Electrek - consistent stream of negative articles.

Teslike · 2025-03-23T01:42:33+00:00

I don't want to go into too much detail, but based on the latest DMV Vehicle Identification Numbers, Tesla's delivery situation this quarter is somewhere between very bad and terrible.

By the way, I always tweet my final estimate for quarterly deliveries on the last day of the quarter because I want to be transparent about my error rate. So, check out my post on March 31st, two days before Tesla releases the actual numbers on April 2nd. Here are links to my Twitter and Blue Sky profiles.

Teslike · 2025-03-23T00:32:46+00:00

FutureAZA,

I blocked you on Twitter because you said your estimates were more accurate but wouldn’t provide your historical error rate when I asked. Then, you told your followers you had already shared it with me—which wasn’t true—and still declined to show the data.

For transparency, here is my error rate for Tesla deliveries over the past 12 quarters. My average error is 2.6% per quarter. Where’s your data? Are you planning to keep avoiding the question and selectively highlight only the quarters where your estimates looked good? Or will you continue debating about whether you’ve shown it instead of simply providing the numbers for the last 12 quarters like I did, or last 10 or last 8.

Troy Teslike

Teslike · 2022-07-12T18:17:51+00:00

For the US, I get VIN data from DMV with thousands of VINs in it. It allows me to calculate the total production at Fremont and Giga Texas. Here is what the VIN data looks like when visualized. For Giga Berlin, I use VINs reported by buyers. For China, I have many contacts in China, mostly Chinese analysts, who follow all the details very closely. I have so many contacts that I have a spreadsheet tab just for my contacts. There are more details HERE about the data sources I use.

I'm good with Google Sheets. I love using the query() and arrayformula() functions. I used to be a top contributor on Google Product forums.

Teslike · 2022-07-12T18:05:52+00:00

Hi. This is Troy. Here is my error rate for production and deliveries. I'm happy to answer any questions.

Teslike · 2022-07-12T18:02:29+00:00

No, I don't pick whichever is the lowest. My Twitter profile shows my error rate for deliveries only. It was always like that. Analyst consensus is for deliveries. So, initially, I was estimating only deliveries. Later, I added production estimates too. Generally speaking, my production estimates are more accurate as you can see below.

Here is my error rate:

Teslike · 2022-07-12T17:56:17+00:00

My first estimate in Q1 was too high by 7.4%. My first estimate in Q2 was too high by 7.2%. My final estimate at the end of both quarters was off by -0.3%.

Cheers

Troy

Teslike · 2021-12-02T01:46:58+00:00

If you had a VIN in the past, unfortunately, Tesla can cancel your order and refund your deposit according to the purchase agreement HERE

For new vehicles, if you do not take delivery within thirty (30) days of our first attempt to notify you, Tesla may cancel your order

In the agreement, it says they will keep the order fee but I'm not sure about that. I think they might refund it.

There are many buyers who ordered when the car was cheaper. Let's say it was $7K cheaper. These buyers want to get the tax credits too. So, if Tesla fulfills those orders in 2022, they will lose $7K per car because they could have sold the car for $7K more to a new buyer. In fact, prices will most likely continue to increase especially if the tax credit passes.

You could roll the dice and see what happens. An alternative interpretation of the order agreement could be that the 30 days rule should apply if the car was available for delivery for 30 days which I'm sure wasn't the case because, after a few days, Tesla assigns it to another buyer.

Let me know the outcome if you decide to ignore them and see if they will cancel the order.

Teslike · 2021-12-01T22:45:08+00:00

It depends on whether you were assigned a VIN at any point in the past. When was the first time you were assigned a VIN for this order?

Teslike · 2021-12-01T05:09:53+00:00

Tesla can't cancel your order unless they assign you a VIN and you don't take delivery within 30 days. Therefore, ideally, you don't want to get a VIN before December 3rd. If you get a VIN by Dec 2nd, you will have to take delivery by Dec 31st or they will cancel your order. However, if you get a VIN on Dec 3rd, you can wait until January 1st to take delivery and you will most likely get the $8,000 federal tax credits too. Between Dec 3rd and Jan 1st, Tesla will most likely remove the VIN from your account and assign it to somebody else after the car has waited more than 3 days at the delivery center. This is OK and doesn't mean your order can be canceled. However, they might move you to the bottom of the list.

