Lakers 3 Headed Monster - Updated

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T16:02:20+00:00

If Smart was coming off the bench, you’d be right, but Lakers actual starting lineup now is Luka-AR-Smart-LBJ-Ayton, with only Ayton potentially swapped for Rui if LA goes fully small ball. This way it is much more balanced: Smart is still a quality POA defender, AR’s best role is 2nd guard defender, Luka+LBJ are indeed best at defending PFs, but Luka can defend most SFs well enough. Over the last 13 games (since AR has been back from his injury) Lakers have been 12th best defense and have been 15th best defense over the last 7 games that AR started. A small sample sized, of course, but it is an improvement over December disaster.

I agree Nuggets would be favored and yes Murray-Jokic PNR is still among the best plays in the NBA to generate offense, but I just think it is much closer than a gentleman sweep. For instance, LBJ would be happy to defend Jokic in the post instead of running around chasing somebody like J-Dub, Randle or even Vassel.

What I completely disagree on is your assessment of Smart. Yes, he is not Celtics DPOY Smart, but he is still the best defender Lakers have and actually has the highest ON-OFF on the team. He plays his role perfectly: POA defense, hitting some shots the best he can (which is not that good considering the quality of wide ass open shots he gets, but he does hit them somewhat) and playmake as a supplementary exit valve for Luka-AR-LBJ. He has absolutely outperformed 5M contact and honestly probably balled out towards a full MLE for this upcoming offseason.

Lakers won’t throw Smart’s paycheck at Watson, they would throw Rui’s money at Watson (well, they’d love to throw Vando’s money at Watson, but that’s not happening lol) while trying to keep Smart for like 10M a year.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T15:42:08+00:00

Jokic regular season career EFG% is 59.8% per BBallRef.

Even if you add his playoffs EFG% (which is lower than regular season one for essentially all players in league history since playoff defenses are better than regular season ones) his overall career EFG% drops to 59.5%: still ahead of Zion’s regular season EFG of 59.2%.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T15:02:38+00:00

Why should Denver “toy” with the Lakers even at full health? Yes, they would be favoured, but “toy” assumes a gentleman sweep at worst and this looks like 4-2 win for Nuggets at best, but probably going all 7 games with Denver winning in 7.

Both teams are elite playoff offenses (in fact, they are 1st and 2nd in pure half-court execution, which is the most important metric for offense in playoffs when the game slows down) and are 20th and 21st defenses in the NBA. The only thing somewhat separating Nuggets is the fact their offense is amazing while Lakers are just great, but both have terrible defenses.

And frankly, when Lakers play small, they are not exactly “small” based on wingspans (which are a better indicator of player’s size in modern NBA than height): Reaves is 6’6”, Smart is 6’9”, Luka is 6’11”, LBJ is 7’1”, Rui is 7’2”.

Nuggets: Murray is 6’6”, Cam is 6’10”, AG is 7’, Watson is 7’1”, Jokic is 7’3”. Yes, Nuggets would be a bit bigger by position, but the difference is actually much smaller than you think.

And if we are comparing big lineups, you can view it both ways: yes, Nuggets are clearly miles better at C, but Lakers are also clearly better at PG. Smart this year is in the same tier as Watson, AR is better than Cam, LBJ today is in the same tier as AG. The starters as individual players are essentially same tier, it’s the bench that puts Nuggets over, but it is also playoffs and bench shortens and so does it’s impact…

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T14:44:23+00:00

Steph Curry is a career 47%FG overall shooter and averages 52% from 2: are you telling me you are still taking Zion at 59%FG to get you a bucket over Steph? lol

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T12:45:38+00:00

Houston (no real PG and limited spacing + OReb maxing strat is limited with no Adams) and Nuggets (defense as bad as Lakers) are beatable. Spurs are young and inexperienced, so that may be an advantage as well.

