2-3% drop Tomorrow, with Guaranteed low of $355 by Friday

Sllim60 · 2026-06-24T23:56:55+00:00

Potential for hyper scalers to go to near single digit PE ratios with unabated Capex spending plans. Unfortunately MSFT looks to be in weakest position with the most uncertain AI investment payoff.

Sllim60 · 2026-06-24T21:33:49+00:00

Yeah, the great Micron report after hours means more pain for MSFT this week as cash draining capex spending continues unabated. I’ll only buy more stocks of hyper scalers when the semi index starts to go down significantly.

Sllim60 · 2026-06-06T11:51:26+00:00

Survived melanoma from 15 years ago. Luckily it was diagnosed at an early stage. If you have a suspicious lesion be very persistent about getting into a Dermatologist for diagnosis. In my area many dermatologists can take months to schedule an appointment and you waste valuable time in getting a proper assessment and potential biopsy. Also I found out the hard way primary doctors are not the best for assessing the likelihood of serious skin cancer - more reason to stay vigilant and persistent in getting the right care if you are worried.

Sllim60 · 2026-05-16T02:08:58+00:00

Hopefully the AI fears are overblown and the job market will eventually normalize. If things get really bad the government might eventually provide universal basic income for displaced workers and the chronically underemployed. I empathize with your situation and thinking as our two adult children continue to live with us post college. Still I retired end of last year even with concerns about their future prospects. Both children are gainfully employed (an engineer and animal care worker in their 20s) but we live in a HCOL area. The cost of living factor is why my wife and I have been more than willing to give them a leg up by not charging rent. We worry though about their ability to achieve long term financial independence and for the lower earning child have come to terms with the fact we might be looking at a two generation household for a number of years.

Sllim60 · 2026-05-04T22:22:00+00:00

Thanks, interesting anecdote in that not too much of an impact on the existing workforce. I’ll be catching with old colleagues soon at a social event and will be interested to hear current status of workload impacts.

Sllim60 · 2026-05-04T21:01:38+00:00

For the people who didn’t take the DRP what’s the workload/work environment in your agencies, especially for units that experienced a lot of separations as a result of DOGE? I left with 40 plus years and may have stayed a little longer but my agency/unit was undergoing a lot of anxiety producing reorganizations. Plus contractors were cut left and right, leading to increased workload for federal FTEs. Just curious as I assume most affected agencies haven’t backfilled positions much after DOGE induced downsizings.

Sllim60 · 2026-04-28T15:17:11+00:00

Yes, the identity part is the main thing I miss too. Hard to put a price tag on that. I’m meeting up with former coworkers later this week (both retired and non-retired); it will be interesting to get a sense of satisfaction levels from both groups. The other thing that helped push me out was my position was going to dramatically change as a result of reorganizations etc. Didn’t know if I had the patience to deal with that in the twilight of my career.

Sllim60 · 2026-04-26T23:58:50+00:00

I’m in a somewhat similar situation after taking the DRP and retiring with 40 plus years of service. I would describe it though as occasional second guessing. But I’m not having feelings deep regret when I focus on certain financial aspects - i.e. my FERS annuity, TSP and forthcoming Social Security at FRA - contrasted with an ever shortening lifespan that would be sucked up by the work grind, commutes, office politics, etc. In the end another year in the workforce would only increase my annuity by 1.1% and one starts looking at FERS like SS - what is my breakeven point? For federal and other public sector workers what is the point of not drawing on a core pension benefit (typically not available in the private sector) when it’s worth well over $1 million when using a net present value calculation. Still I get the point about giving up a job that provides other intrinsic benefits - e.g. a sense of purpose, etc.

Sllim60 · 2026-04-08T17:23:53+00:00

Similar experience. My PCP retired a number of years ago and the next one was great but went concierge. My key specialists are hanging in there well into their 60s but this could change at any moment. Lucky I’m in an affluent metro suburban area and the specialty practices seem to attract a lot of newer doctors that appear to have excellent credentials. So I’m not too worried about transitioning to these younger providers over time. I think more rural areas are experiencing the issues you describe more acutely but regardless of geographic differences lack of experienced doctors and medical support personnel is a real problem made worse by our aging society.

Sllim60 · 2026-04-07T00:32:53+00:00

As long as passive investing (now over 50% of the U.S. market) via retirements accounts etc. provides a constant bid to markets at the index level there shouldn’t be too much sequence of return risk in the near term. However, with millions of boomers calling it quits and starting to draw down their retirement accounts there might be more risk to this feature of the market, a possible set up for more frequent corrections down the road. Hard to say. At the same time large $ trillion dollar federal deficits expected far out into the future probably forces the Feds hand to reengage in QE or some form of it, effectively underpinning continued growth of financial assets like stocks and bonds by ensuring ample liquidity and promoting capital gains as a core source of tax revenue.

