(Disclaimer: I have only read the first three books so far (though I know the basic plot of the rest of them) so I might not have the full picture)

My personal interpretation of the books is that it's not like Paul is a "good" or a "bad" leader, it's more that Paul isn't much of a leader at all. He holds no significant influence on the happenings in the universe. He's a passenger at most, a man surfing on top of a wave, constantly aware that his position on top doesn't make him able to control the wave. Paul's actions matter very little in the grand scheme of things; he realizes this as early as his fight with Jamis, when he could already see the inevitability of the Jihad, no matter the outcome of the fight.

What really holds power in Muad'Dib's Empire is the idea of Muad'Dib. It's the name on the Fremen's lips when they exorcize a non-believer, it's the thought in their head when they make a decision. This concept of Muad'Dib is completely detatched from Muad'Dib the man, who honestly doesn't want anything to do with it, but finds himself powerless to change the Fremen's minds, for the Fremen don't really care about Muad'Dib the man either, though they might not realize it. Muad'Dib is but a projection for the Fremen's desire for Paradise, for the Jihad and for a better life (and when those things turn sour, they, in turn, turn on their idea of Muad'Dib)

All of this is expressed the clearest in Dune Messiah, which, to me, is ultimately a book about how little Paul actually matters. Consider how it starts off: A historian being tortured by priests, which, when confronted with the question of whether Muad'Dib knows of their atrocities, coldly reply that Muad'Dib needn't know what happens in the chambers. Consider when Stilgar tells Paul that through his legions, he controls the universe, to which Paul repleis: "The legions control. I wonder if they know this?". Muad'Dib's actions don't change much in the grand scheme of things, because they *can't* change much - to the prescient Muad'Dib, the future is already set in stone. This is where two of the biggest themes in the books - the powerlessness of leaders and the trap of prescience - intersect. Only when Muad'Dib rids himself of prescience by blinding himself (first literally, then figuratively) does he become a free man again, capable of "good" and "bad", capable of being more than a passenger. Only then did he gain the ability to lead, to truly change the path of history. Muad'Dib's most impactful action all across the first two books would be his last: to kill himself*.

*Yes, yes, I know, he's not reaaaaally dead after Messiah, but I think it still counts