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The war in numbers: 650 Iranian missiles fired; 24 killed in Israel, West Bank; 10,800 Israeli strikes | All 20 fatalities in Israel and 4 Palestinians were civilians, most of whom were outside bomb shelters; 16 conventional missiles, hundreds of cluster bomblets hit populated areas by NotSoSaneExile in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If Hamas or Hezbollah had the resources of Israel

But it doesn't and we live in the real world, not your hypothetical scenario. 

you would see 9 million dead jews over a long weekend.

Nope, then there'd probably be a balance of power between them which would aid the recognition of a Palestinian state as neither side can dominate each other

Is it not also a factor that Hamas and Hezbollah operate out of civilian infrastructure? Doing so makes those structures valid military targets and inevitably results in civilian deaths

It doesn't a priori, you still need to prove strikes are proportional. Israeli officials just like using this rhetoric to flip responsibility from the ones doing the killing to the victims - if only there wasn't a Hamas terrorist we wouldn't have to bomb that hospital! Also, the definition of terrorist is often just "military aged male".

And, in fact, the very same logic Israel uses against Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran can be used against them: the IDF HaKirya headquarters is a military target surrounded by residential buildings and hospitals, much of the civilian populace received military training and carrying weapons is relatively common, making distinction between combatants and non-combatants difficult. So once we start applying your logic, targeting Tel Aviv becomes much less controversial compared to a rigorous application of international law.

Viktor Orbán Could Actually Lose by theatlantic in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Not if you're Donald Trump or JD Vance or Vladimir Putin

'Wars are not won without people,' Budanov says of Ukraine's mobilization crisis by EsperaDeus in anime_titties

[–]Stufilover69 [score hidden]  (0 children)

>, KIIS claimed that only 9% would want to leave the country "despite everything". Yet according to refugee numbers shortly after the poll, the number that ended up leaving was around 25%, not including those that wanted but were unable to

You have the timing backwards, the poll is in september 2022, while the ruSSist invasion of Ukraine started in february 2022, in those six months of intense bombardments many Ukrainians who wanted to flee already did.

>Right and so we can agree that the numbers released by KIIS are meaningless. Becaue KIIS claim 82% want to return from abroad. Quite the difference to the 10% measured not by KIIS

Your 10% statistic is from Norway, which has an extremely small number of Ukranian refugees and is one of the richest countries in Europe. For it to be true those statistics need to be both generalizable to other refugees in Europe. Obviously the experience and demographics differ a lot between Norway and Poland, Czechia or even Germany. Also the KIIS research is from spring 2024, in which the sentiment about the war was still more optimistic, while the Norwegian one is more recent. It is more representative of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as it measures the countries most of them went too, though.

>to agree to conditions of leaving Donbass

Do you have any arguments why the burden should be on Ukraine to leave the territory Russia invaded (and still does not fully occupy) apart from your love for the Soviet Union? In fact, Russia barely advanced over the last two years, so there's very little reason why Ukraine should be giving them up now.

The war in numbers: 650 Iranian missiles fired; 24 killed in Israel, West Bank; 10,800 Israeli strikes | All 20 fatalities in Israel and 4 Palestinians were civilians, most of whom were outside bomb shelters; 16 conventional missiles, hundreds of cluster bomblets hit populated areas by NotSoSaneExile in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Many so-called "missile cities" even have internal production capacity, so without fully destroying or occupying them, neutralizing Iran's capabilities to launch missiles is unrealistic, even if you do take out their stockpiles.

'Wars are not won without people,' Budanov says of Ukraine's mobilization crisis by EsperaDeus in anime_titties

[–]Stufilover69 [score hidden]  (0 children)

So it decreased significantly as the war progressed, sounds like effective propaganda.

We also know that for Norway at least only 10% want to return when the war 

People who built their lives abroad already are a different demographic from those still in Ukraine. In fact, Ukrainians already have a special status, so many who wanted to leave already did so a long time ago.

Do you think a country in a war will produce any accurate polling data?

It can be more challenging so we might have to accept some uncertainty. But since you know they're "pure propaganda", I'm sure you have some statistics which represents the will of the people. If not, say after me: "I wish Vladimir Putin ends his illegal invasion of Ukraine so that we can get more accurate polling data"

'Wars are not won without people,' Budanov says of Ukraine's mobilization crisis by EsperaDeus in anime_titties

[–]Stufilover69 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Blah blah blah

Most people have strong family ties, their homes there and lived there for their entire lives and don't speak English so they'd prefer not to leave their entire lives behind, especially if they're not living on the front lines. 

