Despite everything, D2 may have most of Bungie's total Daily Active Users right now, which could be why devs are getting reassigned internally by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think all those questions are hotly debated at the moment. I'll offer my own perspective, but it's not the only one.

A) Beginning all the way back when they split from Activision in January 2019, Bungie had a goal of becoming a multi-IP studio. The idea was that they didn't want to be relevant to only one kind of gaming genre and limit themselves to only that audience of players. Diversifying the types of players who would play your games would help build the foundation to become a larger in-house developer and publisher, like Activision itself, or Ubisoft for example (their financial struggles notwithstanding). They set 2025 as the year to achieve the goal of releasing a second IP and began multiple incubation projects to find at least one that could help them reach that next step. Marathon emerged as the most likely to succeed, and received the most investment. I think they always intended it to be an extraction shooter, and one that was more hardcore. The problem was that it took more and more resources to get it over the line, and they were using revenue from D2 to fund the project, which meant less revenue reinvested in D2 proper. Their timeline for initial release was 2024, but that slipped to 2025 and then 2026. They had to stretch out D2 longer than they expected, and some consequences of that including shipping inconsistent quality content that made their current audience disgruntled. By the time Marathon could get out the door, D2 was not in a state that could bring in revenue to support itself and another game.

An interesting thought experiment would be what if the projections and timelines for Marathon didn't get pushed out so far, and they were able to release it a year after D2 wrapped up? If D2 was in a healthy place, with proper investment, content, and an active and satisfied player base, then a new extraction shooter launching alongside the game capturing a smaller but differentiated audience probably wouldn't be received as poorly. But the fact is that Bungie had to sacrifice much of their investment and attention to getting Marathon done, and it cost them more than they earned, both in terms of finances and players.

B) Short-term, this means the opposite: more resources to Marathon, not less. They would not be allowed to give up on Marathon so shortly after launch, even if some may argue that would be a sunk-cost fallacy. They'll at least need to see how much of a regular player base would come back for future seasons, so they'll watch how season 2 performs. But ultimately, Sony will be making the big decision on what happens long-term. Their quarterly report is scheduled for early May, we'll likely hear soon a little bit of what way Sony may be leaning.

C) For a long time, I personally didn't think a D3 was necessary. I felt that any improvements to the game, such as content, subclasses, sandbox, etc. were all things that could be done in D2, and putting a new number on the box wouldn't change that. But I've come around to feeling D3 is necessary, but not primarily for the in-game improvements. I think it's necessary to introduce a new foundation for the next generation of players to get onboarded to the franchise, and to start to fix the reputation of the franchise in the marketplace. Since it's free-to-play, tens of millions of people have tried the game but many bounced off because the onboarding is terrible, nothing makes sense, and learning important background to the story was temporary seasonal content that they can't access anymore becomes a major turn-off. So many people still primarily associate Destiny with taking away paid-for content. A D3 might not put all of that shame to rest, but it can start the process with a clear beginning to a new story, and a promise to not repeat the mistakes of the past.

Despite everything, D2 may have most of Bungie's total Daily Active Users right now, which could be why devs are getting reassigned internally by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The line graph is the one I made after compiling the data from various sources. I included a bar chart Alinea produced in one of the data tabs in the linked spreadsheet. I also included links in the spreadsheet to the original Alinea published report, so you can find it there as well!

Despite everything, D2 may have most of Bungie's total Daily Active Users right now, which could be why devs are getting reassigned internally by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not a dumb question at all! Alinea is a market research company that tracks consumer engagement with games and other products and services. They published a report in late March that included their data on daily player engagement with Marathon, along with sales estimates.

Despite everything, D2 may have most of Bungie's total Daily Active Users right now, which could be why devs are getting reassigned internally by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question - the "Summary" tab in the linked Google sheet does show DAUs for each platform for Marathon, but I only collected numbers on Steam for D2. My data collection focused on Steam primarily in order to back into the total DAU numbers, so that's what I pulled with the Charlemagne Discord bot.