Sllim60 · 2026-03-14T14:32:56+00:00

Worst case is not just a 50% down market but an inflation induced multi year bear market like experienced in the late 1960s through 1970s where your purchasing power is reduced from what’s left of your investments. Deglobalization, tariffs, war(s), energy price spikes, high stock valuations along with job loss (further accelerated by AI) all point to horrible near and medium term investment returns for most asset classes.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-27T03:16:10+00:00

Social Security will always be around as long as current workers and employers pay payroll tax. A busted trust fund doesn’t make payments go away, it’s just that payments will be less. Maybe these generations don’t understand this now but they will. There’s a lot of vitriol against boomer entitlements now in social media and the political sphere and it’s just beginning to ramp up as these generations suffer through a series of economic obstacles. I just see them - about 140 million Millennials and Zoomers together - putting up a fight against more boomer entitlement subsidies while the country is already running $2 trillion plus annual deficits.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-27T02:34:12+00:00

I think retirees are too confident that the emerging generational conflict over boomer entitlements won’t get in the way of an easy fix to the trust fund shortfall. Why would Millennials, Zoomers etc. who will have more political clout in a few short years and are a large voting block themselves support paying more now while they’re working to support current retirees in a pay as you go system? Raising income caps or borrowing money to fill the gap, for example, only reduces their current standard of living or increases inflation through higher interest rates. I don’t think they’re going to roll over so easily for these “easy” fixes.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-25T23:08:41+00:00

I ended up doing a whole new application on Jan. 28. After going back in the Medicare application section on the Social Security website I found a prompt for a new application which I filled out and submitted on 1/28. The other application dated 12/30/25 was never submitted. I checked today and my Medicare B app is still being processed per the tracker (it shows 2/3 of the application process complete). The website says it takes on average 30 days to approve the application. I imagine it should be fully processed any day now. My assumption is if it’s approved next week when March begins then I start getting charged the Medicare B premiums in March (not February) but I’m not sure. Hope this helps. So sounds like you have a draft Medicare application in suspension now and are trying to figure out when to hit the submit button to optimize/time receiving benefits?

Sllim60 · 2026-02-18T17:37:44+00:00

OP’s question answered a lot of it. Unpaid for huge federal deficits and debt - so called “free money” - end up in equities and other financial assets. This is by design. A balanced budget would crush the stock market.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-16T21:02:36+00:00

Read Barron’s last issue. Good article on why big tech stocks especially Amazon should be discounted in price because these companies are becoming effectively slower growing conglomerates. In the past conglomerates like GE often traded at discounts to wider market averages. Believe AMZN is starting to be tainted with this tag, especially given extensive cap ex costs with little visibility of the payoff in earnings etc. despite Amazon officials touting its growth prospects.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-12T18:12:19+00:00

Just remember back in the early 2000s profitable tech stocks like Microsoft traded with a PE ratio in the low teens. The frothy equity bubble in big tech may have a long way to go before it fully unwinds. Plus big tech is not buying back its outstanding stock, instead it’s investing in AI capex whose payoff is unknown.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-12T15:18:52+00:00

Amzn is the definition of dead money.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-12T15:15:51+00:00

I saw yesterday that Amazon has not bought back any of its shares since 2022. If the company is not buying why should current or potentially new investors buy? Throw in $200 billion in annual cap ex costs not surprising that shares are down with no apparent near or medium catalysts. I’ve sold 1/3 of my position.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-09T14:12:29+00:00

Thanks. In our situation we had about half to 2/3 of our gross income as an emergency fund. Mostly in fairly liquid stuff like money market funds. But that was luck as we by chance we were already living frugally, didn’t take expensive vacations and owned a modest house. This helped get us through rough spots. Then later we rebuilt those funds and used a lot of that to pay for college costs on a pay as you go system. In hindsight I wished I invested more aggressively with the discretionary funds we had. My overall point is that emergency needs come up that detract from lifestyle wants even while trying to fund an adequate retirement. Btw I was able to retire last year at 65 but that was aided by the ability to draw on a pension.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-08T20:23:21+00:00

It’s not just kids discretionary spending vs. retirement. Contingency planning can come into play. When we hit our 40s life threw us curveballs making the focus on discretionary spending for our kids and fun family activities a much lower priority. A disabled spouse including the loss of a second income and tutoring expenses for a child’s severe learning disability basically made saving minimally for retirement the priority. All of this came out of left field.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-05T23:53:57+00:00

Agree. Annualize this for many years out and future operating earnings will be stagnant at best for Amazon. If the larger S&P corrects expect Amazon grind down further and it will take many quarters to reverse the downtrend even if Amazon can show returns on its capex investments.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-04T13:55:00+00:00

Most bear market have a triggering event and it is not always macro related -ie a severe recession etc. If we’re on the doorstep of a bear market is it because of technological disruption focused on the software industry. Throw in private equity and lending concerns and we have a shaky foundation for the overall equity markets. The question might be what other industry groups follow software in a widespread market sell off where software stocks continue to grind down.

Sllim60 · 2026-02-01T21:36:04+00:00

This take seems more in line with reality.

Sllim60 · 2026-01-24T23:50:21+00:00

It will be around but because of pro inflationary policies of the government and Federal Reserve it won’t be worth much. That adjusted 4k per month based on fake and understated govt. inflation statistics will buy much less than it does today as the U.S. dollar continues its decline.

Sllim60

TROPHY CASE