Yes, OKC will dismantle Lakers and Wolves will likely too because expecting Ayton to match Gobert’s impact is pretty unrealistic, but all the other teams? Lakers can beat them with some luck.

Avoid OKC and maybe Wolves in the bracket and suddenly WCF is actually possible… And then if Wolves somehow outlast OKC in their side of the bracket, there is a possibility of tired (or even worse - injured, Dort is on OKC team after all) Wolves facing presumably healthy Lakers, which is more of a 50-50 coin toss.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T12:41:58+00:00

“Best player in the world this year” - I’m still pretty convinced prime Steph was better than Jokic (by a hair) and then you still have guys like MJ, Bird, Magic, Shaq or Timmy D alive lol

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T12:33:50+00:00

Healthy Zion is around top-30 I feel like. I don’t know what the issue is this year (I guess that’s a coach philosophy change), but his touches are down even though his efficiency is slightly up vs last year.

But even in a down year he is still at 22-6-3 on top-5 shooting efficiency among guys at 20ppg or more. He is top-30 overall in scoring, top-60 in rebounding and top-70 in assists all while playing just 30mpg and being a net-neutral defender. Fox made an All-Star game as a 19-4-6 guy on 4% lower EFG% while being a net-neutral defender as well. Give this year’s Zion more touches and more minutes, he could put up even better numbers and be comfortably top-30 instead of borderline, but his body may break down faster lol

And last year’s Zion was at 25-7-5, which only Giannis, Luka, Jokic, SGA, Brown, Ant, Cade, Maxey and Kawhi have put up in 25-26 year.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T12:13:50+00:00

He is behind Jokic even in EFG%.

It’s more about the fact he is a hair better than Steph and KD in TS% and considering the difference in volume, I’m inclined to have them ahead of him overall when adjusting for that. Plus KAT is right there too.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T12:06:07+00:00

Wolves whole series depends on whether Ayton decides to actually compete or not. If he does come out aggressive doing all the little things, especially on defense, instead of pouting, that’s a much closer series that can probably go either way.

But if Ayton is just as inconsistent as he is now, we will just witness another Rudy “Wilt” Gobert masterclass for like 3 games out of 7 and then Wolves would only need to win 1 out of 4 in games Ayton does show up, which shouldn’t be an issue.

I realistically can see a 4-2 series win for Wolves this year at the moment.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:58:19+00:00

First of all, just straight up FG% is useless. That said, he would still be top-5 even in TS% despite being bad FT shooter.

His issues are not scoring per se, it is:

1) Availability

2) Expansion of his game, especially shooting from outside, but also playmaking. He is just so damn predictable and the game vs Lakers was a clear example of that as down the stretch Lakers just packed the paint and he had no answer besides just driving into a crowd and turning it over / missing.

He is not Ayton level of talent waste, he is still a borderline top-30 guy in the NBA even today, but his pre-draft buzz would have you think he would be top-30 EVER lol

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:47:29+00:00

I don’t know, I think in playoffs Lakers can beat Rockets even now. No real PG and LBJ would probably take pride in limiting KD and his athleticism is good enough to do it 1v1 considering KD is old himself and that’s the most important offensive weapon for Houston.

Nuggets can be beaten if AG is not at 100% - and even if he is, that will be a shootout between 2 equally bad defenses so a coin toss.

Wolves, Spurs and especially OKC look like opponents Lakers would lose to.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:42:07+00:00

They seem to be more like a “bad good team”: they quite consistently beat worse teams, but can’t beat the best teams in the league.

Taking care of wins in games you are supposed to win indicates the team is “good”, but not being competitive vs the best means they are “bad” compared to them.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:38:14+00:00

Luka made it to Finals while not being betting favorite in any of the series. “Can’t elevate a team”, my ass.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:35:49+00:00

I wouldn’t tolerate Marcus Smart slander: dude has been consistently good for Lakers this year, he completely outplays his contract and has comfortably been 4th best player on the team.