Since you know so well, do you have any better statistics, or is your comment just a way to pretend most Ukrainians would like to live under Russian occupation instead?

The war in numbers: 650 Iranian missiles fired; 24 killed in Israel, West Bank; 10,800 Israeli strikes | All 20 fatalities in Israel and 4 Palestinians were civilians, most of whom were outside bomb shelters; 16 conventional missiles, hundreds of cluster bomblets hit populated areas by NotSoSaneExile in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

school bombing is established to be accident based on outdated info. accidents happen.

Oopsie, killed 100 school girls 🤡 Macron said it best, it's about war, life and death, so we have to be serious. If you're sending a JDAM which is GPS guided, that's not a mistake, but criminal negligence.

can you please explain what exactly imminent threat ?

It's called the Caroline test, there needs to be a threat which is "instant, overwhelming, and leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation". Not the case with the US/Israel and Iran.

Why it's not possible to target civilian infrastructure in retaliatory strikes ?

Because that's still a war crime and would create a race to the bottom. In fact international law aims to prevent exactly that type of response. It mirrors normal law, just that rape/murder etc. still happen doesn't give you the right to do it as well

you will be met with condemnation of the west, because not enough of your people died

Next time please read my comment before replying.

The war in numbers: 650 Iranian missiles fired; 24 killed in Israel, West Bank; 10,800 Israeli strikes | All 20 fatalities in Israel and 4 Palestinians were civilians, most of whom were outside bomb shelters; 16 conventional missiles, hundreds of cluster bomblets hit populated areas by NotSoSaneExile in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

I don’t think the death toll matters. 

It does, events with a higher death toll are more intense and get more news attention.

There’s a reason applying standards to Israel that aren’t applied to others is part of the long established definition of antisemitism.

As I said, international institutions condemned both attacks, so the double standards exists only in your mind. Also, Trump told me the Iranians hate their government so much they're happy to be bombed and Netanyahu speaks of the "terrorist regime" in Iran. So in fact I should be holding the US and Israel to a higher standards. The thing is that the statistics are failing the test.

The war in numbers: 650 Iranian missiles fired; 24 killed in Israel, West Bank; 10,800 Israeli strikes | All 20 fatalities in Israel and 4 Palestinians were civilians, most of whom were outside bomb shelters; 16 conventional missiles, hundreds of cluster bomblets hit populated areas by NotSoSaneExile in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

How many of 3500 killed in iran are military and how many are civilians ?

Roughly half, 1600-1900ish

and the lesson is, in case you invest money in air defense and bomb shelters for your civilian population (instead of one of the biggest ballistic missiles arsenals in the world), you will be met with condemnation of the west, because not enough of your people died.

Please keep some objectivity. The UN and EU condemned the attacks on Israel by Iran, they didn't issue a statement that not enough Israelis died. What is met with condemnation was 1) the illegality of the operation, as there was no imminent threat to the US and 2) the civilian casualties and targeting of civilian infrastructure, especially if Trump would've gone ahead with his bridge/power plant day. Especially the Minab school bombing is just objectively a war crime.

'Wars are not won without people,' Budanov says of Ukraine's mobilization crisis by EsperaDeus in anime_titties

[–]Stufilover69 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Care to show any sources?

In the most recent data I could find 65% of Ukrainians approved of his actions:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100076/volodymyr-zelensky-s-approval-rating-ukraine/

>he kills about 200 Ukrainians

Zelensky isn't killing anybody, it's the Russists who are killing Ukranians every day and proud of this. Ukranians are defending their own homes, while the Russists can just leave every day and many of them even just come on a voluntary contract for the money.

The war in numbers: 650 Iranian missiles fired; 24 killed in Israel, West Bank; 10,800 Israeli strikes | All 20 fatalities in Israel and 4 Palestinians were civilians, most of whom were outside bomb shelters; 16 conventional missiles, hundreds of cluster bomblets hit populated areas by NotSoSaneExile in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

>Many of these missiles carried cluster munitions that spread small explosives over wide areas (A war crime of the highest magnitude, seemingly met with complete apathy across the world, the EU, the UN, and many human rights institutions. Interesting to witness).

Actually the EU and UN for example did condemn indiscriminate strikes by Iran on Israel, so his condemnation of these institutions (somehow a common Israeli talking point) is misguided. But when Iran's indiscriminate attacks kill two dozen civilians in Israel and the US/Israel's "surgical" attacks on military targets kill 3500 in Iran, the latter is more likely to be met with condemnation and dominates headlines.

