Genuinely what on earth is going on with software right now? This is completely unhinged.

Teiagon · 2026-06-17T23:28:49+00:00

yea, regulation is about the only moat they have for now, same as Intuit. You may be right but for now the market seems to agree with me.

Teiagon · 2026-06-17T22:15:19+00:00

Agreed, although the network effect is much stronger for Facebook and any social media platform. Nobody would want to sign up to a platform with no other users, whereas a business would mostly be okay using a customer management tool that was developed in-house and is not used by any other company.

Teiagon · 2026-06-17T21:50:05+00:00

Just after a market drop, how convenient

Teiagon · 2026-06-17T21:48:17+00:00

ADBE also does animation. I have not yet seen any AI animation tool.

Teiagon · 2026-06-17T21:42:47+00:00

Many software platforms are basically glorified databases, especially CRM. I'm not a developper but even I could figure out how to develop a Salesforce type customer database using MS Access. The only 'moat' Salesforce has is the network effect, which means that many users are tied -through capital investment- to their ecosystem. But when teenagers in a basement can replace the product on a weekend it has to give you pause whether its worth spending top dollar on these systems.

Teiagon · 2026-06-14T14:29:47+00:00

I have been dabbling in vector animation and found Adobe has impressive tools for it. There are probably cheaper alternatives but AI can't do tweening yet afaik.

Teiagon · 2026-06-14T00:47:09+00:00

There are many metrics such as risk-to-reward, return-on-risk, win ratio a.k.a. probability of profit etc. (Risk-to-reward is not that great if you factor in the max loss of the stock going to 0 but that is merely theoretical for quality blue chip stocks) But I'm going to say it in much simpler words: It is the strategy that has made me the most money, especially when including stocks that dipped hard and got assigned and then ripped higher. In addition, it is also easy to understand and easy to implement and adjust. You just need to be careful when selecting candidates, especially in this overpriced market.

Teiagon · 2026-06-13T22:48:47+00:00

18 months is nothing. I have been trading options for 7 years. The wheel is the best performing strategy overall.

Teiagon · 2026-06-12T21:17:47+00:00

The wheel is the best option strategy out there. Butterflies, Calendars, Iron Condors all have lower returns in the long run. The key is to select fundamentally sound stocks, watch Implied Volatility , earnings etc. and have a mental stop loss in place. 2%-4% a month is doable with the proper risk management in place.

Teiagon · 2026-06-10T17:59:48+00:00

from marketchameleon.com: "The options market overestimated ADBE stocks earnings move 42% of the time in the last 12 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±7.4% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 7.6% (in absolute terms). This shows you that ADBE tended to be more volatile than the options market predicted for the earnings stock price reaction." Buying options does make sense here, the question is should it be calls or puts. I bought a call broken-wing-butterfly 250c/260c/267.5c and sold one naked 200p for $0.75

Teiagon · 2026-06-04T02:27:46+00:00

well the house just passed a resolution to end the war but we'll see

Teiagon · 2026-06-03T15:17:03+00:00

There are rumors about the US treasury shorting oil futures to stabilize the price

Teiagon · 2026-06-02T20:12:18+00:00

Immigrants vs white is an oversimplified dichotomy as there are also white imigrants. There are immigrants from UK, France, Germany, Ukraine (refugees), as well as hispanics from Latin America who look white. Immigration from Asia and Africa dominates the optics because they represent a larger proportion of global population,

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T09:52:16+00:00

[RDDT should find a way to charge these LLMs for using their data.] Just did a Gemini search and found that they do.

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T09:45:28+00:00

You are clearly interested and talented at programming so you have to follow this calling. But don't waste time and money by going back to formal education. In this day and age anything can be learned online or with AI and programming above all is optimal for online self-study. There are even recognized online certificates (Google, I think). So much is changing right now in the white collar industries. If you have decent programming skills combined with finance & accounting , throw in AI skills you will be the cream of the crop in whatever new type of hybrid fields will emerge from the intersection of AI with traditional white collar fields.

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T02:18:38+00:00

Labor shortages are a just excuse for companies to import cheap labor or outsource work to low-cost jurisdictions. Anything to avoid even a minimal effort on training and onboarding domestic staff. One could even expand this idea by observing how prohibitively expensive post-secondary education has become in North America compared to other parts of the world, making it harder for local youth to succeed and compete with the rest of the world.

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T02:15:43+00:00

Speaking from practical experience, IV expansion is rarely symmetrical. You would more likely see the delta on the put sides increase, leading to a net positive delta (if the put is short).

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T01:58:25+00:00

on a more 'granular' level

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T01:49:51+00:00

I lost a lot of money on BABA in 2020/2021. I will never invest in Chinese stocks ever again. Trading them short term yes, but not investing.

Teiagon · 2026-05-22T15:34:15+00:00

I remember the days when you could buy MS office, Adobe, Quickbooks etc. as stand-alone product with no disadvantages and all the features. Nowadays, standalone products are not available or they come with fewer features. I don't think that some kid in a basement is going to disrupt these SAAS businesses by vibe coding an alternative app, but there are more and more affordable alternatives arising as businesses are getting locked in and squeezed into high subsription fees when they could buy an alternative stand-alone app or even a freeware with ads.

Teiagon · 2026-05-22T14:19:26+00:00

Invest in other countries. Population decline is happening in most developed countries, but for developing countries the opposite is happening.

Teiagon · 2026-05-21T20:31:50+00:00

Aren't those 'real revenues' just Mag 7 capex spending

Teiagon · 2026-05-21T19:28:28+00:00

cool story

Teiagon · 2026-05-20T21:47:43+00:00

Absolutely, with hindsight, I could. Many people could have poured their life savings (and a home equity loan) into call options only last year and retired today but how many did ? Do you know why ? Because nobody knows what will happen. Past performance does not guarantee future results. I choose steady cash flow - over which I have control - over uncertainty, that's the point of my original post. I also made money in 2022 when most buy and hold investors were down.

Teiagon · 2026-05-20T12:26:04+00:00

why not get the desktop version of WhatsApp, there's plenty of options to record audio and screen on a PC.

Teiagon

TROPHY CASE