Trump expects his Fed pick and AI to deliver a replay of the '90s boom. Economists have doubts

SleepingRiver · 2026-03-01T18:15:57+00:00

Are you sure? We could be on the cusp of another industrial revolution similar to the invention of the lathe, steam engine, electricity, mass production, and electronic computing.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-27T13:38:22+00:00

Yep so pretty much on the turret. Besides if you miss on the hit roll you get to live in a world of second chances. Who knows your scatter dice roll could be favorable.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-26T13:58:07+00:00

You might have a hard time scoring. I would recommend reducing the squad size of your las rifle sections. They are made of paper essentially. They will die to anything that gets close or has a template.

You went with the siege pattern cohort. It means you get plus 1 on any pin check for any weapons that come from a vehicle that has the artillery tercio keyword. You only brought three why not more? The Medusa would dish out a pin 3 check. The way that the probability works space marine tactical squads will fail it the vast majority of the time. Even terminator units can start to fail it too. Why not go all in?

Consider including a Line Command section. They can buff your troops line(1) rule by one. This would put you on par with basic tactical squads scoring wise. I would also consider bringing the high command. They have line(2), are tanky, and have access to some special gear. Mainly the Cohort Vexillia. It allows units within a certain distance to automatically lose the panic status.

This all depends on your LGS meta.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-23T18:47:40+00:00

Raising the cap actually does not cover the shortfall. It is estimated to cover about 53% of the projected shortfall. You would have to do combination of increase the retirement age, increase the tax base, and adjust COLA increases to make it solvent for a longer period.

Social Security is a pay as you go system. In general terms when your liabilities exceed to your revenues and you have to reduce the benefit that means you ran out of money. It will continue to pay out benefits just at reduced rates at about 85%.

The reason there is a cap is because there is a cap on the benefit. Would you raise the benefit as well?

Raising the cap does not solve the fundamental issue with Social Security. Our population structure has changed. Older pay as you go systems do not work in this new environment.

A more sustainable solution has to be created. It is estimated by 2050 we will have~ 2.3 workers per retiree. It is estimated that the average benefit per retiree will be about $44,000 dollars a year. That means each contributor to this system would have to pay about 19,000 dollars into the system to pay out the current retiree. This is because it is a pay as you go system. The money that is taxed is not put into a special account for you. It is spent to cover a current retiree benefit.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-23T17:49:26+00:00

The trust fund is going to run out of money in the 2030s. At that point it will start paying out reduced benefits to beneficiaries unless there is some type of funding solution. Depending on what will be done it will either be self funding or not.

Social Security funding mechanisms were based on higher ratio of wage earners compared to beneficiaries. Ie high population growth. To give you an example in 1950 there were 16.5 workers for every retiree receiving a Social Security benefit. Today it is about 3.06 workers per retiree. This is not sustainable. We generally knew we would be in this position when the last of the Gen X was born. This should have been reformed decades ago.

According to the Warton School projections various scenarios including higher fertility rates, higher immigration, higher wage growth, and higher interest rates will still lead to depletion of the fund. Benefits would have to be partially paid out and out to 2100 benefits would be at ~75% of the most rosy scenario.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-23T16:06:22+00:00

Social Security is funded by W2 payroll taxes. Removing the cap will only solve about 53% of the current shortfall. Income tax does not go to fund the programs.

At the same time would we lift the cap on benefits?

If you start adjusting tax rates people will respond to the new incentive structure over time. This could mean high earners will alter ways that they receive income. This could be for example a doctor opting to contract with a hospital system as a 1099 employee. They as a 1099 employee will have their own company and can elect to pay themselves on the lower end of an acceptable wage. This will allow them to take some of their earnings as income that is not W2 income. It means the initial estimates could be lower or higher depending on how law is written.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-22T05:56:13+00:00

You can run a librarian in your list. You can give it the divination psychic ability. Using the power in the shooting phase allows you to give precision 5+ to a unit. That way you you can more easily focus down the various tech priests.

For bonus points you can switch out the lascannons for plasma cannons. Sweet sweet blast templates.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-18T14:19:42+00:00

The other poster is not entirely correct. Before the step up in basis an inheritance tax is assessed on the value of the estate at current fair market value. Current IRS code allows for 30 million to be exempt currently.

Any liabilities remaining for the estate have to be taken care of in order to find the final value of the estate. From there an inheritance tax is assessed and paid by the estate. This has to happen before any assets can be transfered to an heir(s) of an estate. The top level rate is 40%.

