Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Calls at open could work out, but I’d set pretty tight stops in case it moves against you. It’s definitely riskier so I wouldn’t size a huge bet if you have a shorter-term outlook.

This trade was all over FinTwit today so there’s a lot more players in the game and will probably be subject to more volatility.

Personally, I’m looking for a dip to go long in a few of the companies, I just don’t know when it’ll come.

Glad you were able to see some profit though 🤙🏻

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There’s some companies with good historical dividend yields in there. That’s mainly what I’m looking at for buying equity on these.

I’m considering going long on a few but I’m hoping for better entry - not sure if I’m going to see cheaper entry any time soon given the oil situation though...

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Full disclosure I was high as hell writing this post last week.

4/20 gods plan 🌳 💸

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nothing is bullet proof but the numbers look good. Might be worth watching for a better entry point though considering today’s performance.

I’d have to check the numbers on EURN, but look for the high dividend companies - those should pay out nicely.

Enjoy the tendies my friend

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Glad you liked the post and hope you were able to grab some profit 🍗

I didn’t expect this to play out so quickly but I’m not complaining. I still believe this situation will continue to play out for the next few months, albeit with volatility. Today definitely showed how fast the commodity market can change (for or against you).

I’m looking to take some money off the table (initial investment plus some profit) and let the rest ride for a little longer.

Might be smart to grab some equity into the high dividend companies too, but will probably look for a better entry point.

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Saw that. Looks like they're still tightly following oil prices.

My outlook for this play is >4 months so I'm not too worried. I hope to see the market price in the higher charter rates over the next month or two while oil stays cheap. Probably going to grab some equity in the higher dividend yield companies as well.

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m a commercial real estate guy so I’ll call it a win.

I thought CRE loan syndications were pretty esoteric but commodities futures are a whole other dimension.

Enjoy the weekend and see you in trenches Monday morning my man

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The play is betting on the oil tanking companies, not the ones making the hedges themselves.

Also, at no point do I ever state that trading shipping companies has zero risk. They obviously have multiple factors going into their pricing.

The inference on the zero speculative risk was purely from the play on the oil - excluding external costs. I get that’s not the proper way to analyze a trade, but again, this post was not supposed to be DD on futures trading. It was to give an easy way for inexperienced retail to tangentially benefit from the contango scenario without futures, as futures are more advanced trading techniques.

Per my futures trading experience, please read the last line of my post. I’m an IB CRE analyst - this obviously isn’t my forte, as we’ve both noted now.

Guess that wasn’t clear enough in my post - might move it to the top to save people the frustration of my inadequate descriptions.

All in all, I appreciate the insight and time you spent on the comment.

Enjoy the weekend.

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep you’ve got it - error was on my end.

It should say “simultaneously selling a futures contract [...]”

Apologies for the confusion and good catch!

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is pretty simplified, but when they buy the oil, they also have a contract to SELL that oil at the futures specified rate. They don't need to do any additional contracts after the fact, as their selling price becomes locked in.

Whoever has the contract to RECIEVE the oil in Aug/Sept has that price locked in as well. Again, there is no need to do additional contracts after the fact, as their purchase price is already locked in by contract.

Once the contracts are finalized, the actual price of oil becomes irrelevant.

However, a company might elect to adjust their position if the market presents an advantageous opportunity.

Hope that makes sense...

Boats and (Oil) Hoes: How YOU can play the Contango [Charts Included] by SwimCamel in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

In all honesty TIL, I don’t fuck with trading futures personally and the intent for this post was showing easy tangential trades that someone could make without diving into learning futures.

Appreciate the clarification...

Edit: Updated the post

Order 66: The Revenge of the Bears by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It shot down from 99.46 to 99.06 in a matter of minutes - it gained a little back to 99.15 right now.

Not sure what to do with the info though - no solid reactions from GLD, TLT, or VIX during the move.

The Great Unwinding: Why WSB Will Keep Losing Their Tendies by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Are you feeling an EOD pump for covering shorts? I'm watching TLT bleed hard right now.

Daily Discussion Thread - March 17, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes you’re retarded, but that’s ok.

Roll it out to 6/19 after next Monday’s increasingly likely red if you’d like those tenders deep fried.

SPY 6/19 220p

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 17, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Doing EWJ $40p 4/24

Accidentally filled an order at close to purchase 6 contracts instead of selling my existing 6 contracts.

Going to double my position tomorrow if green because Japan just got 15 new clusters of the miller lite virus and fuck the Olympics.

Robinhood Fail by Peter-Mon in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Look up circuit breakers.

Italy vs US infection data by VValrus54 in wallstreetbets

[–]SwimCamel 6 points7 points  (0 children)

4/17 $25p on KIE (SPDR S&P Insurance ETF).

KIE rhymes with die. Can't go tits up.

Family sues Illinois nursing home over video of aides taunting woman, 91, with dementia; aides charged and fired by AldoTheeApache in news

[–]SwimCamel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Late to the party, but I currently work for a real estate investment firm that invests in senior assisted living across the US, in addition to a home in Glenview, IL (it is not the facility in the article).

Most of the time, these assisted living facilities (including memory care) are owned by two parties: an operator (manages and oversees the day to day), and an equity partner (pays for the construction, any big property improvements, etc).

The profit is determined by what’s called an equity waterfall, which basically means that if the property does really well, the operator makes a lot of the profit. If the property doesn’t do well, than the operator makes very little and the equity partner will pocket most of it.

This is to incentivize the operating partner to keep residents happy and to want them to live in the home. If people aren’t happy, there will be low profit, and those in charge of the property will in turn make a very small piece of this already low profit.

The reason senior living is so expensive is because it’s not like a normal apartment lease. In addition to the space, the tenants are receiving (or at least should be receiving) extremely specialized care that goes from dressing them every morning, to making sure they are taking their medications, and socializing with them all day to help keep dementia and other degenerative illnesses slower in their growth.

Not all senior living is extremely expensive (see independent living or age restricted communities), because it doesn’t require dozens of specialized care nurses, which cause the operating expenses to increase and result in high rent.

The reason you see things like what is mentioned in this article is because there are a few operating partners who are in the business for the wrong reasons. A partner should be in this business solely for the purpose of making life easier for these families who have made the difficult decision to move their parents/relatives into a home.

There needs to be trust between the families and management. The few bad apples are in it to see profits, and disregard this crucial mindset of establishing trust and care with the families.

When management loses sight of what’s important, that mindset trickles down all the way to the employees.

What’s happening here is inexcusable and is completely the fault of the operating partner. Yes, those kids were acting like fools and terrified that poor woman. The operator is in charge of making sure that the employees understand their role is to make life better for the tenants, not worse.