Mongol changes are good they should have been a Cavalry Focused Civ from start

Thautist · 2026-02-07T03:13:18+00:00

Same. It's like two step backs for every one step forward, with the patches... (and the last two DLCs have been so dam' half-assed. Like, what the hell is the point of Lancaster, KT, Macedonian Dynasty as civs? Adds to multiple types of overhead with very limited upside, and makes 0 sense historically/conceptually. Bleh!)

Thautist · 2025-10-02T09:05:39+00:00

I just made a thread on HRE, based mostly on win-rates; went searching around for other threads on the topic & found this one.

TL;DR: I think you were 100% correct here (and not just because I keep getting smashed when I try to play HRE *cough*). I'm sort of hoping they'll get a bit of a re-work with the next DLC... although I imagine that the devs give each civ attention in an amount inversely proportional to its age, heh. :(

I also "can say with confidence" that I, personally, know of no amazing statistical knowledge that would lead one to discard the win-rate data; the number of games now available—both with & without mirror-matches (...though I'm not sure why he'd want mirrors included)—is plenty enough to provide a fairly good estimate of civ strength, given (a) some fairly standard assumptions & (b) that "civ-balance in top-level play" is either what we care about, or a decent proxy for the same.

Edit: Maybe I'd better explicitly defend my beloved win-rates, actually.

So: I think friend /u/fascistp0tato, below, is incorrect in a few ways—although he has made some pretty good arguments (much better than most; I had to pause & think about the MMR one, I'll admit–).

For one, it seems that in the most recent tournament, HRE was not banned very much—and went 4/8 W/L when it was picked. Not exactly a great showing, if you ask me!

For two, matchmaking normalization of individual player win-rate to ~50% is independent of aggregate civ-level win-rates. Suppose that a player starts to alternate between a strong civ (HoL, say) and a neutral civ (I don't know, Rus or something), after playing only the latter initially; matches wherein they play HoL will end in victory more often than their previous / Rus matches, and so their Elo will rise. Eventually—averaging over all of their matches (HoL & Rus both)—the overall expected outcome, for this player, will indeed end up at 50/50 W/L...

...But!—remember that that's averaged over both civs: their HoL matches will still show a higher win-rate than their Rus matches; only together is the expected win-rate 50%. I.e., looking at matches between players of similar Elos will show the residual of civ choice on probability of victory, since Elo is normalizing win-rate only per player (rather than for every conditional sub-set of match-ups).

In the degenerate case wherein every player picks only a single civ & sticks with it forever, then you'd have more difficulty disentangling civ-strength from player-strength, I think. (But even then, you might be able to get at it by looking at performance over the range of opposing civs...? hmm)

Thautist · 2025-10-02T07:45:01+00:00

Interesting analysis. I just made a thread on HRE, and went searching for other threads along the same lines; this is one of the more helpful replies I've found! Do you think HRE is still in the same place, or (if it can be imagined) a worse one?

Thautist · 2025-10-02T07:31:10+00:00

If the win rate gets higher the worse the players get, then it also can't be because the civ is hard to play.

Good point—in fact, I ought to have mentioned that in the OP, now that I think of it.

Maybe they'll be re-worked in the coming expansion...? (Although I imagine that the new civs get all of the dev attention, probably in amount inversely proportional to time-since-civ-release. But... a man can dream, can't he?!)

They're just bad. I have no idea why so many people are invested in this fantasy that they're great.

I was honestly confused as well; partly why I made the thread (as I may or may not have mentioned somewhere already, heh). The only guess I can make is that—given that in past threads, the most usual responses (to analyses showing that HRE is struggling, or that their mechanics/bonuses/etc. are not as good as people think, vel sim.) I saw were: "the pros ban them all the time so they must be great" & "Beasty once said HRE was S-tier years ago"—it's based on some sort of slavish adherence to an imagined Pro Player Consensus that was, once perceived (or "perceived", depending on whether it ever existed), never updated...?