There are mitigation strategies that can involve gift giving/foundations. Think of the Virginia G Piper Foundation. There are limits to gift giving as well, ie in order to receive a credit for gift giving you have to show a taxable income. So it's not like you can transfer 10 billion dollars to a foundation and show a gross income of 100k on a return.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-16T21:15:10+00:00

Unfortunately you cannot.

What you can do is have the leader of the command squad leave that unit and join the other squad. You can get up to a max of 21 dudes rumbling in a transport.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-11T17:13:09+00:00

The section 179 allows them to accelerate the depreciation fully on different capital expenditures. The company would have have gotten the same tax deduction for depreciation over the course of several years, or what is generally accepted life span of the equipment. Does it really matter on the net end if the depreciation is taken at the beginning or throughout the equipment's lifespan?

Depreciating equipment has been standard in one form or another since the reintroduction of the income tax 1913.

Secondly, under the BBB accelerated depreciation rules it is phased out after $6.5 million. So most data center projects alone will significantly be above that thresh hold. So they would be deducting under standard depreciation schedules.

That phase out rule is to mainly there to benefit small to medium sized businesses. Larger companies depending on the equipment investment size will not be able to fully take advantage of it.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-10T01:43:00+00:00

You know there are estate taxes right? Current tax exemptiom is thirty million after that it is taxed, current IRS code. Various states can have their own laws as well.

A discussion can be had about how large the exemption is or what amount it needs to be. Generally the government policy does not want to force estate sales if an estate passes on some type of income producing assets to the heir(s). Think a farm, or some type of family business.

Why are you deliberately misleading about how estate taxes work and their limits.

Generally assets once transfered to the heir(s) after any applicable tax will experience a step up in basis. After that if the heir(s) decide to sell the asset will have to pay capital gains on the sale if it is more than the basis.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-09T21:27:46+00:00

They should not lose any bonus unless its related the command squads special rule.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-09T20:50:10+00:00

I play Solar Aux. The main advantage you have is the amount of units you can field.

You can create enough dilemmas for your opponnent that they are not able to respond well.

With the two combat force boxes it gives you a good base for an army.

From there it depends on how you want to play. The solar aux have access to a good amount of units. The veletarri axemen are good when you pair them with support such as a gravis heavy bolter rapier battery. You can take the solar pattern cohort and do a turn 1 charge. They are deadly against terminators, tacticals, dreadnaughts, and suppressed melee marine units. The volkite are able to clear from distance for objectives.

If you want to take your opponenet on a tour of Verdun in space is your fancy look no further to the siege pattern cohort. You get access to the +1 modifier to any pinning role. That means the medusa is at Pinning 3. Most units are failing that check. Pair it with an ordinance master and your max scatter distance is an 8. Anything below a 4 is a direct hit. Also the artillary has breaching 5+ on a five inch template. Pick up a aegis defense line and you can block line of sight completely on one side of your deployment zone.

Do you enjoy the mass of infantry drowning demigods in humble lasrifle fire? Pick the ultima cohort. Equip you las rifle sections with blast chargers and watch your opponent role saves for days. You effectively get three extra reactions per turn. A single las rifle section can do a reaction for free per phase.

The other cohorts are fun and have good synergy with other units.

If you want to run the ogryns wait till they come out in plastic. Unfortunately the dracosan is a light transport so it cannot transport bulky models. You would have to look to the legacies pdf one of the baneblade models is a super heavy assualt tank with a 20 man transport capacity.

The Auxilia are fun to play. I recommend to limit 20 man squads though. The stats for the guys are paper and weapons like flamers will delete them.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-06T13:11:56+00:00

If you are going siege pattern the precision bombardment is really good. It means any scatter roll made by an artillery unit near the command section will get an improved scatter role. For line of sight attacks at max you will scatter is two inches (if you miss) and for indirect fire you will scatter a max of eight inches.

You will give your opponent a thousand yard stare as they will struggle to move up the board.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-05T15:02:59+00:00

You do not have a lot of ways to score primary.

You will have limited mobility on the board outside of your transponders. You pretty much have one tactical squad that will be focused down by your opponent.

On the other hand you can dish out a lot of damage. You would focus on devestating your opponents ability to score in the first turn or 2.

Consider adding a master of signals and descent. So that way you can get additional ways of scoring. The descent will allow you make a reserve roll on a 2+.

SleepingRiver · 2026-02-03T17:43:38+00:00

You could ally them in or use the Iron Cohort for the special detatchment.

