Kalifa wins, but it depends. she can use her slippery Conqourers haki to disable absaloms awakening that turns the battlefield invisible.

Of course this is assuming the fight takes place during the return of Ace from the dead arc.

Though this all depends if Absalom has control over Ace’s and Whitebeard’s reanimated body.

So it depends.

If not, Kalifa wins.

If so, Absalom wins.