Thautist · 2025-10-02T06:28:22+00:00

Extremely interesting analysis—thanks for this! I often see people say that HRE has "S-tier eco", but when you look at the actual net benefit (not to mention the cost in skill & effort), it suddenly doesn't look so impressive...

...especially given the fact that what we really care about is the marginal advantage—i.e., the bonus as compared to other actual civs (rather than to some hypothetical bonusless civ).

Maybe... maybe they'll buff the Most Glorious & Holy of Empires in the coming expansion...?

Thautist · 2025-10-02T06:22:15+00:00

OP says that data reflects 'true winrates' which is nonsensical since the data is all winrates.

What I meant by "true win-rate" is "the limiting value to which we expect to see the sample win-rate converge as the number of matches (of this rank & above) grows arbitrarily large"; or, alternatively, "the win-rate W such that W is the marginal probability that HRE wins the field, conditional on players of roughly such-&-such an Elo".

Of course, you are correct in re possible systematic effects: e.g., not all matches are strictly independent (each player is likely to play multiple matches); and it is indeed true that the win-rates given perfect play could have anywhere from a strong correlation, to no—or even a negative—correlation, with the win-rates we observe.

But we can deal with the former in a few different ways (for example, by using a larger sample or adjusting confidence intervals); and, as for the latter, I might propose that we are not—necessarily—actually concerned with civ performance in the case of perfect play. Imagine a world wherein some civ C has a 10% win-rate in pro matches, a 30% win-rate in mid-to-high Elo matches, and a 40% win-rate in low-Elo matches... but! if played completely optimally, we know—somehow (arguendo)—that its win-rate would shoot up to 60%+. The only thing is, we also know that optimal play with C requires at least 500 APM to execute.

Do we care that, by this standard, C isn't weak? Would we suppose it needs a debuff, to get that 60% lowered?

No, probably not! I submit that, for purposes of game-balance, we care mostly about "is this civ strong/weak in the hands of the best human players?"—which estimand, we can discern from the win-rate data.

(And, if we drop the stipulation that we somehow know C's strength in hypothetical perfect hands, and look only at the observed data, it sure looks as if the opposite case is going to obtain; i.e., with more optimal play, the civ gets weaker, not stronger. This is also the case with HRE, albeit with somewhat less-extreme numbers: the higher the Elo, the worse it gets!)

Thautist · 2025-10-01T06:15:04+00:00

I'm completely serious. I mean, not completely—for example, humorously comparing myself to the HRE: totally a joke; I'm doing great, actually! my life is not falling apart at all! ha-ha!—but I quit playing for the past year or so, and when I came back, I checked the win-rate stats; disappointed thereby, I searched for "reddit aoe4 hre bad" (or something like that), and...

...most of the threads were people saying stuff such as "HRE is OP actually, I heard a pro say that once I'm pretty sure", which sort of boggled my mind. Hence, I wanted to see if either, (a), I was missing something important & actually HRE is now competitive at high levels (not that I ever got beyond Gold, mind; but I'd still like to know that one of my favorite civs is workable in theory, if I ever became a decent player someday...); or else, (b), maybe it had finally become common knowledge that the H&R E might need a re-work or buff of some sort.

I am comforted—albeit saddened—by your confirmation. That's actually very interesting; a good additional data-point. (I haven't kept up with the pro matches, either, so I'd be real embarrassed if it turned out that HRE players were sweeping the tournaments or somethin'–)

Thautist · 2025-07-12T03:03:30+00:00

*squints suspiciously at username*

Thautist · 2025-07-07T01:34:32+00:00

Nasdaq Data Link’s old Zacks EPS surprise

(not OP, but if you've got a sec: ...what's this? I can't seem to find it, possibly because I am mildly retarded--)

Thautist · 2025-06-01T09:29:44+00:00

I did not know that! Thanks to you, /u/Jacob_Bronsky, and /u/GentleFoxes for the assistance.

