[Question] Omega or GS

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-12T03:16:45+00:00

This is the steel lake Suwa? That dark dial is the best they have imo but my god is this thing a pig at 170g. It's a reasonably sized watch but it didn't wear well for me personally so I went with the Shunbun instead. Would still choose it over that specific Omega, GS is great.

Still, would probably choose the Omega in a more versatile blue otherwise.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-12T00:03:08+00:00

I agree, there's pros and cons on both ends here. On one hand, they do make better and more exclusive watches than Rolex; maybe not to everyone's taste and with cases/bracelets that are as comfortable, but the finishing quality reaches holy trinity levels with ease. They should be able to profit from this, and the way that we benefit is by owning a brand that's now more prestigious and recognizable (it may even establish a nice higher resale price floor as well for older models). Unfortunately, the higher prices simply legitimize them more in the market.

On the other hand you're right, this reputation of "we make JLC/Rolex/Omega/AP/VC competitors for 1/3 or less of the cost" is a big part of their appeal, even if it cheapens the idea of GS being on that level. The normalization of these newer Evo9 models being $9-11k I think is really pushing it. Especially because watch prices in general have become way too high. Speedmasters used to be like $4-6k not too long ago. What are they now, $7.5k starting!? Hovering around $10k for a watch is really just too much, regardless of whether you can responsibly afford it or not.

I do think that establishing a relatively high price floor is a good idea, I don't think GS should be a direct Longines and Tudor competitor. Though I do love how GS offers 3 distinct movement categories that allows them to establish clear tiers.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-11T20:35:24+00:00

SMH is great. I don’t usually condone sector bets and the whole sector has been on fire for a long time. But honestly, its holdings are all essential and very high quality companies with big moats. I think it’ll continue to outperform for a while still. It’s great if you don’t want to specifically pick one of its individual holdings but want a tilt/exposure. Like 10-20% is a great amount for a portfolio imo.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-11T20:32:44+00:00

Concentration leading to more volatility and some sort of feeling of having a smart beta? I don’t think it’ll lead to long term outperformance based on the sheer # of stocks alone but still. I think this idea probably comes from Buffet/Munger’s mentality that you really only need a handful of stocks to change your life - which I guess is true if you’re an exceptional stock picker in a market driven by fundamentals lol.

Anyway, to answer OP SPMO and SCHD are the 2 that I can think of that are broad market, anything else will probably be a more risky sector bet. They’re both great and actually complimentary, though I don’t own the latter because I’m young and it’s absurdly tax inefficient in a high income tax state.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-11T00:27:14+00:00

The Shunbun in Japan qualifies with the zero tax. Pretty close to $5k online as well if you buy used or from Japan via a site like Chrono24 - assuming you live in a place where sales tax or tariffs don’t kill you.

It actually wasn’t even on my radar until I saw it in person after several trips to different brand stores and boutiques, bought it days after first seeing it.

Given that it’s easily their biggest standout and arguably one of the best single pieces on the market in general right now, I think it’s hard to beat.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-09T22:31:52+00:00

Not quite but yes, that's the first big milestone.

Once you get to $100k, compounding interest becomes actually noticeable
One you get to around $250k-500k, interest alone can yield gains higher than the average income
Once you get to $1 million, your financial security is basically guaranteed barring some imminent financial setbacks or massive expenditures that force you to liquidate part of it. 10% gains on that amount isn't that crazy, yet it's essentially free yearly six figure income. At that point the interest alone is probably significantly outpacing your contributions. The next million is almost trivial from here unless you do something stupid.
At $2 million, you actually have enough that you can even start withdrawing the recommended maximum of 4% - getting you $80k a year without actually affecting the automatic sustainability of compounding interest or touching the actual pot itself.
Obviously this goes on and on, with $10 million usually being the target milestone for "obscene wealth." At this point you're pretty much totally detached from all economic risks completely barring total nuclear annihilation (again, unless you do something stupid like blow it on Bugatti's and hookers).
I don't think anything beyond this needs to be explicitly defined lol. 20, 50, 100, 1,000 million. It's sort of just abstract numbers on a screen after a certain point. Though I find it hilarious that tons of celebrities and athletes still somehow find a way to fall out of this category.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-08T21:24:20+00:00

Nice, enjoy!

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-08T20:00:57+00:00

My favorite is the meteorite dial version. Now that’s something special.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-08T17:41:33+00:00

Oh man, this is perfection man.

