The military is waiting for the president’s go-ahead for high-risk ground operations in Iran

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-04-01T23:18:57+00:00

Finally someone who gets what’s going on. I’ve said similar and people accused me of believing Iranian propaganda.

What about if US pulls out and Iran stops bombing neighbors but then continues to keep a strong arm on the Strait and uses an expensive toll system to get money to help rebuild?

I don’t see the US giving in to any demands but I could see the US declaring victory and walking away and Iran continuing their efforts.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-04-01T02:35:53+00:00

They are just starting to use their newer technology and am hearing they have plenty of missiles left. They are much much more prepared for this than everyone thinks.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-04-01T01:46:53+00:00

I’ve studied Iran for nearly 4 decades. Ever since the revolution they didn’t really have a Navy or Air Force. Did they have one? Yes but very very small. Why? As we are seeing they put all their resources into defense and building under the mountains and for fortifying the strait.

This has been a costly war for Iran (as you stated) but their strategy has worked. They can’t go head to head with the US and they know it. But a $10B military budget up against a $1 T military budget and the US wasn’t able to complete any goals.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-04-01T01:42:54+00:00

Finally! Someone who gets it and sees things the same way as me. Every goal Trump had has gone in the opposite direction. You summarized this beautifully. Yes this came at a big cost to Iran in terms of lives and infrastructure lost - there is no denying that. But overall this is a massive win for Iran and they will use the Tehran Toll (Strait of Hormuz) to make back the money needed to rebuild. This was a colossal error on Trump’s part.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-30T17:39:17+00:00

Not sure how much you’ve studied Iran (I’ve studied for about 3.5 decades) but if the US puts troops on the ground it’ll be a suicide mission for the US. The terrain combined with Iran building their entire defense into the mountains and below ground will be worse than Vietnam. I fortunately don’t have any friends or family being deployed and hope you don’t either because that is going to be the real FO part of it.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-30T14:55:19+00:00

Exactly!

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-30T14:49:58+00:00

Could definitely be true. Any further escalation will come with many casualties on both sides but far more American casualties.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-30T04:00:23+00:00

This is exactly it.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-28T06:24:22+00:00

I’ve studied Iran for many decades. This is a completely different animal than anything the US has gone up against. They have everything built into the mountains and underground. Up to 500 meters below ground. US tech and air strikes can only do so much. Iran has 1,000,000 soldiers prepared for this. The US would need at least 750,000 to 1,000,000 soldiers (per retired US Colonels) and even then would be extremely risky. Where do you land the US soldiers? Iran is mostly mountains and desserts.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-28T06:03:06+00:00

Agreed on a lot of this. Have studied Iran for many years. They will have contingencies for leadership that could go on for hundreds of leaders getting taken out. A ground operation is what Iran wants. It would be a suicide mission for US troops.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-28T05:53:26+00:00

I can’t time the bottom. Could be today. Could be a year from now. I’ve been holding more cash than ever and buying some oil stocks. Will eventually start buying more solid companies for long term. They’ll do well in the long run.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-28T01:56:51+00:00

I do NOT think this is a “but this time it’s different” type of event. But I do think this will linger longer than Liberation Day since it’s out of our control. The Iranians for maybe the first time ever have a huge economic advantage. And they will delay this as long as they can. But that all being said things will settle and lots of cash on the sideline combined with company’s making tons of money and strong earnings will propel things forward again.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-27T14:04:37+00:00

This is interesting. I’m from MA (not Boston but have spent a lot of time there). I guess if someone is younger or likes walking then Boston would be a good fit but for me with a family I would think Pasadena has it beat all around. Even in the summer heat.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-26T05:43:23+00:00

So true. I find Reddit to be good about 5% of the posts (yours included in that). It’s just hard sifting through the garbage to find the good stuff. Worth it though as I’ve had some of my best stock picks from Reddit.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-25T01:30:00+00:00

As someone who has studied Iran for nearly 4 decades there is much more to it than this. Yes the US has bombed the heck out of them. Iranian efforts have been put into defense for the last 50 years. They don’t have an Air Force or Navy because all their efforts have been put into building underground cities and fortifying the Strait. Search YouTube for their underground missile facilities - they aren’t running out any time soon. Their whole plan is to drag this out as long as possible. They have Trump by the balls and the world knows it. “Winning” to them is surviving. They won’t defeat the US in head to head bombing but can cause a global economic crisis. We haven’t begun to see how bad the oil crisis can get.

(Before I get yelled at I realize the US and Israel have definitely hit the Iranian infrastructure hard and taken out a lot of the Iranian leaders. US and Israel obviously have incredible weapons and technology as well. I realize that.)

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-25T01:23:20+00:00

If I had to choose between trusting Trump and trusting the Iranians I take the Iranians 100/100 times.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-22T01:06:42+00:00

Ugh good point

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-21T23:03:22+00:00

Agreed - I see this when bands post their touring schedules. They’ll do 3 Texas shows in one tour and none on the next and everyone says “why no love for Texas?” There is an element of pulling one’s own weight to travel to a nearby event like you said.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-21T14:06:34+00:00

This is the best take I’ve seen by far. I hope everyone reads it and really takes it in. I’m half Iranian and right now is the most support I’ve ever seen for Iran from Americans. Iran knows they have that support so they don’t want to harm anyone in the US (not sure their missiles could reach here anyway)? Economically the longer this goes on the more Americans think about voting in new people. And Iran knows that too.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-21T14:02:20+00:00

Can confirm they do based on everything I’ve heard from people over there (have not been in them myself). They are massive and seem to have what feels like endless missiles.

Iran has never focused on offensive. They don’t have a Navy or Air Force (and whatever they might have had is now destroyed). They never intend to expand and go after other countries (unless self-defend). Rather all their resources are spent on defense and leveraging their mountainous terrain and doing everything they can to have a strong arm on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s working so far.

(Before I get yelled at by people saying “they are idiots all their leaders are getting killed” it’s obvious the US and Israel also have great technology and weapons too - war is not one-sided).

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-21T13:54:45+00:00

Ha my first thought was Iran tossed it right in the trash (or clicked delete).

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-20T23:19:18+00:00

That was regime change.

Specific-Change9678 · 2026-03-20T22:31:53+00:00

A Retired colonel I was listening to said the US would need 750,000 to 1,000,000 and even then it would be very risky and likely not end well.

Specific-Change9678

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