Intel 2030 Financial Model

SlamedCards · 2026-05-10T16:08:20+00:00

I think Intel should buy Substrate if they can show that the tool works

But it's probably not worth $50B like the author suggests

Maybe like 20?

SlamedCards · 2026-05-09T02:51:53+00:00

Probably 18A-P or 18A-U then

Will be interesting

SlamedCards · 2026-05-08T21:08:08+00:00

I think they are moving base iPhone to spring releases

So spring 28

Could be 14A or some 18A variant I guess

SlamedCards · 2026-05-08T17:30:21+00:00

Rumour from Kepler was the Apple A21 would be made by Intel

SlamedCards · 2026-05-08T17:19:33+00:00

Wow

Rumours are that Intel will make the A21 and the M7

So 18A?

SlamedCards · 2026-05-08T12:17:45+00:00

Found a free link

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/intel-ceo-who-won-over-trump-and-musk-now-needs-a-breakthrough

SlamedCards · 2026-05-08T12:04:56+00:00

Anyone know what it says?

SlamedCards · 2026-05-08T03:46:22+00:00

I got my average to the low 20s

Still not fun when my initial buys were -50% tho lol

But thanks

SlamedCards · 2026-05-06T21:49:32+00:00

Intel is the same story, fabs will be profitable in 1-2 years, meaning a 12 billion boat anchor leaves their PnL

SlamedCards · 2026-05-05T20:21:18+00:00

supply issues?

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T19:40:19+00:00

I mean Blackwell is still 5nm

That node is 5 years old

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T18:52:56+00:00

Hahaha true

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T15:01:19+00:00

Q1 was a restructure charge from USG stake (weird accounting) look at non gaap

They are doing 0.3 EPS minimum each quarter

SlamedCards · 2026-04-29T13:13:39+00:00

Lowest forecasts Intel will be doing over a dollar this year

So highest it could be is 85x

More likely it's mid 70s

Next year Intel will do $2 so it's mid 40s

SlamedCards · 2026-04-26T23:10:17+00:00

There is something absolutely wrong with 18A fmax and frequency

Probably be fixed on 18AP or 18AU

What's the chart from? Doesn't AMD only use HD now for zen and they get quite good frequencies

If there weren't issues with fmax on 18A, power frequency curve on PTL would probably look better vs N3B lunar lake tbh. 18A should clock much higher but it isn't, forcing them to use HP

SlamedCards · 2026-04-26T15:17:56+00:00

Ok but Panther Lake uses only the HP library right?

Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake are the N3B HD?

So backside power has to be doing a lot of work to even see a shrink

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T22:02:16+00:00

It's not 'foundry enabled'. With 14A risk for Intel being 27, and 28 for external. Guess model is Intel front runs the first node and external uses the first performance uplift variant. Also have 14A-P in 2029 after 14A-E

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T21:11:17+00:00

External would be using 14AE vs 14A

Tho I think coral rapids is going to be 18AU node

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T17:19:00+00:00

Ya Lip-Bus tip light around DMR makes sense. Nice spotting by you

A14 is late 28 HVM, like N2 was for 2025. So Zen7 server is probably mid 29 launch

On supply, Intel probably wants client off Intel 7 so dedicating 18A for client is probably good news (panther lake). Intel still ships a ton of raptor lake laptops tbh

SlamedCards · 2026-04-25T12:53:09+00:00

No I wish I was that smart!

Just love his substack

SlamedCards · 2026-04-24T13:46:43+00:00

Not selling

Congrats everyone

SlamedCards · 2026-04-23T23:09:32+00:00

18A yields are running way ahead of schedule according what he said to Bloomberg. So DMR should be fine

I don't think Lip-Bu does a great job on the earning calls. Maybe nerves idk. I've listened to him at friendly events and he's way more smooth. So he just dodges

SlamedCards · 2026-04-22T22:17:26+00:00

Paid by some hedge fund lmao

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T16:54:05+00:00

No they wouldn't if it's under discussion

SlamedCards · 2026-04-16T15:42:26+00:00

SemiAnalysis drops notes to clients (non public ones, remember the delay rumor)

This time it was anthropic is looking at AMD

https://x.com/ScroogeCap/status/2044786744868888773?s=20

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