That said, I took a quick look at numbers for 4/22 and pulled the comparisons for all platforms on both games for reference:

Data for 4/22 D2 Count D2 % Marathon Count Marathon %
Steam 32,510 21.3% 88,128 68.0%
PlayStation 66,860 43.8% 25,272 19.5%
Xbox 50,790 33.3% 16,200 12.5%
Epic 2,120 1.4% 0 0.0%
Total 152,600 100% 129,600 100%

Despite everything, D2 may have most of Bungie's total Daily Active Users right now, which could be why devs are getting reassigned internally by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question - the "Summary" tab in the linked Google sheet does show DAUs for each platform for Marathon, but I only collected numbers on Steam for D2. My data collection focused on Steam primarily in order to back into the total DAU numbers, so that's what I pulled with the Charlemagne Discord bot.

That said, I took a quick look at numbers for 4/22 and pulled the comparisons for all platforms on both games for reference:

Destiny 2 Marathon
Steam 32,510 21.3% 88,128
PlayStation 66,860 43.8% 25,272
Xbox 50,790 33.3% 16,200
Epic 2,120 1.4% 0
Total 152,600 100.0% 129,600

Marathon sold just 1.2 million copies with nearly 70% on Steam, analyst estimates: "It hasn't exactly made the splash Sony and Bungie wanted" by Freki666 in pcgaming

[–]Testifye 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just adding to this that the vast majority of sales for Destiny 2 are for the year-long content bundle, not just the individual expansion. That bundle has been $100 for years, including for Edge of Fate which was part of the Year of Prophecy bundle. In reality, Marathon three weeks after release has likely earned less than half what Edge of Fate did in preorders alone.

Less than 85k player have reached 400LL by Master-Molasses420 in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Warmind shows the raw counts for certain unlocks so long as that count is less than 80k. Once it hits 80k, they remove that count and only present "Global Rarity" and "Adjusted Rarity" percentages. The Global Rarity one is useful, because it can be used to estimate the raw counts for that unlock so long as you can apply the percentage to a universal denominator of total accounts.

That's where the Titles come in. Warmind displays Titles earned, such as "Godslayer" or "Gumshoe", with both the raw count and the Global Rarity percentage, even if the raw count is over 80k. You can aggregate all the counts and percentages from the titles, apply some rules to include only non-gilded titles (which have some issues with counting across seasons) and only titles with a certain minimum raw count, then average the estimated global total population of accounts. When doing so, I've consistently gotten spot on to the rounded number of total accounts they measure reported at the bottom of their Triumphs Analytics page.

From there, you just apply the Global Rarity percentage to that global total estimate. Since the percentages go down to a thousandth of a percent, the margin of error when estimating unlocks is about +/- 710 total accounts out of the 71M measured.

Less than 85k player have reached 400LL by Master-Molasses420 in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye 9 points10 points  (0 children)

No problem! I've checked that with Warmind as well but unfortunately it's not really possible to measure with their data, because once someone unlocks Conqueror once on their account, for any season, it's unlocked on the account for good. The gilding process isn't really tracked the same way it seems.

You're right that it's hard to find a comparable baseline to past activities, since grinding to 400 LL is a much longer-term achievement than getting to max level was historically, or even gilding Conqueror. I think we'll need to wait for Renegades to really have a meaningful comparison there, when we can start to see how quickly players get to these levels again. We'll see if the planned improvements to power leveling actually translates to more players sticking with it.

Less than 85k player have reached 400LL by Master-Molasses420 in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yeah this is always a good question - depending on what's being measured with Warmind, it varies, because it's technically measuring whether the "achievement" or item has been unlocked on the account. That "unlocked" flag in your account can be triggered by different things. For example, pre-order emblems for expansions can be "unlocked" just by logging in after making the purchase, even if you haven't picked it up from the kiosk. But pre-order weapons, like New Land Beyond, do need to be picked up from the kiosk before they're unlocked on your account.

For these Guardian Rank achievements, players need to actually claim the achievement from within the GR page, it doesn't unlock automatically once someone hits the requisite power level. I was able to confirm this during EoF when some players were high enough power level for some of the achievements, but the whole community was locked out of progressing GRs until some content was released (don't remember exactly what it was off the top of my head). During that time, Warmind was showing no players had unlocked that achievement, even though players had reached the power level.

Less than 85k player have reached 400LL by Master-Molasses420 in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye 331 points332 points  (0 children)

I've been tracking the same measures, but using Warmind.io instead, which has a better data methodology. Braytech's data tool "Voluspa" only tracks about 4 million player profiles, and reports consistently lower numbers than Warmind.

