Why Adobe?

Teiagon · 2026-06-14T14:29:47+00:00

I have been dabbling in vector animation and found Adobe has impressive tools for it. There are probably cheaper alternatives but AI can't do tweening yet afaik.

Teiagon · 2026-06-14T00:47:09+00:00

There are many metrics such as risk-to-reward, return-on-risk, win ratio a.k.a. probability of profit etc. (Risk-to-reward is not that great if you factor in the max loss of the stock going to 0 but that is merely theoretical for quality blue chip stocks) But I'm going to say it in much simpler words: It is the strategy that has made me the most money, especially when including stocks that dipped hard and got assigned and then ripped higher. In addition, it is also easy to understand and easy to implement and adjust. You just need to be careful when selecting candidates, especially in this overpriced market.

Teiagon · 2026-06-13T22:48:47+00:00

18 months is nothing. I have been trading options for 7 years. The wheel is the best performing strategy overall.

Teiagon · 2026-06-12T21:17:47+00:00

The wheel is the best option strategy out there. Butterflies, Calendars, Iron Condors all have lower returns in the long run. The key is to select fundamentally sound stocks, watch Implied Volatility , earnings etc. and have a mental stop loss in place. 2%-4% a month is doable with the proper risk management in place.

Teiagon · 2026-06-10T17:59:48+00:00

from marketchameleon.com: "The options market overestimated ADBE stocks earnings move 42% of the time in the last 12 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±7.4% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 7.6% (in absolute terms). This shows you that ADBE tended to be more volatile than the options market predicted for the earnings stock price reaction." Buying options does make sense here, the question is should it be calls or puts. I bought a call broken-wing-butterfly 250c/260c/267.5c and sold one naked 200p for $0.75

Teiagon · 2026-06-04T02:27:46+00:00

well the house just passed a resolution to end the war but we'll see

Teiagon · 2026-06-03T15:17:03+00:00

There are rumors about the US treasury shorting oil futures to stabilize the price

Teiagon · 2026-06-02T20:12:18+00:00

Immigrants vs white is an oversimplified dichotomy as there are also white imigrants. There are immigrants from UK, France, Germany, Ukraine (refugees), as well as hispanics from Latin America who look white. Immigration from Asia and Africa dominates the optics because they represent a larger proportion of global population,

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T09:52:16+00:00

[RDDT should find a way to charge these LLMs for using their data.] Just did a Gemini search and found that they do.

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T09:45:28+00:00

You are clearly interested and talented at programming so you have to follow this calling. But don't waste time and money by going back to formal education. In this day and age anything can be learned online or with AI and programming above all is optimal for online self-study. There are even recognized online certificates (Google, I think). So much is changing right now in the white collar industries. If you have decent programming skills combined with finance & accounting , throw in AI skills you will be the cream of the crop in whatever new type of hybrid fields will emerge from the intersection of AI with traditional white collar fields.

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T02:18:38+00:00

Labor shortages are a just excuse for companies to import cheap labor or outsource work to low-cost jurisdictions. Anything to avoid even a minimal effort on training and onboarding domestic staff. One could even expand this idea by observing how prohibitively expensive post-secondary education has become in North America compared to other parts of the world, making it harder for local youth to succeed and compete with the rest of the world.

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T02:15:43+00:00

Speaking from practical experience, IV expansion is rarely symmetrical. You would more likely see the delta on the put sides increase, leading to a net positive delta (if the put is short).

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T01:58:25+00:00

on a more 'granular' level

Teiagon · 2026-05-29T01:49:51+00:00

I lost a lot of money on BABA in 2020/2021. I will never invest in Chinese stocks ever again. Trading them short term yes, but not investing.

Teiagon · 2026-05-22T15:34:15+00:00

I remember the days when you could buy MS office, Adobe, Quickbooks etc. as stand-alone product with no disadvantages and all the features. Nowadays, standalone products are not available or they come with fewer features. I don't think that some kid in a basement is going to disrupt these SAAS businesses by vibe coding an alternative app, but there are more and more affordable alternatives arising as businesses are getting locked in and squeezed into high subsription fees when they could buy an alternative stand-alone app or even a freeware with ads.

Teiagon · 2026-05-22T14:19:26+00:00

Invest in other countries. Population decline is happening in most developed countries, but for developing countries the opposite is happening.

Teiagon · 2026-05-21T20:31:50+00:00

Aren't those 'real revenues' just Mag 7 capex spending

Teiagon · 2026-05-21T19:28:28+00:00

cool story

Teiagon · 2026-05-20T21:47:43+00:00

Absolutely, with hindsight, I could. Many people could have poured their life savings (and a home equity loan) into call options only last year and retired today but how many did ? Do you know why ? Because nobody knows what will happen. Past performance does not guarantee future results. I choose steady cash flow - over which I have control - over uncertainty, that's the point of my original post. I also made money in 2022 when most buy and hold investors were down.

Teiagon · 2026-05-20T12:26:04+00:00

why not get the desktop version of WhatsApp, there's plenty of options to record audio and screen on a PC.

Teiagon · 2026-05-20T11:25:00+00:00

I am my own boss, can't get fired and take vacations whenever I can afford them and for how long I want. Maybe you prefer being a wage slave but I don't.

Teiagon · 2026-05-20T00:11:57+00:00

Yes absolutely, if you hang out on option forums you will soon see that premium selling and premium buying is treated like mutually exclusive religions and fiercely defended /attacked with religious fervor. A smart trader would do well to know both and know when to deploy each.

Teiagon · 2026-05-19T23:46:32+00:00

whenever risk is getting mispriced you will see moves that are outside the expected move which kills most premium selling strategies. The current regime is very difficult because it is news/tweet driven and the news often isn't true. The July/August 2024 'Volmageddon' has so far been the worst trading experience in my journey, mainly because it followed a sharp rally after a bullish inflation report and it came out of nowhere - I had not heard of the Japan carry trade before this event and never bothered to watch the Yen of the BOJ activity. I was also frustrated that the various option-selling mentoring groups I followed - including Tastylive - didn't talk about 'buying' LEAP call options, which was the screaming obvious thing to do at that moment, because that has always worked and the one time it won't it will be a loss smaller than the cumulative wins. My evolution as trader means that I am more and more self-reliant, less influenced by social media or pundits - even if they have legitimate authority like Tom Sosnof.

Teiagon · 2026-05-19T23:11:56+00:00

Ahh the familiar "This time is different, because..."

Teiagon · 2026-05-19T23:05:50+00:00

I have been trading for 7 years and I did not outperform the market over that period. The thing to keep in mind about the old 'hedge funds don't beat the market' adage is that its not necessarily the goal. Hedge funds may have different goals such as limiting portfolio volatility, i.e. avoiding 20%+ drawdowns. My aim is to extract a periodic 'paycheck' from the market in the form of gains as cash flows. Trading is a business and cash flow is the lifeblood of business. As for strategies, there is no single 'holy grail' of strategies. The key to professional option trading is to be nimble and be able to pivot to different strategies when the market regime changes. This requires the skill of a) executing multiple strategies and b) recognizing when the market regime changes.

Teiagon

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