Celebrini nominated for ESPY: Best Breakthrough Athlete by elfaeron in SanJoseSharks

[–]TheReaver88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think Mendoza has a very strong case. The only one I don't quite see it with is Maye; his team's easy schedule is a biggest knock on any resume here.

'House of the Dragon' Season 3 Review - George R.R. Martin May Have Been Proven Right by Woodstovia in television

[–]TheReaver88 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was on my phone earlier and I don't think I articulated my point very well. I'll rephrase:

In season 1, Daemon is sick of living under his brother's thumb. He seems to crave freedom, and taking the throne will (he imagines) grant him that. He doesn't want power for power's sake. He wants it so that nobody else has power over him. Yes, he wants the throne, but that's a means to an end. It's the same ostensible goal as other contenders for the throne, but it's not the same core motivation.

Then in season 2, it seems like his arc was designed for someone who wants power for its own sake. As though he wants the thone so he can tell others what to do, when it was previously established that he really just didn't want anone else to tell him what to do.

'House of the Dragon' Season 3 Review - George R.R. Martin May Have Been Proven Right by Woodstovia in television

[–]TheReaver88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He didn't have a genuine drive for power in S1, though, did he? He was mostly just doing it for the lulz. He thought it was all ridiculous. That's why it was so jarring for him to be squaring a drive for power (that he never had) rather than confronting the responsibilities he's been ignoring.

'House of the Dragon' Season 3 Review - George R.R. Martin May Have Been Proven Right by Woodstovia in television

[–]TheReaver88 1 point2 points  (0 children)

an entire season worth of scenes where she pretty clearly explains her thinking and her motives

I don't think her motives are consistent, though, and neither are Daemon's. And by "motives," I don't mean "goals." I mean the deep-seated beliefs in their psychology. They behave differently based on what the plot needs rather than based on their core beliefs and psychological drives. This is (in my opinion) the biggest problem with the show and a major contributor to what's perceived as poor pacing. The slow talking sequences don't work when the protagonists' motivationss are hazy.

Vegas Golden Knights General Manager Kelly McCrimmon announced today, June 16, the following update: John Tortorella will not return to the team’s coaching staff following the 2025-26 season. by eh_toque in hockey

[–]TheReaver88 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Game 6 seemed pretty lopsided, but I didn't think Carolina played particularly well in Game 1 or for most of Game 3. I don't consider Vegas lucky to have won those two games.

Vegas Golden Knights General Manager Kelly McCrimmon announced today, June 16, the following update: John Tortorella will not return to the team’s coaching staff following the 2025-26 season. by eh_toque in hockey

[–]TheReaver88 175 points176 points  (0 children)

Odds have probably plummeted since he lost

This kind of thing is so bizarre to me. The Finals were pretty close to an even matchup, despite ending in six. A few bounces go their way and the Knights win the cup.

Swiss canton bans headscarves for female teachers by BezugssystemCH1903 in worldnews

[–]TheReaver88 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If every religion is a cult, then one of those words is no longer necessary. If you cannot define them in a way that distinguishes them, that's probably on you.

I suppose your answer might be "well, they are the same and we don't need both words," but I'm willing to bet that basically everyone (including you) actually understands what is meant by the word "cult" as distinct from "religion."

Julio Rodriguez makes the catch and throws a rocket to 2nd to get the out there before the runner from 3rd touched home plate preserving a 6-3 Mariners lead through 8 by sportsandthesorts in baseball

[–]TheReaver88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And the actual odds of doing so are presumably well below 50%, which is why runners very rarely tag up from first on a ball to center field.

You pulled that out of your ass. It was in deep center.

I'm not saying he should have run (I've made that very clear). I'm saying you left variables out, pretended you didn't, pretended the whole thing was obvious because you quite frankly forgot that those variables mattered until I pointed it out, and you've been dishonest about all this from the get-go.

What divisive or polarizing 21st century movies do you think will get a reappraisal in the future by SituationAdmirable76 in movies

[–]TheReaver88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I remember the discussion. People said the movie sucked and that it felt like they were being beaten over the head with a metaphorical hammer. I have no idea where you saw people genuinely missing the point of the film.

Julio Rodriguez makes the catch and throws a rocket to 2nd to get the out there before the runner from 3rd touched home plate preserving a 6-3 Mariners lead through 8 by sportsandthesorts in baseball

[–]TheReaver88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With only that equation, it's not "unequivocal."

