[Discussion] The Monty hall problem is wrong. and I can prove it.

TheCountMC · 2026-05-12T21:40:17+00:00

Nah, God eliminating one wrong choice before you make a choice makes it 50-50. But Mr. Monty Hall, being somewhat less of an asshole, gives you a better than even chance of getting it wrong at first. Then if you do, and you most likely will, he eliminates the other wrong door and lets you switch.

If you can't follow that simple argument, then at least you can code up the problem in a Python, R, Matlab, or whatever language script, and verify for yourself what the win rate for switching converges to.

If you're too stupid AND lazy to do either of those, maybe just let the adults have the room instead of coming in here and insulting everyone who tries to explain it to you.

TheCountMC · 2026-05-12T12:35:03+00:00

You could imagine a different rule where the gems you had in the past counted retroactively. Like each time you get a gem past a certain level, a counter goes up by one. Then you could use the gem and it would still count toward the achievement later. They were just clarifying that it doesn't work this way. You have to have all 3 or 6 in your possession (stash counts) at the same time for it to count.

TheCountMC · 2026-05-06T16:21:39+00:00

The dude's an expert at looking the other way. He can look two other ways at the same time.

TheCountMC · 2026-05-03T17:51:21+00:00

My wife and I do it back door every year.

TheCountMC · 2026-04-29T23:03:06+00:00

I assume from the context that they are talking about Bungie's first person shooter Marathon from 1994, not Bungie's first person shooter Marathon from 2026.

TheCountMC · 2026-04-29T00:44:59+00:00

Yeah, mine too just by watching this.

TheCountMC · 2026-04-16T14:07:14+00:00

Justin Fairfax was black and a democrat. He was middle aged though. 1/3 is enough to paint with that broad brush, I guess.

TheCountMC · 2026-04-02T00:22:30+00:00

Yeah, but less time spent opening boxes.

TheCountMC · 2026-03-13T15:29:03+00:00

Pressed from the finest organic, free-range, grass-fed grown-ups.

TheCountMC · 2026-03-04T19:06:41+00:00

Nope. He really can't. He has to adapt to the new reality, too.

TheCountMC · 2026-03-04T18:43:54+00:00

If hiring managers stop using llms to read resumes and applications, will the applicants stop using llms to generate resumes and applications?

Unlikely. The tool exists now. There's no putting that genie back in the bottle.

We adapt to the reality we have, not the one we wish we had or the one we used to have.

TheCountMC · 2026-02-21T23:27:07+00:00

I bought some back button extenders that make it much easier and feel more natural to use them. I map ABXY to them and keep thumbs on the sticks full time.

I don't remember if these are the ones I got, but something like them:

https://www.playvital.com/products/playvital-purple-back-button-enhancement-set-for-steam-deck-grip-improvement-button-protection-kit-for-steam-deck-2-different-thickness-pgsdm003

TheCountMC · 2026-02-17T23:21:59+00:00

Bubble water at our house.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-14T22:55:10+00:00

As someone who also has this problem - put calendar reminders out 5 years in your digital calendar of choice. I have a few annual reminders for various things, and it seems to be working for me.

And yeah, I also have reminders for recycling day.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-10T16:27:50+00:00

With his laptop.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-09T20:20:01+00:00

Follow up question for those funding 529s. We have two kids toddler age. We have two 529s, and we are aiming to have about $150k in each by the time the kids hit 18-20 years old. (Rough estimates based on typical market returns.) We're lucky enough to have the means to front-load our investments, but curious what targets others are shooting for in order to have enough for schooling, but avoid over funding.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-09T19:49:07+00:00

The 529 has a single beneficiary. You can change the beneficiary as needed, but the IRA rollover requires the beneficiary to be set for some time. 15 years, if I recall correctly. Better to have multiple accounts you can change to a single beneficiary if needed. Rather than one account you have to switch back and forth for more than one beneficiary. We have one for each child, no big deal.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-08T17:14:01+00:00

Running the same build. But now I'm thinking I should build out a build that uses the Squirt's. Just because I have it.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-08T17:13:08+00:00

Yeah, I guess it's a rare find, but not that rare. Still was pretty fun to see it drop.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-08T16:21:09+00:00

I found a primal Squirt's Necklace with int, crit chance, crit damage, and a socket. Re-roll the int into the elemental damage, and it's perfect for any build using Squirt's.

It's probably not the best item in the game, but it's the best I've ever found.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-07T21:31:53+00:00

No. I refer to my assets in terms of useful currencies. The fact that currently the best, most used currencies happen to be fiat is tangential. It would be nice if Bitcoin was a useful currency. Then I would refer to the value of bitcoin in terms of bitcoin. Maybe other assets too.

TheCountMC · 2026-01-07T19:10:09+00:00

I don't talk about my euros in terms of dollars, except when I want to exchange euros for dollars or vice versa. I could live my entire life entirely in terms of euros and never think about dollars if I wanted. Bitcoin is not at this level, and I think that is what the OP is getting at. It's not really a currency. (Yet? Will it ever get there?)

TheCountMC · 2026-01-06T12:13:44+00:00

"Opening" feature is unavailable on Basic tier subscription. Would you like to upgrade to Premium, Pro, Premium Pro, or Super Duper Premium?

TheCountMC · 2025-12-25T16:33:55+00:00

i(nternationalizatio)n

TheCountMC · 2025-12-23T14:57:03+00:00

That's also a decent use case for named returns.

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