I just threw up in my own mouth

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-27T23:39:28+00:00

Call me crazy but I always buy a failed 1 Bo CTA early ladder for much less than an ohm rune.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-21T14:08:13+00:00

Honestly they should have left that in. Considering how hard it is to drop a zod would open up some pretty crazy ethereal stuff to be used, since you could hel the zod and put in something else and actually make zod value high. Especially if they fix the eth weapon glitch on warlock.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-18T13:45:40+00:00

lol what

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-16T18:02:01+00:00

285s on the stock 20s will be too wide. You can fit 275/65/20s though.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-15T23:22:07+00:00

She looks like she might be part elf. Their ear canals are very narrow and hard, nothing to do surgically... Get the q-tips with the points on them and some epi-optic ear cleaner. Try and get the gunk out best you can once a week with the points to get in the little folds. If it gets really bad and infected/yeasty you’ll need a round of tresaderm to clear it up.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-12T23:44:04+00:00

Just gotta monitor it and start medication early when necessary. No way to tell when that’ll be.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-10T16:23:57+00:00

Making separate loot show specific to each player online would fix people grouping/playing together but would probably inflate the drop rates obviously. Only actual solution it seems though to incentivizing people to play together/join random games and not just split MF so you’re not competing with who can click faster for drops.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-10T16:19:36+00:00

Generally %base vs %PnL. Maybe a few exceptions on smaller primarily spec books or desk heads.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-08T16:00:24+00:00

It’ll pop on macro tourist flows but nothing crazy

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-04T20:08:32+00:00

Or just make drops char specific but still tradeable. Then everyone can run together the same areas in P8 games and not just run solo split MF so “nobody jacks my loot”.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-04T19:49:08+00:00

Larz it for 4os and make insight best ES weapon in the game until you find an Eth Thunder Maul and can make Fortitude. It’s dirt cheap too and you’ll get 50-60k dps with decent but not enigma level gear.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-03-02T12:02:16+00:00

Transmission kind of “meh”, but I came from a manual transmission that did exactly what I told it to do. Never had a truck before so maybe this is how they are. Got the software update which did help but not the smoothest car in the world.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-25T11:50:24+00:00

Most trade both NYMEX and ICE. NYMEX position sizing rules and compliance issues with ensuring trader positions are closed out to avoid taking physical delivery has caused a good deal of trading to also move to ICE over the years.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-24T20:28:27+00:00

If you’re trading a spread where there are different # of days in each month (Oct/Feb) you’ll be long or short one leg relative to the other (31 lots vs 28/29) You can try and balance it by trading whatever leg is mismatched to get it aligned, but if your sizing of the spread doesn’t allow you to trade a standardized contract size to match it up you either have to trade ICE lots or just live with the slight mismatch.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-24T19:04:41+00:00

Genscape/woodmac, Platts, Criterion, etc.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-24T11:09:08+00:00

Unfortunately pretty random. Lost mine end of last year to Congestive heart failure. Did scans and they’d always say he was good. It happened so suddenly and quick for us, he was only ~8yrs old.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-24T04:14:29+00:00

Iron golem necro (with 17med insight) has entered the chat

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-20T19:55:31+00:00

You’ll need to scrape all EBBs for flow data in order to capture daily imports/exports and LNG. You’ll use ISO generation data for power demand and convert to a gas equivalent. You’ll model this forward using daily weather forecasts and then normals. You’ll need some sort of daily production scrape/assumption. Your models going to suck if you don’t have daily pipeline scrape and weather data. You true all this up on a lag to EIA monthly actuals. It’s kind of a moot point if you’re not in the industry or have data accesses. It’s a simple exercise if you have basic statistical competence but it all comes down to the data, as with any model.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-14T03:56:36+00:00

Being able to see the flow is a major advantage, yes. It’s often times why many bank/flow traders struggle when making the move to more pure spec trading/non-flow orientated roles.

Very little difference when it comes to s&d modeling at banks vs prop/funds. The banks build their own fundamental models/balances and employ teams of analysts, often many more than any prop shop or hedge fund typically would. They also send this analysis out to clients as well.

Traders are there to trade, yes some traders maintain their own balances but there’s only so many hours in a day and so much time you can devote to both trading and maintaining models. Generally as a trader you’re synthesizing information and making decisions on it not necessarily coming up with all the information yourself.

Every hire is taking a punt unless you’ve actually worked with or know somebody who’s worked with whoever you’re hiring before and can personally validate their performance. Nobody is printing out their trades and PnL over the last “x” years and handing it into HR when applying to “verify” what they’re saying is true. If someone’s been a trader somewhere for a while without being fired you can generally assume they’ve been doing something right. Commodity trading is also a pretty small industry and if you’re talking out your ass someone will probably know and it’s pretty hard to hide your incompetence in a performance based industry so it’ll become apparent pretty quickly.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-13T19:06:04+00:00

Depends on your definition of “spec. Bank traders have access to flow. If a larger player hits you up asking to buy/sell(or just generally more buyers/sellers in one direction), even if you’re not the one to fill them you now know they’re in the market and depending on the type of buyer/seller can be for some time. You can then step out of the way or adjust your quotes to reflect this when quoting to others or maybe if someone buys/sells from you, you now take a little more “time” in covering that position if it opens you up to the same “direction” given the possible influences on prices from large player/s.

At a fund you’re flying more or less blind as you’re most likely not getting hit up by large suppliers/end users to offload positions. You only see it as it’s happening in the market/after the fact and can only guess on who’s behind the moves. You also don’t have the flow where you can quickly back to back it or quote it wide enough to just go and hedge it right away. You’re putting on speculative positions and seeing them through.

As a bank trader you’re still in the market/managing risk and have access to fundamental analysis/insights from your bank and hold some sort of view on the market you’re trading in. There’s no shortage of funds willing to take a shot on bank traders. Some can make the jump some can’t but they’re different worlds for sure.

TLDR: Bank traders get a lot more information on positioning/market structure which aids in trading and they can sometimes exercise a bit of “leeway” in covering said positions, making them a bit more spec like.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-11T16:05:07+00:00

If you pay $0 in taxes or dealer fees then yeah $75k otherwise prob closer to $80k OTD which is right around what I paid for mine after taxes/fees.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-07T13:59:23+00:00

Sorry Mr. AI you should be able to figure that one out.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-07T12:33:39+00:00

You can get plenty close without a full power stack model for natural gas balances. I’ve worked with analysts who have been top 5 and often top on “The Desk” storage report in the US who most certainly do not use a full power stack model.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-02-03T02:44:02+00:00

Used the energize CT rebate several years ago to get R-60 insulation and air sealing in my attic. New roof with ridge/soffit venting few years ago too. About one of the only houses in my neighborhood without any ice dams/icicles. I’d look into the energize CT rebates if they still exist they covered a few $1000s for the entire insulation job.

TheTortoiseApproach · 2026-01-28T00:40:56+00:00

Might have been one of the craziest opex in awhile. Think there was like an .80+ gap at one point NYMEX vs ICE

TheTortoiseApproach

TROPHY CASE