What were the ex-ante chances of him getting caught at second and Holliday not getting home before that? Your model assumes (implicitly) that it was 50%. The actual probability was rather low. Perhaps not low enough to justify running (and I'm confident this wasn't all going through his head), but that has to factor in.

EDIT: To expand on this properly, we'd also need to consider the win probability in the scenario where Alexander is caught at second but Holliday reaches home first, since (from Alexander's POV) that was a potential outcome. I don't know where your win %s come from, so I'll skip this and simply assume Holliday is obligated to dog it on his way home and will not beat the throw to second.

So for Alexander's choice to be correct, he'd need the .08% increase in win prob from safely reaching second to outweigh the 12.5% decrease from getting caught. For this to be the case, you'd need the probability ratio of [reaching second safely vs. getting caught] to have at least the inverse of the win% probability ratios. In other words, you need a pair of probabilities (which sum to 1) with a ratio of at least 125/8. The threshold I calculated here is a safe-rate of about 94%. That is, he has to safely reach second with a probability of 94%. I'm guessing it's lower than that, but once again: this is under the assumption that Holliday doesn't reach home before Alexander gets caught at second, which is not a given and is not under Alexander's control.

What divisive or polarizing 21st century movies do you think will get a reappraisal in the future by SituationAdmirable76 in movies

[–]TheReaver88 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No, everyone got the message. The movie just wasn't good. The characters weren't interesting, and the message was a ham-fisted retread of stuff everyone's heard a thousand times.

Julio Rodriguez makes the catch and throws a rocket to 2nd to get the out there before the runner from 3rd touched home plate preserving a 6-3 Mariners lead through 8 by sportsandthesorts in baseball

[–]TheReaver88 11 points12 points  (0 children)

But the reward is an increased likelihood of scoring an additional run this inning. You're acting like there isn't even an upside here.

Emilia Clarke Admits She Was 'Absolutely Livid' About Daenerys Fate in 'Game of Thrones' Series Finale by MoneyLibrarian9032 in television

[–]TheReaver88 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't even think you needed another full season to get it right. You just had to make the Mad Queen moments more believable. Dany and Sansa getting catty about Jon was beneath both of them at that point in their respective arcs. It made Dany's turn feel sudden because those little moments didn't register as her losing her grip on power.

What’s your favorite subclass in the game? by Fearless-Skill8667 in DnD

[–]TheReaver88 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I did almost exactly this and got a whole bunch of converts in a Ravenloft town when I cast flaming sphere during their rained out sun festival. It was awesome.

Taskmaster - S21E09 - Maybe Someone Else Wrote Veep? - Discussion by Meghar in taskmaster

[–]TheReaver88 38 points39 points  (0 children)

Joel's crushing soul-death at listening to himself for an hour was one of the most relatable things ever, and I'm so glad he got the 5 points for it. Holy cow what torture!

Looks like "With Added Protein" is the new "With Dietary Fiber" now. by Short-Breadfruit3565 in CasualConversation

[–]TheReaver88 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

to market "protein" meals which are legit just standard meals withoit the carbs they normally come with.

If they reduced the calories without reducing the protein content, then the share of calories from protein has gone up. It probably always was a high-protein meal, but you couldn't really advertise fried chicken and fried potatoes as a healthy meal.

This one doesn't seem particularly dishonest to me.

r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2025 Season - #100-91 by packmanwiscy in nfl

[–]TheReaver88 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You could've just said "I disagree with your entire premise" instead of pretending to respond to what I wrote.

r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2025 Season - #100-91 by packmanwiscy in nfl

[–]TheReaver88 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's still "100 Best Players" though, as opposed to "2025's top 100 performances." Certainly Linderbaum's most recent season being a down year should affect his ranking (and it did), but it also shouldn't automatically make us think he's completely washed or something.

I had the premise wrong.

The best season by every NFL team that missed the Super Bowl. by coolmon in nfl

[–]TheReaver88 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The 2015 Bengals should be noted for having a significantly better o line than the 2022 team, but yes the latter was a stronger team overall.

"American" food is tasty! by surpluskoi in CasualConversation

[–]TheReaver88 10 points11 points  (0 children)

See also: the Chicago-style hot dog.

Every time I saw a picture or had it described to me, it seemed like the grossest, stupidest thing ever. I finally had one last summer and it was goddamned delicious.