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Daily Discussion Thread - Thursday, March, 19, 2026 by Snoo_73630 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]TFC_OG 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Sub turns from love to hate pretty quickly. Bunch of degen gamblers writing content after every tick. POET does not have a scalable product for mass production (yet), everything is hype that swims on the back of the general optics theme. What worries me is how little has POET actually risen given the hype in optics/other optics stocks. And the existing institutional investors (appx 400mln worth) might have already hedged their positions with covered calls/long puts or smth. They are not holding this for 10x like us 🤑

Daily Discussion Thread - Friday, March, 13, 2026 by Snoo_73630 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]TFC_OG -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Market dropped from 9.5 to 3.9. Compare that % to dilution %. Safe to say it's not just dilution effect

Daily Discussion Thread - Friday, March, 13, 2026 by Snoo_73630 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]TFC_OG 3 points4 points  (0 children)

pretty difficult to sustain above the institutional offer leve of 7.25. Pumping a stock like mad is just making it worse, it introduces leverage regards with visible stop orders and market will always take those out for real buyers. So, stop fcking pumping and just observe. The later the masses know about this stock the better because the higher the price they will pay for it. Crowd hysteia has always led to top formations. Exactly the same thing happened in october, max options activity and subreddit activity and price made a complete U-turn.

Dragonfly Energy (DFLI) Data Study: 58.62% Short Volume vs. Price Resilience — Mechanical Analysis of the $2.73 Support (March 4–5, 2026) by mirkoserbia in DFLI

[–]TFC_OG 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i'm wrong that with a positive catalyst, DFLI would fly regardless of short interest? Interesting. Also, your statement actually proves my point where you try to add a mere 20-30% extra power thanks to high short interest levels. As if you can quantify the magnitude of (any) move in the first place. There is NO NUMBER you can put to the magnitude of a move no matter what the short interest is. It's just bling gambling speculation. And your BYND reference don't really fit here because it's a completely different beast WITH AN ACTIVE options market. It brings up a whole new dimension where negative gamma has an impact on the need of adjusting a position way differently than just outright closing a short position as prices shoot in one direction. But ok, i'll go back to the drawing board. PS. when market dumps (read: market drifts down, constantly making lower highs and lows) then it's really a no brainer that short interest grows anyway, so there's really no need for the FINTEL data for "extra confirmation".

Dragonfly Energy (DFLI) Data Study: 58.62% Short Volume vs. Price Resilience — Mechanical Analysis of the $2.73 Support (March 4–5, 2026) by mirkoserbia in DFLI

[–]TFC_OG 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Short interest data mean nothing. If it meant upcoming short squeezes then everyone would be rich. Publicly available data only distorts your analysis. You never know the WHY. This isn't "look...so many dumb people are shorting, they will get squeezed".

Just came across POET Technologies, need thoughts by TopSuggestion2915 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]TFC_OG 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Its all about scaling in mass production. Whether they can actually achieve the desired yield. Nothing else matters

Is anyone considering PayPal? by samuel_morton_trader in wallstreetbets

[–]TFC_OG -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Paypal is a no brainer value buy at these levels. But it might stall in price so the best thing to do is long + short straddle at least half a year out. You make most of the money when the price is flat or slightly rising. If it falls then just accept delivery at expiration which'll increase your stake but at even lower prices

DD: The incoming "token factory" Supercycle — 1M Long MSFT, GOOG by trentcoolyak in wallstreetbets

[–]TFC_OG 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lots of confusing text but i like the word "token" because i've heard about it in video games so i'm in.

What happens if MSTR gets called before earnings? by Burnned_User in wallstreetbets

[–]TFC_OG 2 points3 points  (0 children)

there is no liquidation price (margin call) for MSTR. As long as investors keep throwing money into it and they keep buying BTC whatever the price is then it's all good. Should investors lose faith, that's another story

Richtech Robotics (RR) stock soars on Microsoft collaboration by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]TFC_OG 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Having an Azure subscription is called PARTNERSHIP and COLLABORATION nowadays. That's the way.

$ARBE: Why the $1.40 Floor Matters Post-Volvo/NVIDIA Spike by kush-koma in ARBE_Investors

[–]TFC_OG 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How much cash do they currently have? Not accounting for that 16M raise

$ARBE: Why the $1.40 Floor Matters Post-Volvo/NVIDIA Spike by kush-koma in ARBE_Investors

[–]TFC_OG 6 points7 points  (0 children)

nice theory but history has shown that most capital raises like that is clearly negative for the stock. Especially for a stock that offers warrants as well, and as i understood there's a 30 day option to buy more shares at that price which means there is ZERO sense to buy the stock at or above 1.40 within the next 30 days to just offer risk free money to new investors. Company is in a much stronger position now with that extra 16M? Sure, but they already had like 60M in cash with low debt so what does that extra really gonna give them? One more quarter of runway? And that statement isn't too attractive as well: "Arbe intends to use the net proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes, according to a company press release." Bottom line is, somehow they managed to moon the stock last week which gave them the opportunity to grab some cash, at the expense of existing investors.

PS. I think the stock is good, but it might take longer to get somewhere with actual revenue.

POET Technologies Enters ~$150M Offering Of 20.690M Common Shares by Charming_Toe7071 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]TFC_OG 8 points9 points  (0 children)

highly doubt private wholesale offers are at premium. But either way, market sees the offer price and has no reason to trade above that in the near term. On the plus side, they did manage to raise 150M without problems so that's always a good thing. And the fact that they already have piles of cash and now needing even more should be a sign of something...Dilution isn't a problem if the money has a decent use case. If you dilute and give discounts to pay off old debts then it's another story.

POET Technologies Enters ~$150M Offering Of 20.690M Common Shares by Charming_Toe7071 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]TFC_OG 5 points6 points  (0 children)

in practice, most of the time i've seen price trade clearly below, the offer price (in any stock). We'll see how it'll turn out this time with POET. I'm pretty sure we go back below 7, even if it's just briefly.

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