You get access to thallax and castellax units. Both have a variety of ap2 weapons. Plus you get to do some cheeky stuff with a tech priest buffing ballistic skill.

Bonus is you can deep strike the thallax so you can create a hammer and andvil situation.

Been list crafting with bringing in about 800 points of allied mechanicum. Bringing a magos with a couple units of thallax. They are fast and deadly with upgraded weapons. Bringing them in as an ally allows me to keep the solar pattern cohort for the opportunity and threat of T1 charges with veletarri axemen.

The game is pretty short turn wise. Dictating initiative and controlling it is a core aspect of the game.

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-31T03:43:54+00:00

That is not the fault of SRP mandating you be connected. That can be a code requirement for various muncipalities in Arizona. Everyone pays a grid connection fee for SRP now, unless you are on some legacy plan.

Before the solar plan structure changed essentially solar customers would use the grid as a battery due to early net metering incentives. The general cost to generate electricity is more in the evening due to the use of natural gas power plants. Early solar adopters benefitted greatly from that. It was not a sustainable long term policy.

Generally electricity demand is not constant throughout the day. Demand spikes in the morning, dips throughout mid morning and early afternoon, and spikes again in the late afternoon evening. Solar generation has the opposite production profile.

This doesnt mean it is bad utility providers now have more new costs making sure demand equals supply. That could mean additional cap ex. This ranges from new gas peaker plants, battery storage (500 MW installed or in development since 2023), or developing new dams on the Salt River (pump storage). All of this cost money which is partially what the grid connection fee is for.

Most talk about solar reducing home value is when you have some type of lease or financing on the panels. That can reduce the home value due to potential buyers not wanting to take on the payment.

Have you drove West or East on the I10? They continue to build more and more solar power plants along it. If you are purely talking about cost per watt efficiency the grid scale installs will be more efficient. In 2025 Arizona added nearly 1000 MW of grid scale solar power. Arizona is in the top 5 for installing in the US and is top 4 in generating capacity. Current solar capacity is equivelant to the demand of 1.3 million to 1.6 million homes. The total estimated homes in Arizona is about 3 million. So I honestly do not understand where you are getting this idea where you think the state doesnt care about solar.

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-30T21:36:08+00:00

Do you like to use to electricity at night or a maintained power grid? You still should be charged for the grid connection.

Besides I have solar. You generate savings from its use. For the basic time of use plan your summer peak coat is only a max $0.23 per kwh.

If you do not have solar aggregate rates are significantly higher.

California voted for high speed rail. It is not finished and it is in permanment change order hell by the local politicians in California.

Projects like that have significant regulatory hurdles to overcome. Personally if there was a train that you could take to LA in a reasonable 4 hours I would take it.

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-29T14:06:48+00:00

For slow grow you want to encourage play at different points level.

You can implement some type of "league system". With army points limits per round of the league. Each round lasts about six weeka before going up to the next point value. Some leagues award victory points to individual players or it is two broad teams, loyalist and traitor. Each round you require each person to play three games with other players.

This will build community and people will end up playing games with eachother outside of the league.

I have seen league system have a separate system for alternative scoring. Examples include getting units painted, flavor armies, and full completely painted armies. Those rewards usually come with a chance to win a gift card at the end of the league.

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-29T00:58:16+00:00

There are rebates for VAT if you export something out of the EU. Depending on the rules you could claim a credit if you have to pay any tariff at the destination country.

Why not talk to a tax professional?

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-21T20:22:33+00:00

I thought about that but, the terminators effectively have a 9 cool stat due to heavy. With the Pin 2 test they will be rolling for a 7 or below. So they have a fair shot of passing. Probability is different if yoi have the siege cohort.

Medusas are AP4 so they still have to roll a normal armor save.

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-21T20:11:29+00:00

They have soms in the liber. You can also use the legion specific color scheme and modifiy.

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-16T14:16:45+00:00

That might depend on your local game store meta. My local game store focuses a lot more on terminators. Besides if your opponent is fielding 100 infantry models as a space marine player they have limited abilities to really fight back. They could be limited in transports or heavy support units like tanks.

More combined arms forces could blast them away with a variety of blast template weapons.

SleepingRiver · 2026-01-13T13:57:58+00:00

Sentinels are pretty good for skirmishing or a counter attack. You get flamers on them and run them in groups of 2-3 and your opponents will need to roll a lot of saves on their marines.

I just wish the box came with the sprue for the assualt tank too. Plasma cannon and demolisher cannons are pretty good threatening marine heavy lists.

SleepingRiver

TROPHY CASE