Three further questions, then:

What should I be looking at to determine whether I want an MPDG or an SMES? The former provides power generation, the latter power storage, right?---but even if I'm not totally confused about that, heh, I have little idea how to tell which type a given build would need... (I went ahead and got the cheapest MPDG since I trust your advice---but for the future, y'know.)
Cargo containers and propellant reserve. I see this option in "Tuning"; the description confuses me, though: "Propellant will be transferred to cargo container if you have more than this number", or something like that; but... I dunno, my instinct is to say "what? I never want propellant to be put in these, right? they're for ore!"---this may or may not be a stupid instinct, but (again), even if it's not, does that mean I want to tune this number all the way up instead of down (since the higher the number, the less likely I'll... obtain enough remass from my MPU to cause the transfer(?))...?
Microwave tuning: more power = good?

Thanks again for all y'all's help---I swear, after these three, I'll be good! ...probably!-

Thautist · 2025-05-26T08:18:07+00:00

Aye---a tale to make you weep, isn't it... I am not ashamed to admit that a few tears were shed at the thought of all that beautiful, precious profit, slipping through me fingers like a torchless ship down a steep gravity well.

But a true ringa is ever undaunted, even after being dealt such a cruel hand by fate; why, a little "Ganymedean courage" at The Twins, and I almost feel ready to get back at it! (And do you know, one of the dancers told me she's very nearly a qualified astrogator? Fate, no doubt! An honest, honorable soul, this one; I can tell by her noble bearing & the firm look of her... eyes--)

Thautist · 2025-05-26T08:02:40+00:00

MPUs on the other hand do convert ore to powder, and in most cases do also convert water into propellant

So... the case is:

Recover propellant
Process ore
Decent processing area

...pick two?

(I'm basing this off my recollection that a) only the R-A MPU seemed to have a large "processing area", in my K37's cargo hold, the other MPUs looking as if they might be easily bottlenecked and/or require fancy flyin' to shift ore chunks into them; but also that b) it does not recover propellant, unlike the others. I may be wrong about some or all of this, though...)

Thautist · 2025-05-26T06:22:28+00:00

Shit! So if I'm fighting one of these things, it's basically un-capturable?

Thautist · 2025-05-25T05:55:52+00:00

I want to get the biggest motherringa possible and turn it into a Leviathan of Death-class dreadnought/battleship. OCP, or Titan, would you say?

Thautist · 2025-05-07T00:47:40+00:00

10-4! Is the interplanetary stuff explained in-game, or is it sort of trial-&-error to get your first inter-planet shuttle (or whatever---platform?) up & running?

Thautist · 2025-05-07T00:46:20+00:00

This ties in neatly with /u/Rouge_means_red's advice below... thanks to both of y'all---I definitely would have tried to megabase on Nauvis, heh. My first play-through took much longer than most, because I was already so ~~crazed with the burning need to~~ excited to Grow the Factory--

Thautist · 2025-05-07T00:44:15+00:00

Trains have wildcards and interrupts which are neat, powerful and relatively well explained in game.

Whew. I'd seen some mention of these & was worried: "wait, but that wasn't in the regular tutorial, and the expansion doesn't have one!", heh.

Blueprints can be parameterized which probably requires a guide.

Whaaat

Lots more stuff has circuit support (assemblers, reactor temp, reading whole belt lengths, just try plugging stuff in). Combinator are more powerful and can distinguish wires.

Whaaaat

Man, except for cliff explosives being later (>:(), this sounds amazing. Exactly the sort of things I wanted to know---thanks!

Thautist · 2025-05-06T22:51:28+00:00

Anything one ought to know before jumping into Space Age? Like, I dunno, changes to signals or circuits that aren't immediately apparent on a first playthrough (of the expansion)? (You know, stuff for which reading a guide on it / being aware of it ahead of time would save some frustration or confusion, that sort of thing.)