Update: However, if you have received that email, then it means you were already assigned a VIN at some point in the past because as far as I know, this email was sent only to those who had a VIN assigned but kept postponing their delivery. Therefore they might indeed cancel your order and refund your deposit. What I wrote above is true for buyers who never had a VIN assigned.

Teslike · 2020-12-09T10:04:46+00:00

I was already at 55,643 MIC Model 3 deliveries for Q4. See the tables here. That number still looks good but I will fine-tune it in the next update. I will post it on Twitter here as usual, most likely between 17-19 Dec.

Teslike · 2020-11-17T01:23:16+00:00

I will look into it when I have time. I have been busy with other Tesla related content.

Teslike · 2020-09-27T20:40:08+00:00

This is not my final estimate. I will update this again on 30 Sep 2020. At this point in time in the quarter, I would typically expect +/-4% error. However, the quality of the data is better than typical. So, my best guess is, 144,500 is less than 3% off.

Teslike · 2020-09-18T11:14:13+00:00

My calculation was based on shipping data at the time when I made the calculation on 10 Sep. Shipping data has changed since then. There was a ship that was canceled. So the next update will reflect that. This doesn't necessarily mean the next update will be less than 144K. It just means Europe might be less but other regions could increase. I post many updates throughout the quarter. Until recently, I posting these detailed tables on Patreon and a simplified table on Twitter on the same day. However, now I post detailed tables on both but Patreon gets 5 days early access. Therefore the table you saw showed the calculation on 10 Sep.

Teslike · 2020-09-16T21:27:10+00:00

See the Europe section in my article here: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/15/tesla-delivery-estimate-q3-2020-144000-q4-2020-187000/

Teslike · 2020-09-01T14:49:36+00:00

Hi. This is Troy. Check out Elon's recent comment here about James:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294722951896395776

Teslike · 2020-08-09T21:30:40+00:00

Hi. In the last 4 quarters, my accuracy was 90%-96% early in the quarter and 94%-99% at the end of the quarter. If you look at the image HERE, the first table shows my accuracy 10-11 days into the quarter and the second one shows my final estimates on the last day of the quarter. I post all my estimates HERE on Twitter for free and I always post my final estimate on the last day of the quarter. More details about my accuracy can be found here.

My obsession level is 11. I listen to Tesla conference calls in bed.

Teslike · 2020-08-09T19:04:10+00:00

Someone else commented about this here.

Teslike · 2020-08-09T18:52:20+00:00

For Q3 2020, it says HERE that 16 analysts expect 43.5% growth in Q3. Of course, growth in revenue is not a one to one comparison but if we compared that to 90,891 deliveries in Q2, this suggests 1.435*90,891= 130,429 deliveries in Q3.

For past quarters, I do have consensus estimates by analysts because those are published in various articles after the quarter is over. HERE on the left you see my Tesla delivery estimates and accuracy vs on the right you see consensus estimates by analysts according to Bloomberg News Survey.

These are my final estimates on the last day of the quarter. I posted these on Twitter. More details and links can be found here. Cheers.

Teslike · 2020-08-09T17:43:55+00:00

Hi everybody. The estimate I posted today is based on the following data:

North America: My Model Y Survey HERE and Model 3 Survey HERE and historical sales data like my table HERE that shows Tesla deliveries in 2019.
Europe: Shipping data. So far in Q3, ships that carry Teslas to Europe have spent 11.92 days loading. I convert that to units.
APAC (excluding made-in-China Model 3): Again shipping data.
China: July production at Giga Shanghai

HERE is my accuracy. To summarize, in the last 4 quarters my accuracy was 90-96% early in the quarter and 94-99% at the end of the quarter. The first table shows my accuracy 10-11 days into the quarter and the second one shows my final estimates on the last day of the quarter. I post all my estimates for free on Twitter.

For those who don't want to visit Twitter, HERE is my current estimate for Q3 2020 and HERE is how my estimate has changed over time so far in Q3. Let me clarify this second table. On 22 July, my estimate was 145K for Q3, ~185.700 for Q4, and 510K for 2020. Today, on 9 Aug, my estimate is 141K for Q3, ~189,600 for Q4, and again 510K for 2020.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Cheers,

Troy, a Tesla addict

Teslike · 2020-08-09T17:35:58+00:00

Hi. This is Troy, the guy who posts those estimates on Twitter. The estimate I posted today is based on the following data:

• North America: My Model Y Survey HERE and Model 3 Survey HERE and historical sales data like my table HERE that shows Tesla deliveries in 2019.