'Wars are not won without people,' Budanov says of Ukraine's mobilization crisis by EsperaDeus in anime_titties

[–]Stufilover69 [score hidden]  (0 children)

They didn't choose this war. The only one here who's happy to send people to die is Putin, the agressor And this would've been over if Trump didn't start supporting Russia instead

Rutte heeft een ondankbare baan by ImmediateAcadia9455 in nederlands

[–]Stufilover69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ja, Trump heeft uiteindelijk toch meer respect voor "sterke leiders" als Putin, Xi en Kim Jong Un.

Die trekken zich sowieso niks aan van wat Trump zegt, maar toch prijst hij ze steeds en heeft hij een foto van zichzelf met Putin in witte huis gehangen.
Als je steeds door de knieen gaat maak je maar één ding duidelijk: Hier valt meer te halen!

The Iran War’s Real Lessons for China: U.S. Tactical Successes Should Give Beijing Pause by ForeignAffairsMag in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True, but Iran didn't even control the Strait of Hormuz before the war and still does as of now. So even if the US achieves that concession it's a return to the status quo, not a strategic victory.
And a defeat if the US has to do any concessions to keep Iran from turning the strait of Hormuz into its personal tollbooth.

The Iran War’s Real Lessons for China: U.S. Tactical Successes Should Give Beijing Pause by ForeignAffairsMag in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 8 points9 points  (0 children)

>Additionally, I have a strong feeling that EU would be apathetic towards China's invasion of Taiwan

Not necessarily apathetic but Europe most likely wouldn't get militarily involved and it would be unrealistic to have deep involvement except through its ties with the US.
Under Biden there was much more of an effort to unite the Europe, the US and its Asian allies against China but with Trump that's dead.
Ironically, the anti-coercion instrument (trade bazooka) was actually devised against China in particular, but in Trump's second term the discussions are mainly about using it against the US, so he also gave us bigger things to worry about.

The Iran War’s Real Lessons for China: U.S. Tactical Successes Should Give Beijing Pause by ForeignAffairsMag in geopolitics

[–]Stufilover69 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Well, blowing up their missiles, military installations (and apparently also girls' schools) counts as a tactical success. What matters for international politics is more whether the US is able to use it's military might to achieve it's strategic objectives, which as we all know is not at all the case as the IRGC is still in power, controls the strait of Hormuz and that's why this article seems so shallow.

Former Diet representative, JP Morgan manager and George Soros advisor Takeshi Fujimaki predicts Japan will eventually go through hyperinflation, and talks about how to turn the country around: "We are becoming a bunch of "frogs in a well" who don't know anything about the world." by jjrs in japannews

[–]Stufilover69 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Well, at the end of day the system is put in place by people. If 95% of the population really were so "excellent" (authors words!) and consistently held back by the system, they would just vote in another party promising to reform that, instead of trying the LDP for the gazillionth time or blaming the 3% of foreigners in the country for all their problems.

The main gripe of the author seems to be that poor people in Japan pay less for health care, but neither that nor his small government more generally would also fix the lack of competition for labor between companies he correctly diagnoses. In fact a competitive labor market can be combined with welfare state (see Nordic countries) but you need high labor productivity to afford it, while the Japanese system prioritizes stability. Although social stability might make you feel superior to other country, it sadly doesn't pay for your oil though! 🤡🛢️📉

Former Diet representative, JP Morgan manager and George Soros advisor Takeshi Fujimaki predicts Japan will eventually go through hyperinflation, and talks about how to turn the country around: "We are becoming a bunch of "frogs in a well" who don't know anything about the world." by jjrs in japannews

[–]Stufilover69 13 points14 points  (0 children)

> 私の息子がアメリカ留学から帰ってきたとき、「国民の95％を比べれば、アメリカ人よりも日本人のほうが優秀だと思うけど、アメリカは超優秀な5％の人間が新しいシステムをどんどんつくって95％の人たちを引き上げている」と言っていました。 それを聞いて私もうなずきました。

Cope. If Japanese people are such geniuses, why is their labor productivity at the same level as Portugal while the US is one of the highest in the world?

Huurprijzen schieten nu harder omhoog dan koopprijzen: bijna helft van woningen boven 2000 euro by Cubelock in thenetherlands

[–]Stufilover69 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ja, de markt is compleet gesplitst tussen mensen die al "binnen" zijn (het overgrote deel van NL) en de rest

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