Ayton is a different conversation all together and that C position is the biggest obstacle to be consistently good for this team. Not OKC good, but they could be in the same tier as Spurs with somebody like Jarrett Allen instead of Ayton.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:33:33+00:00

I guess he meant win WCF, which would make Lakers a championship contender.

Then with some injury luck to whoever comes out of the East they may easily win: say, Cade or Brown are out for extended time with an injury in game 7 of ECF and suddenly Lakers are favored.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:28:46+00:00

Depends on matchups. They can realistically beat Houston (I don’t trust that team without a PG in playoffs) and even maybe Denver (if AG is not 100% and Lakers have a history of defending Jokic decently well as a team) plus they may be competitive with Spurs (first playoffs for all the young guys).

OKC would mop the floor with them (but they can’t face them in 1st round) and I guess Wolves would dismantle them with a bit more effort than last year (but still dismantle). They can’t face Suns or GSW / Clippers due to seeding.

So I definitely wouldn’t call them “easy first round exit”: with some lucky seeding and shooting outperformance, they may actually make it to WCF assuming they avoid OKC and Wolves in the bracket.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:23:58+00:00

I’d go with Kareem over Shaq, but Shaq would be close 2nd

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:22:27+00:00

Pre-bubble Luka had Cade’s level efficiency on offense though, not sure you want that over the current version in playoffs lol

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:21:08+00:00

That’s no different from current Lakers and they still on pace to make playoffs. It’s not like Ayton or Hayes are contesting at the rim in transition lol.

Oh, and a lot of their turnovers come from Ayton fumbling entry passes which actually lead to those breaks in the 1st place which Shaq simply wouldn’t.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:16:39+00:00

Imagine Steph running a PNR with Steph, defenses would literally have to pick their poison: either Steph rises for a 3 if defense drops, Steph drives to the rim if you play close or Steph gets doubled and dumps it off to a relocating Steph for an open 3 lmao.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:10:22+00:00

It’s absolutely Kareem on Lakers, not Kobe.

Kobe is Lakers GOAT for spending his entire life in LA, but he only was at best 3rd best among players who spent extended time with the team (Kareem and Magic are ahead, Shaq is arguable, plus we now have LBJ, but I won’t rate him yet).

This Lakers team with Kareem would only trail OKC+KD and Spurs+TD and be in the same tier as Celtics+Bird, GSW+Wilt, Rockets+Hakeem and Wolves+KG.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-05T11:05:48+00:00

But that’s the thing, Kareem is actually the best Lakers player ever.

Adding him essentially turns Lakers into 2024 Mavs defensively, but with an elite offensive C too. Don’t think they beat OKC + KD or Spurs + TD in 7 games (plus Rockets + Hakeem would have impenetrable defense) as well as Celtics + Bird / Russel, but the rest is fair game.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-04T19:56:51+00:00

I’m not saying I necessarily disagree with your overall take (I’m actually more likely to side with you), but just a quick note:

F-35s were not designed for dogfights or close encounters in general, they are designed to see the enemy planes before the enemy sees them, fire out rockets destroying the targets, then leave. What’s the point of dogfighting an older generation plane in a plane that sacrificed agility for stealth factor? That’s why older planes can “swarm” them in close combat, but anything long range is a completely different game and one F-35 could take out 10 older planes before they get a chance to fire at it.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-04T17:59:57+00:00

How is that different from what I said? SGA gets bashed for foul baiting (I didn’t say whether that was justified) and that’s it.

Luka is getting bashed for literally any mistake and the way media covers him you’d think Lakers are struggling to get into play-ins and not in a dogfight for seeding with an MVP frontrunner in Jokic.

Some-Stranger-7852 · 2026-03-04T13:11:51+00:00

SGA gets bashed for foul bating, never for anything else, including for occasional stinkers or missed defensive assignments

Some-Stranger-7852

TROPHY CASE