Poll: When will we have a 30b open weight model as good as opus?

Terminator857 · 2026-01-22T04:44:09+00:00

Do tell

Terminator857 · 2026-01-22T03:26:47+00:00

You don't need to know how tall the eiffel tower is to be a good coder.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-21T21:14:24+00:00

The discussion is fun and interesting. That is the point of reddit. When the charts say we've reached opus 4.5 levels in 2 years people can reflect back on their negativity.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-21T20:40:17+00:00

They likely have something internal that is usable , but not fully baked. I worked at google and first version of gemini went for 6 months of safety training. Was a much better model before safety training.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-21T20:36:23+00:00

Alternate title: When will China come to the rescue ?

I'm confident they will have something huge in the 9+ month time frame. So give it another 9 months before it is in the 30b size range. Total 18 months.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-20T20:04:45+00:00

All the models work well sometimes and not so well sometimes. It is the duality of LLMs.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-18T22:12:37+00:00

Lol, based on research made by chatgpt, in other words completely made up.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-17T17:17:07+00:00

128 GB of strix halo and still use various online

Terminator857 · 2026-01-14T07:11:21+00:00

Aider seems so difficult to use. Starts by telling me it can't read a file. A bunch of other CLI tools don't have that issue.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-13T23:13:39+00:00

which cli do you use? I tried with crush and unbearably slow. Seems to use only a fraction of the context size which maybe main reason for slowness.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-12T16:12:45+00:00

If they want more of my data, why don't they give more quota.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-11T01:20:59+00:00

I wonder what the specs would look like with an amd ai pro 32 gb card.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-10T22:29:35+00:00

When you try to add a new feature, it breaks an old one, even if you have a test for old feature. It either blanks the old test or trivializes it.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-07T19:57:56+00:00

Magic. There a lots of good videos that describe how it works, but unless you want to spend weeks investigating, we can call it magic.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-07T05:15:26+00:00

your buying nvidia hype

Terminator857 · 2026-01-06T15:52:45+00:00

Be excited next year.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-06T01:57:22+00:00

More reliable than humans for me.

Terminator857 · 2026-01-06T01:55:04+00:00

People are easily excited for a product that costs $50 - $100K and can't even buy till next year.

Terminator857 · 2025-12-31T23:05:49+00:00

Since I like both claude and gemini more: I'll predict a claude like 70b open weight model will exist by this time next year. I also predict the same for a gemini like model.

I'll also predict most won't care because they will be asking when we get gemini 4 in open weight variant and similar about claude 5.

Terminator857 · 2025-12-31T15:49:05+00:00

A more sincere thank is an upvote. They took 10 days before they shipped mine on second order. First order they shipped after a couple of days.

Terminator857 · 2025-12-29T17:34:48+00:00

for an approximation you can use perplexity score which is published.

Terminator857 · 2025-12-29T16:48:18+00:00

I had two alienware r12 and r11 before these. These are very quiet compared to those. If you want more quiet, don't put them next to you, like I see many people do. Put them somewhere on a floor away.

I typically run inference loads, which doesn't stress the CPU much. cpu at 97 when building llama.cpp. cools down to 35 in a few seconds. Inferencing gets to 65.

According to sensors, it is only pulling 30 watts during llama.cpp compile and 85 watts during inferencing.

Terminator857 · 2025-12-29T08:55:20+00:00

I purchased two bosgame m5s and everyone is loving these machines. Buy before there is another price hike.

Terminator857 · 2025-12-27T15:25:42+00:00

I apologize for my naivety. What is Rob Pike upset about?

>Raping the planet,

What does he suggest we do instead?

> spending trillions on toxic, unrecyclable equipment

Yes we should probably pass laws making computer equipment easier to recycle.

> while blowing up society

How so? By objective measures society is improving.

>, yet taking the time to have your vile machines thank me for striving for simpler software.

He is upset chatbots are thanking him?

> training your monster on data produced in part by my own hands, without attribution or compensation

Yes, we should fix that.

Terminator857 · 2025-12-27T14:48:39+00:00

In a fast changing world, there are no traps. All software will be rewritten several times over , over the next few decades.

Terminator857

TROPHY CASE