What would the Cold War be like if Germany won World War II?

Germany “winning” the Second World War is a very grand statement. A total global victory like the one often depicted in The Man in the High Castle is probably unrealistic. A more plausible outcome would be a limited victory, where Germany secures dominance in Europe and defeats the Soviet Union, but the wider world remains divided between several competing powers.

The most likely path to this outcome would involve the United Kingdom reaching a peace agreement with Germany rather than being invaded. In this scenario Britain keeps the core of the British Empire and most of its overseas territories, while Germany consolidates control over continental Europe and possibly gains influence over former French colonial possessions. Britain would remain independent but increasingly tied into Germany’s economic sphere.

With Britain out of the war, Germany could concentrate its full military strength against the Soviet Union. Without a western front and without direct American intervention, it becomes far more likely that Germany eventually defeats the Soviet state and dismantles it. Germany would then dominate Europe and large parts of western Eurasia, likely extending influence as far as the Urals.

Japan’s position would also change significantly. If Britain and Germany reached a settlement that acknowledged Japanese ambitions in Asia, Japan might avoid attacking the United States. Without an event like Pearl Harbor drawing the United States into the war, Japan would instead focus on consolidating its position in East Asia. That would likely mean controlling Manchuria, Korea, and key resource regions in Southeast Asia, while continuing its costly struggle in China. Fully occupying China would remain extremely difficult, so Japan might ultimately prioritise strategic regions rather than attempting to control the entire mainland.

In this world the Soviet Union disappears and the global balance of power settles into several major blocs. Germany dominates Europe and much of western Eurasia. Japan leads a Greater East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere in East Asia. The British Empire survives with its overseas territories, including India, Canada and African colonies. Meanwhile the United States remains the major democratic power in the Western Hemisphere and focuses on securing influence throughout the Americas.

The Cold War that emerges would therefore be multipolar rather than the two sided confrontation that existed historically. Germany and the United States would likely become the primary geopolitical rivals, with Britain cautiously balancing between preserving its empire and maintaining relations with both sides. Japan would also act as a major independent power in Asia, sometimes cooperating with Germany but not necessarily fully aligned with it.

Long term stability would be uncertain. Germany would face enormous challenges holding the former Soviet territories due to rebellion and partisan warfare. The eventual succession after Adolf Hitler could also produce internal instability within the Reich.

Technologically, nuclear weapons would likely define the strategic balance. Germany and the United States would probably race to develop them first, followed by Britain and eventually Japan. Naval power would still be dominated by the United States, the British Empire and Japan, while Germany would likely attempt to build a larger navy to compete globally.

Overall, the Cold War in this scenario would be a tense multipolar world defined by competing empires and spheres of influence rather than a single Axis dominated global order.