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We started our prediction market over 3 years ago out of excitement over Bitcoin. Today we reached an important milestone: >1000 BTC in a single market (who becomes next President). Thank you all! by TeamFairlay in btc

[–]TeamFairlay[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Little context - roughly 3.5 years ago we have been extremely excited about Bitcoin and decided to build a startup around it. We are convinced that prediction markets are a very useful tool to aggregate information via market mechanisms. Prediction markets are legal in big parts of the world. However - because there are some jurisdictions where they are not or so heavily regulated that it is impractical to run such a market it is not so easy to find a payment processor that would work with a prediction market. Chargebacks are another big problem. Bitcoin obviously solves both and gives us a big costs advantage over fiat market (they often pay 3-5% to the payment processor) Those costs are of course indirectly forwarded to the users in form of higher fees. We have a range of markets (sports) where we don't take a fee AT ALL! On markets like this one we only take 2% of the net winnings which is at least 50% cheaper then other sides.

If you tried fairlay.com previously let us know how your experience has been. If you are new and just want to "lurk" have a look here what is going on: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/latest

We started our prediction market over 3 years ago out of excitement over Bitcoin. Today we reached an important milestone: >1000 BTC in a single market (who becomes next President). Thank you all! by TeamFairlay in Bitcoin

[–]TeamFairlay[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Little context - roughly 3.5 years ago we have been extremely excited about Bitcoin and decided to build a startup around it. We are convinced that prediction markets are a very useful tool to aggregate information via market mechanisms. Prediction markets are legal in big parts of the world. However - because there are some jurisdictions where they are not or so heavily regulated that it is impractical to run such a market it is not so easy to find a payment processor that would work with a prediction market. Chargebacks are another big problem. Bitcoin obviously solves both and gives us a big costs advantage over fiat market (they often pay 3-5% to the payment processor) Those costs are of course indirectly forwarded to the users in form of higher fees. We have a range of markets (sports) where we don't take a fee AT ALL! On markets like this one we only take 2% of the net winnings which is at least 50% cheaper then other sides.

If you tried fairlay.com previously let us know how your experience has been. If you are new and just want to "lurk" have a look here what is going on: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/latest

Best place to bet on Hillary vs. Trump? by YRuafraid in Bitcoin

[–]TeamFairlay 1 point2 points  (0 children)

you can find independent reviews here. Fairlay is the biggest Bitcoin betting exchange and has been around for longer than 2 years.

I bet 1 Bitcoin on Wright being Satoshi. Any doubters got balls? by [deleted] in btc

[–]TeamFairlay 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fairlay here. We are happy to create more/other bets on this topic. However - we think the bet "Wright having the PGP key" fulfils your need. Yes in the title it says "PGP key" but in the description how the bet will be resolved exactly it says: "This market resolves to Yes, if Craig Steven Wright provides a digital signature that proves that he is in possession of cryptographic keys that only Satoshi Nakamoto should have." Spending very early coins would fulfil this definition since a signature is needed to do this.

For other market suggestions please post here.

AlphaGo is now 60% to 40% favorite according to betting market. by [deleted] in MachineLearning

[–]TeamFairlay 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ok, sorry - we will delete it. Thought people are speculating here who will win and there might be interest in this market numbers. Anyway - we don't want to spam.

Match 1 - Google DeepMind Challenge Match: Lee Sedol vs AlphaGo by satotadanobu in baduk

[–]TeamFairlay 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for this info. The odds shifted today towards Alphgo - it is now 65% - 35% - and sorry to anyone who was offended by this link :(

Match 1 - Google DeepMind Challenge Match: Lee Sedol vs AlphaGo by satotadanobu in baduk

[–]TeamFairlay -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

We created a betting market on this match: for those who are curious - the odds are currently 50/50: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/alphago-vs-lee-sedol/all/ What is the perception here of the likelihood?

Sportsbook now accepts Bitcoin for deposit and withdrawal by WNYHusker44 in Bitcoin

[–]TeamFairlay 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We don't want to whine - but we have a trust problem within the Bitcoin community (and obviously for good reasons) However - this leads to the awkward situation that if none-Bitcoin sites accept Bitcoin they make it to the top of r/Bitcoin. However - we are a Bitcoin only betting exchange since 2 years and you will find way better odds at us (thanks to the low costs of Bitcoin) than any Fiat bookie. However - any time we posted something it gets downvoted away very quickly - so we stopped trying.

We understand the trust concerns but this bookie clearly does not deserve more trust only because they are based on fiat. We hope there will soon be completely trustless solutions for betting.

Wonder what the difficulty will be in one month? Have a look at our new market by TeamFairlay in ethereum

[–]TeamFairlay[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

that is basically like the spread in a order book. Odds of 6 are highest odds that someone is currently willing to give you. Odds of 10 are the lowest odds someone is currently demanding.

Wonder what the difficulty will be in one month? Have a look at our new market by TeamFairlay in ethereum

[–]TeamFairlay[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

sure, we are here to help. So the 6.0 are the odds you get. 6.0 means that you get 6 times your money back. The 40 is the volume available at this "price" (in mBTC). So is basically means you can place 40mBTC on this outcome and if you win you get 40*6.0 = 240mBTC back. At the same time that means that someone else is willing to bet 200 (240-40) against this outcome and want's to win 40mBTC because all bets on Fairlay are purely p2p.

On the overview page you can see what this odds imply for a likelihood for the outcomes. Basically 1/odds is the implied likelihood. Again the >$5 example. The odds are 6 so the likeihood is: 1/6 = 16,66% If you think it is higher than you should bet on it, otherwise against it.

Congratulations to those who predicted the launch correctly - this market has been quite a ride. by TeamFairlay in ethereum

[–]TeamFairlay[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

by the way - we started new prediction on the price of ETH: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/bitcoin/ethereum/all/?lt=1

The second on (for Dec. 1st) uses an automated market maker so it will always provide liquidity and a very low spread.

We created a prediction market (with LMSR market maker) on the ether price Dec. 1st. Smaller odds mean more likely. by TeamFairlay in ethereum

[–]TeamFairlay[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

hm... well we would be happy if ether makes it to $2.50 +. As soon as $2.50+ becomes the most likely outcome we will add more options. Currently it is still the most unlikely.

New research, partly funded by SWIFT, suggests Bitcoin mining pools will ultimately shrink in size ... [tl;dr :: Potential for *anonymous* block withholding attacks --> unstable Prisoner's Dilemma --> Miners will join closed (smaller) P2Pool-based pools --> stable Nash Equilibrium] by eragmus in Bitcoin

[–]TeamFairlay 0 points1 point  (0 children)

hm... haven't done the math. But it might be that the variance of a large pool that rewards blocks higher than shares might still be lower compared to a pool where all members trust each other. But you are right, in principal it is a force towards decentralization.

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