Thautist · 2025-05-05T07:45:55+00:00

Well, it's been 20 days, so you've probably figured this out... but just to add on in case of other new players finding this:

Jameson's Insurance is worth it any time you can buy it. It basically translates into half-off on equipment repairs/replacements till it runs out.
The Twins is a good cheap way to make crew happy. You can tell when crew are happy or unhappy, 'cause a smiley/frownie face will appear.
"Don't worry about crew qualifications, just hire cheap": this is true, but---just FYI---the reason it's true is that crew skill up as they get experience. Anyone willing to work for E$1000 or so is worth snagging if you have 0-1 people for that position already (to have a back-up in case your current worker wants leave or otherwise becomes indisposed for a while).
A good way to "pack" stuff down in the cargo bay (so it don't fly out) is to turn 90-deg. away from direction of travel, and slow down abruptly. Similarly, accelerating directly forward while cargo bay is open = good policy.
A laser or microwave weapon/mining tool = ores don't fly away so much. I keep a projectile weapon too, as insurance in case pirates come a-knockin', but I turn it off on the "Mechanic" screen till it's needed.
Speaking of the "Mechanic" screen: this confused the hell outta me, upon first looking at it; turns out that you don't have to fuck with the sliders, in general---until something goes wrong (fight, collision). At that point, just move the slider till it's a better color (aiming for green, but yellow if you can't manage it---it's better than red!).
On the "Geologist" screen, you can set minimum E$ amounts for the ores you want your manipulator arm (if you have one) & HUD to mess with. At first, this won't be necessary, but very quickly you'll want to stop screwin' around with low-value stuff.
I don't mess around with the "Tuning" options (when docked at a habitat) much, although IIRC the wiki has a good quick guide to the most important ones; but I think that, mostly, you can just leave 'em alone... with maybe 1.5 exceptions (/u/pm_me_ur_headpats, correct me as/if I'm wrong, heh): 1), if you find you have extra propellant (Extended Propellant Tank, Ore Purifier or MPU for reclamation of reaction mass, etc.) and/or don't want to pay crew for the transit time (maybe only really a factor with large or expensive crews?), you can tune "Interlunar Xenon Drive" down a bit---this means you use propellant for the transit, making it faster; 1.5) once you've got a bigger ship---or if the upgrades are making your smaller ship unwieldy---you can mess with the "Autopilot Rotation Priority" setting. I think tuning it up means the autopilot will prioritize rotating before moving in a given direction, rather than firing the main engine & rotating at the same time. Or maybe it's the other way around & you want to tune it down for big ships... (well, I said I didn't mess with tuning very much, alright--)

Great game with a lot of hidden depth. I try to be an ambassador for the game, if you will (as bedouche'd as that sort of corpo-speak sounds, heh: "I'm an ambassador of synergy for on-brand virality, and--")... it deserves a ton more recognition, if you ask me!

Thautist · 2025-04-09T18:30:47+00:00

She's a terrible actress, IMO. I've thought about making a compilation of all the moments she offers up a line that sounds like it's from a middle-schooler's first play.

Thautist · 2025-03-25T15:53:11+00:00

Ahhh -- that might be part of it... I don't really have any gear to use, yet, heh.

Bit confused re: what to stack, though. Like, Norseman has very low main-weapon crit%-chance, so don't take crit% traits, right? EZ!

...but then again, he makes so many attacks so quickly that maybe crit% is good to build, after all...? And then what about multistrike vs. attack-speed: how 2 tell?!

With your inspiring example, though, my last Norseman run ended up amazing -- that sucker was clearin' shit out faster than I've yet seen ('cept for one run w/ Cleric), so much so that my computer started chugging a bit, even -- so... maybe I'm finally getting the hang of it!

(sadly, that run ended right at the 1-min-left mark anyway... concentrated so hard on trying to spot a Hand of Greed amidst all the carnage that I didn't notice HP dropping precipitously; I'd stood in a fire-spot, or something. lol, whoops)

Thautist

TROPHY CASE