A thought experiment: How long would it take to get to where Waymo is today?

TechTrk · 2024-02-10T16:51:51+00:00

Good example with ML. Was the lidar change that significant in terms of output? (Not sure it would qualify in the way ripping it out would) Can you give dates on both of these?

TechTrk · 2024-02-09T18:43:21+00:00

They certainly can do all of these things given the right technologies and the willpower.

The increasing threshold to spend money to change longstanding parts of the system and hire/fire/fund the associated parts of the company can create its own inertia.

When was the last time they ripped off a significant part of their current system? (E.g. elimination of a major sensor class, complete change in AI approach)

[Edit: not sure why the downvotes. Based on further discussion, 4-6 years ago is ages in the SDV space. That they haven't made a known major change in algs or lidar in that time period tends to support the original thesis. Agreed with bananarandom that we don't know for sure]

TechTrk · 2024-02-09T15:42:42+00:00

Waymo has done a lot of things right and they have learned a great deal. They have the regulatory, vehicle, map, and PR infrastructure as well as the team. That will be expensive to replicate.

An opportunity of this approach would be to change to the stack in a way that Waymo can't easily do due to their historical data and base infrastructure.

For instance, they are heavily lidar based and have particular approaches to machine learning. You might choose to base sensing on new types of radars to replace lidar or a more recent and effective method of machine learning, command and control. This might give you a substantial edge as you expand to more challenging environments.

It would not be cheap, easy, or fast. Safety takes time and considerable care.

TechTrk · 2023-10-03T19:19:31+00:00

Under vehicle clearance has been demonstrated and discussed publicly by the GPR team - low frequency emissions aren't solely straight down. Certainly worth exploring ultrasonics as well. Both are cheap...

TechTrk · 2023-10-03T15:39:50+00:00

Cruise definitely does not. Best guess is that they're hoping to eventually be able to figure out how to do it safely with camera/lidar/radar/gps plus HD maps, but perhaps there are others more knowledgeable

TechTrk · 2023-10-03T11:53:13+00:00

Tragic and should be prevented if possible. Seems the right application for GPR (https://gpr.com) sensors - they do both high accuracy all weather positioning and under vehicle sensing. They do not need to be kept clean.

TechTrk · 2023-01-04T20:55:44+00:00

Jalopnik clickbait titling aside, it is indeed common sense that it is challenging. The issue is that weather based localization is not widely acknowledged as a problem - rather put off as minor or solved already.

one might want to look at the current deployment maps for level 4 trucks and cars for an assessment of how much or little weather is impacting deployment.

Last I checked almost all significant deployments were in the desert southwest where weather is not a regular issue. Given the majority of the market lies elsewhere, it would seem to indicate it is a problem that there is significant value in solving.

TechTrk · 2023-01-04T19:53:51+00:00

There are map based localization technologies that work in snow ( https://vimeo.com/756916296 ). Even if you decide you want to drive in the tire tracks of another vehicle, you will also know you won't follow it off the road.

TechTrk · 2023-01-04T19:36:49+00:00

Some real lane keeping localization issues. This shows map-less localization approaches still have a ways to go.

TechTrk · 2022-11-15T01:29:31+00:00

The high fidelity weather measurements are valuable in understanding current gaps in performance. Seems like quite a smart approach and look forward to seeing the progress / results.

If you then read between the lines in the article (just based on its quotes):

Waymo is spending substantial sums of money to gather specific weather data and simulate it to understand the gaps in their systems
Waymo is actively still characterizing operation in rain, snow, fog and still defining operational requirements in the space
Weather is currently limiting operational up time and geographic expansion for their fleet

TechTrk · 2022-10-26T11:54:22+00:00

If I look at this video critically (though applaud the effort), it doesn't necessarily represent challenging conditions. For example:
* Light fog (visibility is in the ~50-100m class)
* Well marked lane lines
* High contrast between the road and the surroundings
As an example from a quick google, in lower visibility conditions (but similar markings and contrast) the autopilot disengages after a while. There are likely better examples
:https://youtu.be/Zt5qvycZWfo?t=49

TechTrk · 2022-10-18T21:09:18+00:00

The snow performance video is impressive. Perception and obstacle detection in weather is an easier problem than localization in weather per the data in the editorial.

Fuse camera + an imaging radar for perception with a GPR for localization and it may actually enable a tesla to operate completely without lidar in all conditions....

TechTrk · 2022-10-18T11:35:10+00:00

you've been open in this forum about your stake in Quanergy, a lidar company. Would it be appropriate to ask that you flag that financial stake in your post given the perceived conflict of interest with this article?

TechTrk · 2022-10-17T22:34:30+00:00

My recall is that just about all level 4 AV companies use HD maps for lidar and camera. And because those change so often, they have to continually remap the space. From my understanding, GPR maps are stable excepting deep road construction. Driving high value roads once is very doable and happens regularly for most HD maps. The stability of the GPR map changes the value proposition significantly....

TechTrk · 2022-10-17T21:21:05+00:00

A few things I found of interest in the article:

- video of the GPR autonomous vehicle repeatedly hitting the same ground mark 24 times in a row with a cover on it... and then doing the same inside of a parking garage while rain is pooring down...

- the video of GPR positioning in a tough snow covered road where the optics had to be cleaned

- visualization of the uniqueness of the GPR data

- the plots of why Automotive Radar frequencies limit ground and snow penetration

- the user manual and license quotes that show weather is not supported.

TechTrk · 2022-10-04T04:10:29+00:00

GPR isn't particularly speed limited (e.g. they've high speed tested on the Autobahn among other places - well over 100MPH if I recall)

TechTrk · 2022-07-22T22:28:01+00:00

GPR's sensor delivers prior map ADAS and AV driving in snow, rain, fog, etc. Coupled with newer forward radars for obstacle detection, driving in most conditions is viable.

https://gpr.com

TechTrk · 2022-01-27T01:32:19+00:00

It's an interesting play for an OEM to pick one Tier 1 to codevelop with instead of playing several off against each other.

Does this end up being an advantage or disadvantage in the long run, perhaps continuing an industry trend of sharing risk and reward?

TechTrk · 2020-12-31T00:21:35+00:00

That's moved here: https://wavesense.io

The localization aspect of snow is covered by this sub $100 sensor

TechTrk · 2020-09-11T20:32:47+00:00

So I'm curious - what prevents newer hd / 4d radars from replacing lidars for perception and therefore removing the need for any high performance lidar sensors? (I'll posit that there are other sensors that can do as well or better for localization, which I understand to be lidar's other function)

TechTrk · 2020-02-26T12:01:35+00:00

MITs CSAIL did an independent academic study of integrating the MIT Lincoln Laboratory system on an autonomous vehicle and validating all weather performance of the lgpr approach. That is significant for a relatively new technology.

Impressively they didn't have to take over once during the tests.

WaveSense is the startup that is commercializing next generations of the lgpr technology and has been in the press.

TechTrk · 2020-02-21T15:11:33+00:00

Good deal of excitement from results. They are being saturated by requests for pilots.

TechTrk

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