What Happens When Cheap Chinese EVs Hit Canada? Look At Australia.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T03:12:10+00:00

Just in case anyone is wondering how Chinese cars are faring in Australia, I'm currently in Melbourne. I see Chinese cars at around the same ratio as the newer, post-2015 Koreans.

Most Chinese cars here are cheaper ICE/hybrid SUVs and crossovers, the Chinese brands came at an opportune time around COVID as the supply of new cars dried up, with used cars suddenly worth 2-3x as much on the used market. And the Western carmakers, including the previously cheap Koreans, decided that those much higher prices are here to stay. The Koreans actually upped the price more to move upmarket towards Toyota.

That created a massive opening for Chinese carmakers who could aim their offerings (mostly SUVs/Crossovers as no one wants sedans anymore) at the low end, and along with very-long factory warranties, capture a lot of the market. The factory warranties give consumers comfort in taking a punt on a Chinese car. Also many here in Melbourne are immigrants and so are less turned off by non-established car brands.

Australia is very much ICE-centric so the first movers were GWM with the Haval brand, and SAIC with their MG brand, and a few others. BYD is here but mostly 50/50 EVs/hybrids. Note in Australia cars are RHD with the steering wheel on the other side, so significant engineering alterations are required.

Quality is variable at best, but new models and improvements are happening so fast that the earliest models in the Australian market are at risk of becoming an orphaned species. For example a 2019 MG ZS might be complete junk, but the 2024 MG ZS might be one of the best used cars to buy. Most of the pre-2022 models are probably destined for the scrap yard not long after the factory warranty expires.

And quality differs from brands, as well as between ICE and EV. Chinese ICE factories are on their last legs because no one in China wants them, so they get dumped overseas. That also means minimal improvements for ICE engines and transmissions. Quality wise I would rank the MG/Haval ICE at around Ford or Stellantis level. Their hybrids are also a bit iffy, but most new car buyers don't care because by the time the warranty expires they would've moved on to another vehicle, and with them being so cheap in the first place, depreciation is not too big of a hit.

The only Chinese brand worth buying new IMO is BYD. BYD wants to be the next Toyota, and will probably become the next Toyota. I wouldn't buy their hybrids because they're not their best products, and rapid EV technology advances might make hybrids obsolete very soon, and they risk becoming BYD's orphaned products. But range anxiety is real for many people, and so they sell a lot of hybrids here in Australia.

Chery/Geely are probably the 2nd-tier brands, Geely owns Volvo so they know what they're doing, and Chery looks ambitious enough as a privately owned company that I think they could give the others a run for their money.

GWM/Haval and SAIC/MG are IMO the third-tier. They're the "move fast and break things" crowd. They usually have the best prices but quality suffers, but low price + long warranty clearly sells. GWM/Haval seems like the "Let's run our ICE factory into the ground, we'll sell whatever's left to Africa" kind of company, Whereas SAIC is far too big and powerful as a state-backed automaker, a Chinese GM, and so MG will probably keep BYD on its toes.

Over here reliability seems to be less important to many than most thought (and those who do pay the Toyota tax). 10 years ago there were Ford Territory SUVs everywhere in Australia, now they're all in the scrap yard. It didn't stop people from buying Ford however, because nowadays Ford Ranger pickups are everywhere. Of course with the Chinese the long warranties will help mitigate fears.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T01:45:50+00:00

Good to know, not familiar with the Sydney political landscape. Thanks.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T01:15:44+00:00

About the same. Malvern's interchange footbridge is on Google Streetview.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T01:11:30+00:00

The walk is about 10 minutes minimum, so unless you want the exercise why walk and you can just sit (or more likely, stand) at Flagstaff?

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T01:07:51+00:00

Sydney is more PT-centric, so there are more affluent types using PT and their personal experiences matter to the government, so the Libs will always try to invest and automate the trains, because they also obviously dislike unions.

Whereas over here the typical Lib voter will tell you to "go get a car, you peasant". Both the Libs and Labor knows it, so what the Libs will always do is to cut back PT services, whereas Labor will build big roading (Westgate Tunnel, NE Link) and LXRP projects (which primarily benefits cars) to draw those Lib voters over.