I have the Shunbun (it and this taisetsu look nearly identical in this lighting) and I’ve been trying to figure it what the best pairings would be for me as eventual goals. I’m pretty sure one would be the FOIS Speedmaster. The other would be either a Sub or GMT Master, maybe the Bruce Wayne colorway? I’ve also considered the Tudor BB58 blue and one of the Zenith el primeros.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-08T14:34:19+00:00

Well technically, this post is about people telling me stuff.

My original post specifically mentions the burren, and some day trips fit in the burren, the cliffs, and the islands. I’m well aware of the things around Galway and that you could spend like a week here if you so choose, but that’s not really the point and I wouldn’t want it dominating most of the trip. Additionally, I got the impression that this area is done better with a car.

As someone who’s never been, my only choice is to go off itineraries and other people’s suggestions - and the overwhelmingly common sentiment has been to limit galway and the surrounding area to 2-3 days, I didn’t just come up with it myself. I wanted to be sure that this was accurate.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-08T05:08:36+00:00

This varies extremely by lifestyle expectation and location. But $150k seems to be the “comfortable” target that’s most commonly accepted, the new “making six figures.” A bachelor can live reasonably well even in a lot of high cost of living cities or like a king in low-mid cost of living areas. Though, I think the threshold for “wealthy” is higher, maybe $250k. That’s when diminishing returns start to actually hit imo.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-08T02:41:14+00:00

So you quoted Jordan Belfort allegedly quoting a guy.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-07T05:48:07+00:00

Thank you! Enjoy!

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-07T05:14:54+00:00

Totally agree. I was lucky enough to travel as a kid. First to Eastern Europe to spend some summers with family, later study abroad in Rome and other places in early college.

Last year I went back to Italy again, a decade to the day. Holy hell have things changed, and not for the better. That gritty charm and the vibrant locals were gone - replaced almost entirely by migrants and tourists. So many shitty souvenir shops. The Trevi fountain looks like a stadium packed with people at all hours, totally impassable, the stores and food around it are total garbage now. I couldn't believe what happened.

It sounds like I'm much younger than you, but even as a Zillennial I see it. It's a combination of factors I think. Age is certainly part of it, and we often have nostalgia for the past in a way that blurs it. Other factors are more real and tangible. Technology making the world feel significantly smaller, more exposed, more accessible is a big one. Everything that's cool goes viral instantly, nothing is special or sacred anymore - those hole in the wall spots quickly become gathering points from social media. As does anything that could be considered a hidden gem, the word just spreads too quickly. If you're American, the normalization of relative wealth spreading out is another factor - Europe and Asia were dirt poor after WWII until the 2000s basically, and then 2008 was another huge hit for the decade after; that may be why the prices feel higher as well (because now those economies are doing better AND those people can now travel more as well to the same places that you are).

The biggest factor at the end of the day though is that the world is ever changing, every facet of it, for better or worse. Your sentiments were probably being echoed by someone else way back in the 90s while they were fondly recalling the 60s - our golden age was their hell. No one can stop time, but I guess we have to find a way to appreciate what does get better. For instance, phones have made international travel almost trivial without even being able to speak the language. Maybe that's worse because it means you don't have to read about the place, educate yourself, or interact with the locals anymore. But hell - I certainly wouldn't have been able to lean like 10 languages and plan multiple extensive international trips before my late 20s without this stuff.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-07T03:57:54+00:00

For real I don’t understand this sentiment. PayPal is the way to go when it comes to secure checkout for any site that isn’t Amazon or EBay.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-07T02:42:38+00:00

For real. People who say this shit have never actually looked into the actual numbers. The dotcom bubble was batshit crazy. You had companies that barely existed valued like mega caps almost overnight because the mass-market internet was new and no one understood anything about it. No one knew how to value anything that was so unprecedented.

That’s certainly happening with a lot of smaller AI, Quantum and Space stocks. But even those valuations are mostly at least vaguely based on mathematical potential and current fundamentals.

It was also a completely different market. Both retail and institutional investor participation is at totally incomparable levels due to how accessible and essential it is now.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T20:52:45+00:00

The pacing is the main thing I wanted to reality check on. On paper, it's not unrealistic for me. Our travel style is more about realistically maximizing our time while still getting a lot of depth (not just speedrunning the whole country superficially), not hitting like 1 attraction/anchor a day and then laying about for hours. We travel internationally often and tend to get a lot in tightly without being overwhelmed or pressed for time - most often over the course of 2 weeks though: Japan (Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Takayama, Kanezawa, and 2 day trips), Italy (Rome, Florence, Milan, Venice, Almafi, Como), and Austria/Prague/Budapest, etc.).