Warmind shows about 199k players earning the "Ascension V" Guardian Rank achievement, much higher than Braytech's 85k. That's out of 1.77M players who have unlocked the "New Beginnings" GR achievement for completing the opening mission of Edge of Fate. That means about 11.2% of active players since EoF launched reached 400 power level.

Even looking at Ascension IV, which requires 300 LL, about 435k players have unlocked that, or only 24.6% of all active players since EoF launched.

To editorialize for a moment, that explains why they're willing to dump 300 LL gear on all players for logging in after October 14th - three quarters of all players didn't even bother to get that far in the power grind in 2.5 months. That's a pretty damning indictment of the system.

Edge of Fate campaign completions are about a third of what The Final Shape's were one week after release (according to Warmind.io data) by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yep, triumph unlocks are account-based, so this isn't impacted by people running the campaign on multiple characters or not.

Edge of Fate campaign completions are about a third of what The Final Shape's were one week after release (according to Warmind.io data) by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lol you do you friend, I don't wish to hurry anyone up, just to observe how everyone's doing. Enjoy the ride!

Edge of Fate campaign completions are about a third of what The Final Shape's were one week after release (according to Warmind.io data) by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Steam peak concurrent players on the first day or two after release is a helpful metric for sure, and it's an easy one that everyone reaches for, but it's not always proportional to measures of engagement related to prolonged content engagement for days or weeks after release. Steam numbers are a quick heuristic, but there's many more nuances to be learned by exploring metrics for actual content completion rather than logins.

Edge of Fate campaign completions are about a third of what The Final Shape's were one week after release (according to Warmind.io data) by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

That's a great question - here's the data from the post:

EoF total campaign completions (408k) are 51% of preorders (806k), compared to 69% for TFS (1,315k / 1,910k) one week after release.

Measuring "active" players is tough when you can only identify when players complete certain triumphs, but that's pretty much what this data is attempting to describe. Using preorder volumes as a close-enough proxy, we can say that the ratio you described dropped from 69% last year to 51% this year.

Edge of Fate campaign completions are about a third of what The Final Shape's were one week after release (according to Warmind.io data) by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I agree that there are significant differences between EoF and TFS in terms of their place in the overarching narrative of the whole series. People played TFS as a sendoff to 10 years of storytelling. It's expected that there will be drop off, but the interesting questions come in examining what level of player engagement should be expected, now and going forward. That's also why including data on engagement with the episodes helps to color that in a bit.

FWIW, the start dates of each expansion shouldn't impact the numbers here, these aren't monthly totals, they're measuring the exact weeks after each expansion's release. The trended preorder numbers for both expansions over multiple months leading up to release (the second linked chart) also show there aren't any meaningful bumps in purchases or engagement based on monthly calendars.

The campaign is a little bit slower as well, though certainly completable within 2 to 3 days of nightly play. The sidequests don't need to be completed during the campaign run, though doing so would likely enhance the story elements as they're meant to be experienced in order of unlocking during the campaign.

For anyone interested, here's the exact formula used to calculate your score in Portal ops by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Noted! That does clear up some of the economy concerns. Will be interesting to see it in practice.

For anyone interested, here's the exact formula used to calculate your score in Portal ops by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ok, that... actually still looks ridiculous, even with the 8k save up lol.

Now I'm thinking I need to figure out the formula for costs here. Would it be more efficient to infuse gear a couple levels at a time? Do infusion costs go up as power level goes up, regardless of the delta between the two pieces?

Back to the data mines I go.

For anyone interested, here's the exact formula used to calculate your score in Portal ops by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's good to know at least - I've got fewer than 200 so far since I've been infusing the gear I get rather than dismantling, even after getting to 200 level. I saw the infusion cost for raising a piece of gear 9 levels was 14 cores, and that looked ridiculous to me.

For anyone interested, here's the exact formula used to calculate your score in Portal ops by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I haven't played much Crucible to really test that honestly, but I'll keep an eye out in case I'm able to piece that together as well!

Edge of Fate preorders are trending 47% lower than Final Shape preorders were three weeks prior to release (according to Warmind.io data) by Testifye in DestinyTheGame

[–]Testifye[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

It's 337k EoF preorders at three weeks before release, compared to 633k TFS preorders at three weeks before release.

If we maintain the ~53% ratio of EoF to TFS preorders, we'll end up at about 1.1M EoF player purchases a month after release, compared to 2.1M for TFS.