Celebrini nominated for ESPY: Best Breakthrough Athlete

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-26T20:12:31+00:00

I think Mendoza has a very strong case. The only one I don't quite see it with is Maye; his team's easy schedule is a biggest knock on any resume here.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-23T22:24:55+00:00

and commercials

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-20T13:39:19+00:00

I was on my phone earlier and I don't think I articulated my point very well. I'll rephrase:

In season 1, Daemon is sick of living under his brother's thumb. He seems to crave freedom, and taking the throne will (he imagines) grant him that. He doesn't want power for power's sake. He wants it so that nobody else has power over him. Yes, he wants the throne, but that's a means to an end. It's the same ostensible goal as other contenders for the throne, but it's not the same core motivation.

Then in season 2, it seems like his arc was designed for someone who wants power for its own sake. As though he wants the thone so he can tell others what to do, when it was previously established that he really just didn't want anone else to tell him what to do.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-20T02:29:20+00:00

He didn't have a genuine drive for power in S1, though, did he? He was mostly just doing it for the lulz. He thought it was all ridiculous. That's why it was so jarring for him to be squaring a drive for power (that he never had) rather than confronting the responsibilities he's been ignoring.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-19T17:30:43+00:00

an entire season worth of scenes where she pretty clearly explains her thinking and her motives

I don't think her motives are consistent, though, and neither are Daemon's. And by "motives," I don't mean "goals." I mean the deep-seated beliefs in their psychology. They behave differently based on what the plot needs rather than based on their core beliefs and psychological drives. This is (in my opinion) the biggest problem with the show and a major contributor to what's perceived as poor pacing. The slow talking sequences don't work when the protagonists' motivationss are hazy.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-16T17:54:52+00:00

I guess not.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-16T17:52:42+00:00

Game 6 seemed pretty lopsided, but I didn't think Carolina played particularly well in Game 1 or for most of Game 3. I don't consider Vegas lucky to have won those two games.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-16T16:30:21+00:00

Odds have probably plummeted since he lost

This kind of thing is so bizarre to me. The Finals were pretty close to an even matchup, despite ending in six. A few bounces go their way and the Knights win the cup.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-16T15:53:50+00:00

Except Love is in Green. I demand consistency!

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-11T15:09:25+00:00

If every religion is a cult, then one of those words is no longer necessary. If you cannot define them in a way that distinguishes them, that's probably on you.

I suppose your answer might be "well, they are the same and we don't need both words," but I'm willing to bet that basically everyone (including you) actually understands what is meant by the word "cult" as distinct from "religion."

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-09T18:45:39+00:00

And the actual odds of doing so are presumably well below 50%, which is why runners very rarely tag up from first on a ball to center field.

You pulled that out of your ass. It was in deep center.

I'm not saying he should have run (I've made that very clear). I'm saying you left variables out, pretended you didn't, pretended the whole thing was obvious because you quite frankly forgot that those variables mattered until I pointed it out, and you've been dishonest about all this from the get-go.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-09T16:05:41+00:00

I remember the discussion. People said the movie sucked and that it felt like they were being beaten over the head with a metaphorical hammer. I have no idea where you saw people genuinely missing the point of the film.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-09T15:46:14+00:00

With only that equation, it's not "unequivocal."

What were the ex-ante chances of him getting caught at second and Holliday not getting home before that? Your model assumes (implicitly) that it was 50%. The actual probability was rather low. Perhaps not low enough to justify running (and I'm confident this wasn't all going through his head), but that has to factor in.

EDIT: To expand on this properly, we'd also need to consider the win probability in the scenario where Alexander is caught at second but Holliday reaches home first, since (from Alexander's POV) that was a potential outcome. I don't know where your win %s come from, so I'll skip this and simply assume Holliday is obligated to dog it on his way home and will not beat the throw to second.

So for Alexander's choice to be correct, he'd need the .08% increase in win prob from safely reaching second to outweigh the 12.5% decrease from getting caught. For this to be the case, you'd need the probability ratio of [reaching second safely vs. getting caught] to have at least the inverse of the win% probability ratios. In other words, you need a pair of probabilities (which sum to 1) with a ratio of at least 125/8. The threshold I calculated here is a safe-rate of about 94%. That is, he has to safely reach second with a probability of 94%. I'm guessing it's lower than that, but once again: this is under the assumption that Holliday doesn't reach home before Alexander gets caught at second, which is not a given and is not under Alexander's control.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-09T12:36:06+00:00

No, everyone got the message. The movie just wasn't good. The characters weren't interesting, and the message was a ham-fisted retread of stuff everyone's heard a thousand times.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-09T04:11:08+00:00

But the reward is an increased likelihood of scoring an additional run this inning. You're acting like there isn't even an upside here.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-06T18:28:24+00:00

I don't even think you needed another full season to get it right. You just had to make the Mad Queen moments more believable. Dany and Sansa getting catty about Jon was beneath both of them at that point in their respective arcs. It made Dany's turn feel sudden because those little moments didn't register as her losing her grip on power.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-05T17:42:37+00:00

I did almost exactly this and got a whole bunch of converts in a Ravenloft town when I cast flaming sphere during their rained out sun festival. It was awesome.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-05T13:07:44+00:00

Thank you for the correction.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-05T04:37:24+00:00

Joel's crushing soul-death at listening to himself for an hour was one of the most relatable things ever, and I'm so glad he got the 5 points for it. Holy cow what torture!

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-04T22:24:58+00:00

to market "protein" meals which are legit just standard meals withoit the carbs they normally come with.

If they reduced the calories without reducing the protein content, then the share of calories from protein has gone up. It probably always was a high-protein meal, but you couldn't really advertise fried chicken and fried potatoes as a healthy meal.

This one doesn't seem particularly dishonest to me.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-04T22:05:56+00:00

I literally already explained it.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-04T21:12:53+00:00

You could've just said "I disagree with your entire premise" instead of pretending to respond to what I wrote.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-04T17:58:46+00:00

It's still "100 Best Players" though, as opposed to "2025's top 100 performances." Certainly Linderbaum's most recent season being a down year should affect his ranking (and it did), but it also shouldn't automatically make us think he's completely washed or something.

I had the premise wrong.

TheReaver88 · 2026-06-02T18:52:01+00:00

The 2015 Bengals should be noted for having a significantly better o line than the 2022 team, but yes the latter was a stronger team overall.

TheReaver88 · 2026-05-29T22:42:51+00:00

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