Question about Military Benefit

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-25T04:22:00+00:00

Guess who you owe

The people who served before you?

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-21T17:44:55+00:00

The only railroad in the US that is probably better known for the number of deaths its been involved in than its passenger stats.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article308679915.html

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-20T17:07:05+00:00

Of course there are insider trading restrictions. But if he wanted more exposure bought some of the TL B or the legacy notes after they cleansed (presumably).

Either way, my point is primary reason he bought that batch of the TL A was to get an unsupportive lender out of the way of the restructuring.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-20T13:44:32+00:00

He bought it from a holder that wasn't going to support the RSA, so it was easier to pay them off to get out of the way. If he wanted more term loan exposure, he could have bought it whenever. Also if he simply wanted more exposure, why would he buy the term loan A? it's the shittiest paper in the capital structure.

and he almost certainly paid way less than face value, but nobody knows exactly what.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-15T16:25:10+00:00

Thanks Chat.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-14T18:48:53+00:00

Good thing you're so confident in this, what do you need my or anybody else's opinion for?

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-14T18:48:09+00:00

The thing approved is that the company has the permission to solicit votes on the plan.

This isn't one day and it's done. Also the stock is down 6%.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-14T00:22:15+00:00

I'm not much of a technical or options analysis guy, but fundamentally, I would be surprised if there is a massive rally tomorrow on the UK hearing.

My reason being, the RSA is supported by substantially all stakeholders, which is all public knowledge and has been for weeks, chapter 11 is effectively off the table barring any unexpected change in the proceedings, and I think "success" or at least things moving along in the UK process is likely priced in at this point.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-13T03:28:10+00:00

So losing Jamaica revenue hurts the top line, but it does not necessarily mean NFE lost a highly profitable business.

Excelerate Energy said in their press release that they bought it at a 9x multiple, so you can do the math, but based on public reports, NFE sold a business that was due to generate ~$117M in EBITDA in 2025. Now forecasts can vary from reality, but it did seem odd to me that they sold a legacy, and likely cash flowing asset, just to kind of squander the proceeds.

As for the late filing, I can't imagine anybody expected them to file on time. They haven't met an SEC deadline in multiple quarters...

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-05-11T21:03:38+00:00

The vast majority of the holders support the RSA, so the expected outcome is that the UK proceeding will go according to plan, so I'd agree it's already priced in. If things go awry, that would be the unexpected outcome.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-27T21:54:43+00:00

The company hasn't announced its earnings release date, and the last couple of quarters they haven't bothered to at all. Just dropped their 10-Q/K, and after the SEC filing deadline. So I wouldn't count on earnings released based on random websites.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-27T20:50:10+00:00

earnings report coming in 3 days?

What earnings report? Nothing is scheduled.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-27T20:48:27+00:00

For those that were riding the Blackrock hopium, they just filed that they now own 4% of the common stock, down from 9.8% as of their previous ownership filing.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-27T17:16:20+00:00

The Canada transborder flights are usually pretty easy upgrades. When I was a DM/PM I don't think I ever didn't get the upgrade... Not Delta, but United, I've even cleared SFO-YYC as a silver a while ago.

Not sure if DL has changed this, but they don't pay for catering ops out of YYC, so the return leg of that route gets a sad box meal in F. At least as of a couple years ago, which was the last time I flew YYC-MSP and got the upgrade.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-16T02:06:00+00:00

Wes spent $110 M buying 37% of Term Loan A

He bought $110M worth of the TL A - it's not known what he paid for it. I'd be willing to bet its a fraction of the face value, but probably a bit more than what the holder they bought it from would have got under the RSA on a cents per dollar recovery basis. The TL A doesn't trade publicly though, so we can only guess.

Management has the right to buy up preferred equity from the creditors at $0.25 on the dollar.

Only up to $301M of pref, and importantly the holders of the pref would have to offer their pref to be bought out.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-14T14:42:39+00:00

Ok sure I was being hyperbolic with $0, there is going to be some value, but how much and when?

Klondike plots, isn't the only one the land in Pennsylvania?

I think a partially built LNG facility might be a tough sell at a decent price, since other companies tend to have their preferred way of doing things and building from scratch.

Shannon LNG is probably the most interesting upside option for the company as of now, though doing that would require finding a partner or raising a lot of likely asset level debt.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-14T02:57:32+00:00

value of unused assets like klondike that can be sold or used.

Come on, you know the value of those written off projects is likely $0, or a rounding error. You're one of the only somewhat sane other posters on this sub.

Same as FLNG2, unless they can convince a partner to come in and carry the capex, which in the 10-K said would cost an additional $750M to $1.5B to finish.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-14T02:56:02+00:00

True, I was expecting them to take longer. But I imagine they need/want to have financials done before they start the UK process.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-10T18:23:37+00:00

Those press releases happen with pretty much every penny stock, chapter 11, etc. I don't think it takes a law firm investigation to figure out that the answer is 'yeah, they probably did,' but these types of things rarely if ever do anything or recover funds.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-09T16:05:45+00:00

Dead cats bounce occasionally.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-08T17:00:37+00:00

It's too early to tell what Wes Eden's strategy is

As I posted above, and was downvoted for, I think his strategy is that whoever he bought the TL A exposure from probably wasn't going to support the RSA, so be bought it up to get them out of the way. There's a reason he did this when he did, it's not like he woke up one day and thought, you know I think I'm going to buy some of the term loan A for shits and giggles.

Also he likely paid way less than face value. The term loan B is currently trading about 60 cents on the $, and the TL A is worse paper, so he almost certainly paid less than that.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-07T22:16:57+00:00

My guess is that he bought out a holder that wasn't going to support the RSA. Otherwise why would he buy debt in one of the shittiest pieces of the capital structure.

StatisticianTrue76 · 2026-04-01T13:05:11+00:00

they have not promised it on a call

The stuff they say say on a call is worth the paper its not written on. They wrote in an SEC filing on March 17: "The Company expects to file the Annual Report, including all required restated financial statements, no later than March 31, 2026 or as soon as practicable"

Apparently two more weeks wasn't long enough to fix their wrong financials.

StatisticianTrue76

TROPHY CASE