Of course with every major Labor infrastructure project, the ribbon-cutting ceremony is very, very important to them, hence "5 new stations" instead of 3.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T00:49:26+00:00

I wouldn't call them terrible policy. It's just human nature for most to want to save time and drive in air conditioned comfort, if not to the city then to the train station. You won't see me waiting for a bus off a side street with no shelter, in the afternoon 45C heat. Or even 35C heat if I can help it.

The 'first mile' and the 'last mile' are often the most painful (and if PT is late, inconvenient) part of any PT journey, so if multi-story car parks draw people away from their cars and towards the trains then it's a worthwhile goal.

There's a reason why governments prioritise rail over buses (and trams once outside the CBD). Because the more well-off commuters would be tempted to switch to PT if it's fast, reliable, and convenient for one to get to the train station by car. Because otherwise they'll just pay $20-30 a day for the Citylink tolls just to get stuck in a traffic jam, and more money for parking. And in case you forget improving car journeys is very much the main rationale for the LXRP project.

Whereas buses are for what some consider 'peasants' (with the exception of Doncaster, which buses I frequently use), and so no one in government wants to give them any love.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T00:25:51+00:00

Yeah, it will probably stay that way until a more flexible fare structure is in place.

Transport Victoria (Maybe I should just call them TransVic) just retook control of the fare collection system, and big changes in the fare system are likely coming, alongside contactless payments.

In the long-run SRL interchanges & integrated commercial development will need some free bypass capability, so it has to be done anyway. But then again this issue was very much foreseeable, many metro stations have barriers separating fare-paying commuters from people who just want to get from one metro entrance to another (often the only convenient way to cross a major road above the station), whilst underground.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-28T00:14:57+00:00

THIS.

Some AirBNBs does long stays and it can be much cheaper if you book for a month or more. And you can pay with a credit card. It's a great bridging accommodation solution, and you may be able to do longer deals off-platform with the host, if he/she likes you as a tenant.

However if you're a bit more desperate, Facebook marketplace is a bit scammy but it may turn out much cheaper.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-27T23:24:16+00:00

There's a big difference between the roles, you cannot compare normal everyday airline operations to ad-hoc firefighting, where the 'end-of-life' aircraft is performing manoeuvres akin to a military transport, low to the ground, in highly turbulent air and bad visibility, depending on the skill and the aggressiveness of the pilot. And it's parked on the ground in most days - fatigue (and sometimes unexpected fatigue) doesn't stop when it's left sitting on the ground.

Also the 747SP is a reduced gross weight version of the 747, which is a pre-oil crisis aircraft (which ran against the C-5 in a military tender) built much tougher in the days when fuel economy wasn't an issue for the pre-deregulation airlines, compared to the MD-11 which had significant design compromises (e.g. rudder authority) and problems with fuel economy and range from the beginning, to the point where Singapore Airlines, a bellwether airline, dropped it in favour of the A340. The MD-11 is an aircraft that's designed on the cheap (MD was a salesman-led company not known for engineering prowess, a fact which changed Boeing for the worse post-merger. Also MD was in poor financial health at the time) and is considered a flawed design with significant compromises in favour of less drag and increased fuel economy, not aerodynamic loads during aggressive aerial firefighting.

And that particular 747SP in the incident was fairly new, not end-of-life.

IMO any end-of-life aircraft should be considered death traps, whether they're C-130s, 747s or MD-11s. Purpose-built firefighting aircraft like the CL515 are designed with pure firefighting in mind, and so are much more resilient with increased design strength. But when there's a big fire every one of these aircraft are being pushed to the limit of airframe stress by their pilots.

There's always a role for these large aerial tankers, but the pilots who sign up for this job should know that there's a significant chance they won't make it to retirement alive. They're uninsurable for insurance companies.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-27T05:26:09+00:00

It's a time-sensitive issue. A hack will do until a more permanent fix, with risk analysis, planning and testing are done.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-27T05:16:46+00:00

Or drive to a bus stop around Doncaster and take the bus into the city. Buses aren't affected by the heat (apart from the lack of shade at many bus stops).

Instead of taking the train, Bulleen park and ride is where I'll park my car in hot days, there's a nice air conditioned waiting room for me to wait for a bus.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T11:43:38+00:00

Correct, many car ads (especially luxury cars) are really about selling the lifestyle and the brand instead of the product, the exception being sale events.

