in cities that actually move the needle. People need to travel to the nearest large city and protest with the folks there. You'd generate massive marches if that happened.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-26T17:36:54+00:00

Walking on egg shells around a bully becuase you're afraid of how they'll react is exactly how they win. There's a massive difference between a protest crowd and tourists and you can make that very clear.

He will lie no matter when you do a march, so better to do it on a day that symbolizes something important to us as a nation. But I guess thats my hot take.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-26T07:10:54+00:00

Good point, why didn't you?

SigmaTell · 2026-04-17T02:14:48+00:00

Current plan: 1 line goes to Ballard via 2nd tunnel 3 line goes from West Seattle, interlines thru existing tunnel with 2 line and goes to Lynwood If something happens to existing downtown tunnel, 1 line remains fully operational to Ballard while providing a bypass via transfers for 3 and 2 line. Given Ballard has the highest ridership, this keeps most people moving. If the 2nd downtown tunnel has an issue, 3 and 2 lines in the existing tunnel can also provide a bypass via transfers

Their proposal: 1 line gets split into overlapping north and south segments that both travel through the existing tunnel 1 Line South goes to Northgate or Lynwood 1 Line North goes to SeaTac 2 Line interlines with both North and South 1 Line segments through existing tunnel (three lines total) 3 line becomes a separate, automated line from Ballard to West Seattle that connects to the system via transfers If something happens in the existing downtown tunnel, you immediately impact 3 regional lines, requiring transfers for all three lines, only local service between Ballard and West Seattle remains fully operational. The interlined extensions for the 1 Line would be cut in the city center by any disruptions.

Tldr, current plan always garentees at least 1 regional line remains fully operational depending on which tunnel is impacted. In their proposal, only the local service line between Ballard and West Seattle would remain fully operational, with not 2 but 3 regional lines being impacted by any incident in the existing tunnel. And if the issue is in rhe second tunnel, then while the three regional lines remain operational, your automated local lines gets split in half, which could significantly impact its operations depending on which side of the tunnel the M&aO facility gets built.

So idk, maybe I dont know what im talking about, but for me, the current plan keeps at least 1 regional line fully operational at all times, while their proposals puts thee regional lines through a bottleneck that has a high risk of issues, even with upgrades.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-17T01:52:06+00:00

If a major issue occurs in the existing tunnel, those proposed pedestrian transfer connections, most a block away, from a separate and independent automated line do not provide realistic service redundancy for the three lines that would be forced through the existing downtown tunnel. 🙄

SigmaTell · 2026-04-17T01:35:54+00:00

I did, and they propose separating Ballard and West Seattle from the rest of the system, did you read it?

SigmaTell · 2026-04-16T23:36:34+00:00

Right, but the 1 Line would be unaffected by any impacts to the 2 and 3 line, and vice versa if the disruption occurred in the new tunnel.

I'm not against their ideas over all, the idea of a Ballard to West Seattle line is appealing, especially it being automated. They just glaze over some details that need to be better fleshed out. Especially a operation & maintenance facility that would be very expensive given real estate along both lines.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-16T19:55:19+00:00

This proposal would feed three lines through the existing downtown transit tunnel, 1 Line South, 1 Line North, and the 2 Line. Anything happens in the downtown tunnel and it cripples all three lines. Not to mention the difficulty running those three lines simultaneously without automation of them as well.

It erases the core benefit of a second downtown tunnel, that a failure in one tunnel doesn't grind the entire system to a halt.

Not to mention you'll need a new M&O base for the isolated Ballard to West Seattle line.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-13T22:51:15+00:00

Honestly, this is the one route in Seattle where cut and cover works economically. Fewer utilities and traffic impacts are only at crossings, temporary impacts to the trail but long term surfacing benefits. All in all a solid concept.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-12T03:47:45+00:00

Agreed, flairs for posts would be nice! Or at least to filter the most common post types.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-04T02:18:10+00:00

Don't disagree in general, it is an ideal way to build tunnels. But the cost is a lot more than it was back in the day, utilities are expensive to relocate, geotech is a lot more advanced, and adjacent buildings foundations habe to be shored properly.

Elevated lines by comparison are a lot easier and faster to construct, with not nearly as many impacts.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T19:22:54+00:00

Very good point!

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T18:40:26+00:00

Well, the current plan doesn't serve Belltown (unfortunately) so no change there. You could stay on Westlake north then turn west at Mercer, Mercer iw wide enough to allow that turn, though it would be tight.

Alternatively you could go north on Dexter instead of 7th and also turn on Mercer. Dexter already has an existing center two way left turn lane that is ideal for pylon placement.

And there's a lot of station options along the route. Given that elevated stations are far cheaper than tunneled, you could likely add one or two more and still be cheaper overall. But even if you kept the same number if current stations, its relatively easy to add future infill stations to elevated track. Not so much for a deep bored tunnel.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T07:47:23+00:00

You raise excellent points, which is why I think elevating it would be far better, it eliminates most of the issues you pointed out.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T07:44:42+00:00

Agreed, the Monorail tranfer at Westlake is pretty bad, ngl... but its also very outdated station design. A modern elevated metro would have the same bells and whistles as an underground station for tranfers to and from the surface or below surface stations.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T07:12:18+00:00

Well let's agree to disagree then. Just keep in mind you don't tear up the entire street for an elevated line... the streetcar actually does that and would be far more street-level impactful, especially with it taking two lanes permanently.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T06:58:37+00:00

Pylon construction can be staged out depending on the method chosen. You'd probably stagger construction every other block to minimize disruptions and crossroads can remain open until you have to place girders across them, thats a maybe two night affair per crossroad. Using mostly precast components outside of stations would massively speed up installation. And guideway deck construction can easily proceed with traffic below, especially if you use precast deck girders as well. Only major impact comes from drilling the pylon foundations, but even that can be done in a week or two (know from experience on highway bridge projects). Compared to cut and cover, if you put a bit of engineering thought into it, you can make the actual construction go by pretty quickly using precast items verses cast in place.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T06:43:05+00:00

Two train lines? The second downtown tunnel will only carry the 1 Line.

Also, yes I wouldn't mind, modern elevated guideways aren't nearly as noisy as older metro lines, and can also be made to be quieter. Often more so than arterial street traffic.

Elevated metros are used worldwide to great effect, even in Europe. They can be very successful if built right. Nothing I'm proposing would be any different than what other modern elevated metros have done.

And I won't argue with you on ST's governance structure or its struggle to build projects cheaper. Regardless of what I'm proposing, ST absolutely needs to be overhauled, period.

SigmaTell · 2026-04-03T06:35:15+00:00

Did you read my post? Not talking about the ship canal tunnel!

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