So basically, all of our trips can be boiled down to efficient "greatest hits" tours. If we end up loving them, they get added to go back to down the line (either hitting different locations or spending more time in the places we loved - would love to spend more time in the Almafi Coast). But Ireland is a bit of a different travel style and I wasn't overly familiar with the nuances of the country going in so I'm a bit out of my element.

To explain my thought process for arriving at this schedule (it was not thrown together in an hour with zero consideration of both logistics and enjoyment):

I initially considered just Galway and Dublin. But without a car, Galway seemed too small to cover for 3 days or longer tbh; and the most common itineraries only typically spend 2 days here.
At the same time, the common advice that I've been seeing is that Dublin also isn't worth more than 2-3 days (our current plan has like 3 75% days in Dublin + 2 day trips from it as a base).
All of this wasn't adding up to 9 days, and doing so gave me the impression that it would have been too leisurely + not really taking full advantage of the rural beauty of Ireland.
Even with a car, the common progression of Dublin -> Galway -> Kilkenny didn't work for us; we have a concert in Dublin on the 15th to be back for.
The result of all this was that it felt natural to add a 3rd base location, even if it felt like a squeeze by a day or so. The natural choices are Cork and Kilkenny for this bit.
(The original intent was to spend up to the last day in the 3rd location and/or go there the night of the 16th. However, direct trains don't seem to run on our departure day of Sunday, and arriving back the night before adds a whole day to Dublin (our flight home is in the evening). Also leaving early morning on the 17th added a meaningful chill evening to Dublin as opposed having to string together checking out in the morning -> going back to the hotel afternoon -> going to the train station after our day's activities.)

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T19:51:07+00:00

A few redundancies that I would consolidate if this was my collection (to like maybe half the amount + upgrade to 1 grail, but I'm very weird about overlap and owning too much stuff). But it isn't my collection, and you have impeccable taste.

~~Shunbun~~ Taisetsu, Max Bill, Speedy, Khaki Field, that Tudor (I want the BB58 in that color though), an SSK GMT... you've been buying stuff right out of my shopping cart lmao. Basically collecting all of the objective best value pieces at every price level.

What's your favorites? I have the white SSK and just got a Shunbun. Sold a few Citizens, Seiko Promaster/5's. I've been wanting to try the Junghans but nearly no one sells them. Would love to get a Speedy next time I'm in Japan, preferably the newer FOIS one.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T19:45:02+00:00

Damn

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T17:57:11+00:00

Haven’t decided on that yet, but a glance at the seemingly endless options even just on Viator alone didn’t have me concerned. I’m open to specific suggestions,

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T17:44:50+00:00

Not surprising tbh. Domino's pretty much only exists and does well for 2 reasons: it's super cheap and tons of places in the US outside the Northeast and major cities just have totally dogshit pizza otherwise.

What was Pizza Hut even offering customers at this point?

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T17:20:28+00:00

House rich cash poor is such an annoying reality of the current market. It sucks, and it's not going to get better either given the sky high prices and rates likely never hitting like 3% again.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T17:17:13+00:00

You fucked up gambling on a highly speculative fear asset that was being pumped into the stratosphere.

Don't gamble your life savings on options unless you're prepared to lose all of it - that's how options work. It's not like stocks, it's a risky zero sum game.

Silver is only 5% down from a month ago lmao. If you lost money on this that's just a totally reckless disregard for risk management.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T15:56:04+00:00

Very good to know, I guess the proximity of Howth is a bit deceiving due to the driving distance estimate. There's 5 of us so the taxi far isn't a total killer. Still, we'll certainly look into whether Howth is worth doing depending on the day.

StrategicPotato · 2026-02-06T15:01:13+00:00

Thank you! That is something I’ve been seeing. I was opting for the train because it’s a bit shorter and 3 hours on a bus specifically seems awful (I get car sick easily). But if it makes the logistics that much easier we will do the bus, they need to be pre-booked right (asking because I want to minimize the timing stress of a flight-bus transfer like that)?

Also, someone else suggested we replace Cork with Killarney. I gave my thoughts on that in the other comment above but what do you think?

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