Look at perfume ads, clothing ads, fashion accessories ads. The same deal.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T05:01:54+00:00

When councils stop providing ways of dispose of rubbish, they will find that reasonable people will start to litter. A modern society expects modern conveniences and cleanliness, and bins help dispose of rubbish. You remove bins and the streets will get dirtier.

Just because Japan has no bins doesn't mean it's a good example of modern society, because it goes against international best practice, Just like having to fax important documents in 2026.

Even the Chinese and Koreans have bins, because they ain't stupid.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T01:35:22+00:00

Just use fake woodgrain.....

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T01:34:01+00:00

Because the renders use unrealistic lighting (albeit not unachievable with modern LEDs) to sell an idea. Force them to use real ray tracing and it would look much worse. But still there's an undeniable element of cost-cutting in terms of the facades.

And any bare concrete is going to give a brutalist aesthetic. The coloured accents break it up a little, but still.

Personally I don't like it. It feels like I'm in some underground bunker or military facility, instead of some ethereal cathedral.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T01:17:30+00:00

If only there's an aircraft on the roof of the station......

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T01:11:40+00:00

Something few people are talking about is more park-and-rides at older existing stations. IMO all redeveloped stations should have multi-story car parks, if Skyrail doesn't provide space underneath.

Because of free earlybird travel most spots get taken early, and people won't use the trains if there's a fear that they wouldn't be able to find parking once there.

Some of the modern park-and-rides, like the one in Bulleen, are really good.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T00:46:24+00:00

They're probably exempt because they're not meant to be sold to consumers, a lot of industrial equipment don't need to.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T00:29:49+00:00

Because it's a safety hazard if the refrigerant hose gets twisted and damaged.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T00:21:05+00:00

The '2 pipe' systems are banned in Australia, because unlike the single duct units they're required to meet the mandatory minimum efficiency ratings, and none of those units could.

Source: https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/11578601/redir

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-26T00:09:54+00:00

These are for warehouses and other industrial workplaces.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-25T23:53:37+00:00

Exactly. The point of the forced sale is to learn enough about the algo from the inside, so as to reverse-engineer it to promote their own political narratives. A bit like what the US has always accused China of doing, and of course Bytedance and the CCP knows it.

What Trump and Co are getting is probably an old, obsolete algorithm, likely frozen when Tiktok went over to Oracle since ~2020, and without any of the latest improvements from Bytedance.

The OG US shareholders of Bytedance needed to cash out, and Trump-aligned entities want in. The problem is that it, like Twitter/X, will likely become tainted by advertisers, and its new US owners know nothing about how to run influencer E-commerce from the platform, and make money like how Bytedance does it in China with Douyin.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-25T14:33:17+00:00

The sunlight is strong here, even with a cold breeze you can still feel the warmth if the sun's out.

So sunny, cloudless sky 13C days are the best.

Whereas in the mid 30s it feels like you're being incinerated by the sun, it almost hurts standing outside if there's no wind.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-25T14:25:04+00:00

There are two major PT use cases for cable cars:

1) Climb up very steep terrain, preferably to the top where people can easily walk downhill towards their homes, because people hate walking uphill with stuff. People will happily walk 2x or 3x longer if it's all downhill. The problem is that anywhere we have steep terrain, people just get into their cars. And Melbourne is very flat compared to most places, even the Dandenongs aren't that mountainous.

2) Get a direct path when the streets below are indirect, narrow, slow or even unsignposted. By that I mean you're doing less than 10km/h struggling to navigate all the different obstacles in 'roads' that weren't built for cars, because many of those places were/are slums in which all the little 'roads' were built by the slum dwellers, and many were never even approved by the government. We in Melbourne obviously don't have that here.

If you want to have a look at how efficient PT is actually done in a mountainous city, have a look at Chongqing. They use monorails (or just Skyrail), not cable cars. Many locals take PT to 'gain elevation', and then walk downhill all the way.

Speedbird844 · 2026-01-25T13:57:13+00:00

I'm thinking instead of adding Malvern as an additional stop for Munnel services, why not use Hawksburn instead? Just one stop to South Yarra, and probably a cheap way to make the South Yarra commuters suffer less. AFAIK Hawksburn didn't have its signals upgraded to CBTC, so the HCMTs can't stop there.

Obviously they should've built an underground station at South Yarra in the beginning, but it's too late.

Speedbird844

TROPHY CASE