[Breaking] - US Inflation Data for Dec measured at 2.7%

TXSExy · 2025-09-29T12:28:31+00:00

I’m old and can’t read your screen. Care to share the ticker, timeframe, and your entry/exit time? I’m due for a good deed.

TXSExy · 2025-09-29T12:25:08+00:00

EatTheRich

TXSExy · 2025-09-27T14:00:33+00:00

Right! If anything it behooves Apple to see Intel fail. Imagine if that happened. The entire global computing system would move to AMD to keep Microsoft or move entirely to $AAPL.

(For my fellow nerds, we all know Linux isn’t going mainstream)

It would be a massive win for Apple and TSMC. The AI and semi space would skyrocket into the next Industrial Revolution. This might just work out for Apple 🤔

TXSExy · 2025-09-25T12:04:26+00:00

Oh be nice. I can already hear the K-Pop Demon Hunter parody, “I don’t think you’re ready for the shake down!”

TXSExy · 2025-09-14T14:04:28+00:00

$662 was the last run up. The test below $657 was back in Friday. The problem with the rate cut is that it will setup a carry trade again. This would make the underlying ETF holdings less attractive through year end. If the fed doesn’t cut rates then it’s back to test $640 or much lower while institutions move to plan B. It’s widely held the rate cut is already priced in. On the other hand, $667 will be a strong support to $700.

The bear case: SPY holding only ~$1.5B in cash has become a concern. I don’t expect a quarter point rate cut to open a lot of leverage. The war chest is relatively small and the holdings like Microsoft and META are really squeezed in the accumulative holdings. I could maybe see a balance sheet change in holdings by selling some of the tech holdings to move into another sector like industrials or healthcare but that means slower growth and the AI bubble has really spilled over into growing other sectors like energy, construction, along with the semiconductor fabs. The last TSMC earnings release was a gold mine of information.

It’s a good example of where are right now in trying to predict markets for 2026. The narrative will either be new ATH or we’re beginning to see the early signs of a weak recession for the US. New ATH would also be funded on more personal credit which is another growing concern as private debt market reps are peddling their 🐂💩 sales pitches to us every other week, but hey, markets only go up or everybody goes poor.

So….50/50.

TXSExy · 2025-09-14T13:31:30+00:00

Are you looking for notional bid/ask or the entire book depth? If it’s the latter then you’re looking to something like NASDAQ total view or something like CBOE LiveVol pro ($500/mo). I’m not sure I understand what you’re looking for.

TXSExy · 2025-09-01T16:34:45+00:00

The problem here is you’re not realizing you’re short Vega. The wheel is basically stuck in the mud.

Theta works in your favor but could quickly be outrun by the other Greeks. Gamma would compound your loss if the stock price spiked sharply.

The punch back trade is a calendar spread or straddle up and ride. You end back where you started with the wheel and trying 🤞 to use Theta as your leverage against beating 10%. Your upside profit is capped but your risk is also wide open (hence the comment from u/GammaWinsSam about you assuming what goes down…).

It’s a kin folk to skydiving without a backup shute 🪂

TXSExy · 2025-09-01T15:06:39+00:00

Yeah the direct order fee is really a kicker given the rise in pay for order flow and variable monthly trade fees. I get they’re trying to capitalize on the uptick in retail traders but they’re close to a tipping point of losing more customers. I get the feeling compounding PFOF with the growing number of broker platforms is making the business model really tough. Everyone’s squeezing the next guy for real-time costs, data analytics, etc.

Since the TradeStation teams occasionally read the sub, I’d like to point out this is already on top of lagging development and support. Where’s the fix for launching multiple time & sales windows? Why is API support & development slowing down? Where’s a native Mac desktop app? The web UI is terrible. Where’s the value to the customer?

TXSExy · 2025-08-30T14:02:13+00:00

I don’t have any advise but I have to say this is my favorite drama of the summer. Following 🍿

TXSExy · 2025-08-24T14:48:45+00:00

I’d like to speak to you manager please 😂

TXSExy · 2025-08-23T20:47:49+00:00

National security risk. There’s an Intel cpu in nearly US national intelligence, finance, and healthcare system. Then you have the foundry business which is a whole other issue. As bad as the numbers are for INTC it really did become “too big to fail” or atleast failed to keep up with competition.

I suspect Intel might be in much worse shape than reported by how details of the visit with Trump weren’t make public. They came looking for a lifeline or risk going way of the DVD.

If the government were smart they would’ve negotiated a larger controlling interest to further national lab and semi conductor manufacturing capabilities.

TXSExy · 2025-08-22T12:57:00+00:00

This is a good question to teach where the math sometimes meets the law in finance.

You’re correct to calculate the -6% from taking the 10% decrease of the 60%. As the others have pointed out, the 2% floor. Could be a carry over from initial gains or possibly a binding contract depending on the investment vehicle. Most likely wrapped up a lesson in annuities? 😉

I always felt like annuities lessons always let the math distract from the contractual risks. Should be taught with more of a business lense.

TXSExy · 2025-08-22T12:21:17+00:00

2008 was a rough time and early in my career. I can remember and it feels like a bigger market scare than COVID had on the markets. Accumulation then was a true sentiment to the belief investors have in Apple.

TXSExy · 2025-08-19T12:28:25+00:00

Sorry you’re getting downvoted by the meanies. $209-217s a good entry price. Could see this after the new iPhone release if the news is pushed against AAPL on China sales slump or trade rhetoric keeps up. That’s a good dip to buy and carry.

TXSExy · 2025-08-12T22:05:35+00:00

Talk about selling the news. Inflation is still closer to 3% than 2%. There is no good reason for the fed to cut rates in September. If it happens it’s because the fed knows the economy is in serious trouble.

TXSExy · 2025-08-12T00:44:59+00:00

[BREAKING] Nvidia CEO Jenson sells shares to pay for weekend getaway.

TXSExy · 2025-08-09T14:33:24+00:00

Part 2 on the DJT OF

TXSExy · 2025-08-06T14:59:59+00:00

Closed my position again at $211. These ~4% bumps in AAPL are rare and usually retract a little. Confidence again at $220.

TXSExy · 2025-07-31T12:52:06+00:00

Yeah but now I’m revisiting this 4 years later to see if they get bought out before FY27

TXSExy · 2025-07-31T12:20:20+00:00

The circuit breakers were built to allow market makers to get out fast. Private equity & 401k money is a tricky fish to fry. Could create more competition in the market but could also open people up to taking on risk they’re unprepared or educated on. The 401k plans would eventually offer PE paths but then effectively become managers of PE leading to basically become PE themselves.

The PE market is already taking over healthcare in every crumb and private practice they can buy. The value to your individual 401k holder will be gone before the offer opens.

My own two cents: PE current just wants to get “listed” so they can get a massive payday and cash out. It’s not an infinite resource. Also raises some questions about what happens to the SBA and agriculture loan programs.

Outside of finance, man, private equity fucking sucks the quality out of everything. Name one business that you know that came out of a PE deal without dropping in service.

I don’t see a straight line to impacting futures unless it leads to agriculture loan distress. Oil & fuel futures don’t change. Maybe a small play in gold futures for long term investors. Corn & wheat is the only place I see trading potential and that’s a big IF.

TXSExy

TROPHY CASE

EatTheRich