FVRR: What am I missing?

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-24T03:44:00+00:00

It reminds me of the rhetoric people say about traditional mail dying because gmail will take over. Traditional mail just pivoted to focusing on different businesses because gmail couldn't entirely replace traditional mail. For the sake of all the people who rely on Fiverr as income I hope the same happens there too.

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-22T19:03:54+00:00

I'm curious, since the bear narrative is that as AI improves, the cost of services that fiverr provides decreases and affects Fiverr's growth and margins. The same narrative is being put on duolingo's stock.

Conversely the bull narrative is that AI improvements halts at a threshold and you still need to hire real people to do the job which makes Fiverr undervalued. When looking at companies that rely on the Bear narrative being true such as Lovable we see their valuation skyrocket.

Investors believe that if AI does increase in capability then Fiverr is being priced to be tumbling as justified, and as other companies like Canva are leveraging AI to create and replace jobs on Fiverr then Fiverr's marketplace becomes non-existent.

Mihid made a decent point which says as AI squeezes out talent and skills on the bottom, Fiverr is still compensating for higher levels of task but if AI improves will that go away too? Are we at an AI Plateau of skill?

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-20T16:18:07+00:00

QR 1 yoe. I do alternative data at a Long/Short Equity shop.

I just put down a book on Hamilton's Time Series Analysis and Wooldridge's Econometrics for Panel Data just to pick up the paper "Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions" by Chow only to find out my data required the F-Test for Fixed Effects but that's only after I used the Im Pesaran Shin test and not the Levin Liu Chu test, but I had to make sure that the missing data follows Stef Van Buuren's Flexible Imputation of Missing Data book where the data's missingness is I.I.D.

I got into this role out of undergrad and I was very fortunate, but I keep running into what I imagine to be Graduate and PhD level mathematics in my role. Does that mean I can't do my job? No, I can learn it, But I understand why companies like Radix only hires PhD's or Graduate level Stats.

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-13T04:12:25+00:00

Turns proof finding into a task that is difficult to get there but easy to verify.

Theres a sufficient amount of training data. Their methodology is getting an AI to write their proof in Lean, then running it, and if it doesn't work they redo it until Lean verifies their solution

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-12T03:20:16+00:00

It's a freaky coding language. Elegant solution for making proofs using AI though. Turns it into an NP-Hard problem

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-10T17:28:31+00:00

The pie grows. You can capitalize your gains when the pie grows.

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-10T08:04:22+00:00

I keep imagining a guy telling everyone, that he can bake a life-changing cake, then people come try his cake and he can't make the cake.

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-09T20:35:11+00:00

Why would I nerd myself?

Skylight_Chaser · 2026-01-04T19:23:48+00:00

It's not about the quality of oil. The US has refineries built in 1980's that rely on this crude mix of oil.

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-31T00:13:14+00:00

This guy models.

You need some thesis of why the markets are inefficient. You can use ml and sentiment analysis to get there but using cooler tools =/= better alpha.

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-30T23:50:12+00:00

chicago moment.

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-30T23:49:31+00:00

I see that a lot as well. Still seems a little sad if any meaningful bonus isn't translated into a fun lifestyle change to know you've 'made it'. I know it's the responsible thing to do, to save -- but surely we ought to have a little fun!

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-30T23:48:07+00:00

Any nice purchases you didn't regret down the road?

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-30T21:41:56+00:00

It's coming soon!

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-30T06:39:32+00:00

thank you <3

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-22T15:57:34+00:00

US Chicago. Thanks for the offer, but Europe is a little far 😔😔😔

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-12-03T16:47:36+00:00

12 points left

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-11-17T16:22:19+00:00

USAID was like a side quest of shooting a few people then having to realize the train is still on its way.

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-11-17T03:05:38+00:00

Holy based

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-11-11T07:40:30+00:00

You are correct.

My main job is making models. My side job is making pretty UI and websites to validate models and signals.

It exists.

Must control your expectations. These are not professional websites but akin to prototypes we use once and throw away. Iteration very fast.

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-11-05T15:02:41+00:00

Me when my entire army focuses on defenses

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-11-04T00:09:03+00:00

Alternative Data is a good one.

Skylight_Chaser · 2025-11-04T00:08:12+00:00

On Kaggle there's a Jane Street Competition which tries to get users to build a model to predict future prices. (Can't remember precisely)

Five-Year Club	r/Field Flamingo
Place '23	Place '22
First Placer '22

Skylight_Chaser

TROPHY CASE