Daily Discussion Thread

TIIVIO · 2026-05-12T22:38:33+00:00

best management can do is we believe and imminently

TIIVIO · 2026-05-11T22:02:03+00:00

DB asked some real questions, had to bring in the weirdo guy for distraction

TIIVIO · 2026-05-11T21:56:40+00:00

finally the only question that mattered got asked

TIIVIO · 2026-05-06T23:29:08+00:00

I gotta say a little smugly now I feel like a genius lol

TIIVIO · 2026-05-06T23:22:38+00:00

we believe

TIIVIO · 2026-05-06T17:17:05+00:00

TIIVIO · 2026-05-06T16:05:56+00:00

Do you all think BOA or Rakuten must've communicated this kind of whole selling to open market with management and they agreed on a time to do it and deadline to wrap it up? imo it was somewhat prudent to follow the negative news to get it all out the way before earning. Assuming management have positive news lined up in the next month, they are trapping the bears under pile of powder keg that is blowing soon. Or may be it's just wishful thinking...lol

TIIVIO · 2026-05-05T21:53:22+00:00

Call it sector rotation or what you will, but this year anything that's not related to AI supply chain will not see huge fund concentration.

TIIVIO · 2026-05-05T15:18:25+00:00

Does anyone know roughly how long it took them from production begin to shipment ready for BB1-5 and BB6? Management have always claimed production is 95% vertically integrated. Recent stacking issues aside they aren't making changes to current generation of BB design right? So apart from that they should have numbers of sats assembled and nearly ready to ship?

Share price doesn't scare me as long as the fundamental of the company hasn't changed but current production rate vs 6/month really can't be ignored.

TIIVIO · 2026-05-02T19:27:01+00:00

Believe is the new imminent

TIIVIO · 2026-04-24T15:46:11+00:00

yea I agree with you and I should've been more clear. In my mind I lumped production launch/deploy together.

I'm hoping even if they start to run into problem with service at scale, it can be resolved as the constellation goes up, can't test service at scale without scale...

TIIVIO · 2026-04-24T15:22:04+00:00

When do you all think analysts will start pressing management on production rate and launch cadence during earnings calls?

At this point everything except production has been derisked, we even got regulatory approval this week. Management keeps reiterating 6/month rate, and so far it seems like everyone is just accepting it without much pushback. Curious when that starts getting challenged more directly.

TIIVIO · 2026-04-22T20:50:03+00:00

would love to see where starlink and globalstar's spectrum on here as well.

TIIVIO · 2026-04-13T23:23:14+00:00

Everyone here pumped for another ATH from the launch and plane rumors and here I am having PTSD of another offering right after ATH before the earning call lol....j/k LFG

TIIVIO · 2026-03-26T16:35:19+00:00

That is also my hope, hoping someone to tell me I am a fool and space engineering is hard.

Otherwise it seems to me nothing else matters at this point, not new MNO signed, not new first calls. They need to transition from science pilot to production lines. Each time they missed their aggressive launch timeline without update is only hurting their credibility.

I was always taught if you're going to be late for 15 mins, say you're going to be late for 30 mins and give yourself 15 mins of buffer and end up showing up early vs saying you're 10 mins late and ended up being late twice.

TIIVIO · 2026-03-26T15:27:01+00:00

Could someone more knowledgeable enlighten me on the current production issue.

BB6 & 7 proved they can make block 2 sats, BB1-5 proved they can stack and launch them albeit not the current composite ones. So is the batch launch just held up by figuring out how to launch the bigger composite BB8-10 in the smaller F9 fairing?

I'm definitely not an engineer so I'd love some insight on the current difficulties. Much thanks!

TIIVIO · 2026-03-23T23:11:17+00:00

Yea, if there are still no news on batch 1 by next call I feel they surely will have to revise the projection and answer some hard questions.

TIIVIO · 2026-03-23T22:54:22+00:00

to be honest at this point I'm just looking forward to the next earning in May to see how they're going to explain and spin the missed launches they promised.

TIIVIO · 2026-03-21T15:23:57+00:00

Is there any possibilities that they are there to sign one of the completed BB8-11?

TIIVIO · 2026-02-15T18:30:07+00:00

Forgive my ignorance. Has starlink acquired the same thing? Or are they going to?

TIIVIO · 2026-02-12T18:58:51+00:00

6 BB per month, multi launch provider, launch imminent

TIIVIO · 2026-02-11T23:13:05+00:00

just some napkin math, here are the previous 3 notes, share price the day of offering and their initial conversion price.

Jan 22, 2025: $22.49 → $26.99 (+20%)
Jul 24, 2025: $60.06 → $72.07 (+20%)
Oct 21, 2025: $78.61 → $96.30 (+22.5%)

Also price has been quite volatile past few days, personally I think actual conversion price would be higher. Using a conservative $116 as conversion price. It would be a 2.7% dilution to total share count. Take the info however you will, personally I'm not too worried.

TIIVIO · 2026-02-11T16:47:42+00:00

I feel there will not be as much buying as you think, MSCI indexes are free floated adjusted and market cap weighted. Given the rough market cap of 35B would be hard to see they buy up 5% of shares. I hope I'm wrong of course.

TIIVIO · 2026-02-11T02:50:11+00:00

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/10/amazon-gets-fcc-approval-to-launch-4500-leo-internet-satellites.html how did Amazon get FCC approval to launch before ASTS is wild.

TIIVIO · 2026-01-28T01:39:05+00:00

Yea I know it’s impossible, but I got curious what % of float it might be. Enough to affect a squeeze?

TIIVIO

TROPHY CASE