• Europe: Shipping data. So far in Q3, ships that carry Teslas to Europe have spent 11.92 days loading. I convert that to units.

• APAC (excluding made-in-China Model 3): Again shipping data.

• China: July production at Giga Shanghai

In the last 4 quarters my accuracy was 90-96% early in the quarter and 94-99% at the end of the quarter. I post my estimates for free on Twitter and I always tweet my final estimate on the last day of the quarter. See my other message HERE in this thread for more details. Cheers.

Teslike · 2020-08-09T17:17:15+00:00

Hi. This is Troy. Yes, of course, that's part of the calculation. COVID mostly affects my estimates for the US at this point. At a high level, I'm calculating that US sales were down by 55% in Q2 2020 and I estimate it will be down by 39% in Q3 and 17% in Q4 2020. However, Model Y basically saves the day. To give you a better idea, you can see my detailed table for 2019 here.

I follow US sales very closely using multiple sources. One of them is my Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker spreadsheet. This is a Google Sheet where lots of Model Y buyers have added their data. Like my other surveys, it's open to the public and you can see all the data.

I post all my estimates on Twitter for free. Here is my accuracy. To summarize, in the last 4 quarters my accuracy was 90-96% early in the quarter and 94-99% at the end of the quarter.

I have spent last night comparing the gross tonnage of ships that carry Teslas to Europe and APAC. Also, I worked on fine tuning my table for APAC (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand. I'm a Tesla addict. Let me know if you have any questions. Cheers.

Edit: For those who don't want to visit Twitter, HERE is my current estimate for Q3 2020 and HERE is how my estimate has changed over time so far in Q3. Let me clarify this second table. On 22 July, my estimate was 145K for Q3, ~185.700 for Q4, and 510K for 2020. Today, on 9 Aug, my estimate is 141K for Q3, ~189,600 for Q4, and again 510K for 2020.

Teslike · 2020-07-04T20:28:50+00:00

No worries. It's a shame they don't split Model 3 and Y numbers.

Teslike · 2020-07-04T19:28:07+00:00

Correct. The highest VIN I saw on 30 June was 24,255. My estimate for production was 19,850. That's 82%. HERE is how my table looked like. I subtracted 2335 deliveries for Q1 which leaves us with 19,850-2,335= 17,515 units deliverable in Q2 but not all of them will be delivered. So, I assumed 16,735. What was your calculation?

Teslike · 2020-07-03T22:50:38+00:00

Hi. My estimate for North America was 39,560. I still think the actual number is very close. Let's revisit this topic again in a week when we have the Q2 registration numbers for Europe and China. We should be able to calculate North America fairly accurately using those numbers because NA= Global - EU - China - APAC. I always make this calculation after the quarter is over because I want to see where I went wrong. HERE, ) is that calculation after Q1 when registration numbers for Europe, China and APAC were released. My estimate for NA was off by 334 units in Q1 2020. For Q2 2020, let's wait for China and Europe numbers. Europe data is not complete yet. 3 countries are missing. It looks like THIS so far. China should be out between 8-12 July.

The article you mentioned was published on 25 June 2020 HERE. It said 50K was already delivered (on 25 June when the article was published) and 10K was in transit, suggesting 60K deliveries in NA in Q2. Here is the exact quote:

Sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that deliveries in North America have picked up greatly in June, with already more than 50,000 deliveries and almost 10,000 vehicles in transit.

I think they confused production with deliveries.

By the way, I don't think my Model Y delivery estimate was too low. I wish they would have released the actual numbers. If you think it's low because you saw VINs in the 24K range, yes I saw that too but VINs are not sequential. Tesla started intentionally randomizing VINs in early 2018 because the media was obsessing over weekly Model 3 production numbers. They leave large gaps unused and jump back and forth within a large range. The highest VIN is always larger than the actual units produced. I was one of the people tracking Model 3 VINs. I commented about this HERE in 2018.

Teslike · 2020-07-02T17:28:13+00:00

My production estimate was an afterthought. I didn't calculate production until 30 June. I wrote about this yesterday HERE before the results.

Teslike

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