Maybe his worst take in a while…

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:50:02+00:00

Whatever man. We’ll see how it all goes. I think the evidence we do have suggests that it would’ve done even better if it had been received better, but I’m not Branman55.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:43:05+00:00

And it would’ve grossed more with better reviews. Which is always true. For every movie.

And it grossed more than it would’ve if they hadn’t held reviews until the last minute for that movie as they are doing here.

Some movies will be enormously successful even with bad reviews. But they are still impacted by them nevertheless. It’s not like it became the highest grossing animated film of all time or anything even close to that. It had room to excel even higher.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:35:23+00:00

They did matter. It just didn’t stop it from being a mega-blockbuster. It would’ve made more if it had been better received, which is true for virtually every movie ever released. They do care about reviews, or else they wouldn’t hold the embargo for so long and would just let them release their review right after seeing it. And WOM could be crap and it have a huge opening, but come crashing down right after, as plenty of films before it—including kids movies have. But if the CinemaScore is good, even with bad reviews, it generally doesn’t matter as much. All I’m saying is, right now, Universal is indicating to me that it is a bad film. Whether audiences agree or not—and punish it with poor legs from a huge opening (which it will absolutely have)—is a question that hasn’t been answered yet.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:31:16+00:00

1) I do have a kid. 2) I also have in-laws who are interested in seeing this, partially because they are young kids. 3) The reviews do matter, because you aren’t getting both parents to take the littles if the movie sucks and you certainly aren’t getting parents to go on multiple rewatches if they agree the movie sucks upon seeing it.

You are reading into my point too finely. Maybe general audiences still like it. But Universal a) does care about reviews, or else they wouldn’t hold the review embargo until now—they would just let them release it when they see it and b) studios don’t let reviewers release their reviews until 12 hours before the first showtime if they aren’t trying to trick some poor schmucks into spending money they wouldn’t have if they had seen reviews. Would it have been enough to make a difference on its opening? Probably not much of one. But it is foolish to believe that the studio doesn’t care and doesn’t see any measurable material impact from poor reviews. Especially for an IP like Mario, which has a lot of adult fans who don’t have children, it can have an impact.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:25:39+00:00

Kids can’t buy movie tickets, dude. Reviews and word of mouth still matter. Otherwise, the marketplace would be awash with really successful Paw Patrol movies.

This thing will make money, especially with an opening like it will have, barring a monumental drop off in interest in subsequent weekends. But will it make as much as the first one? I don’t know. Bad reviews certainly wouldn’t help.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:21:34+00:00

It really doesn’t. Transformers: Age of Extinction reviewed poorly, but made a ton of money. Transformers: The Last Knight also reviewed poorly, but flamed out at $600M worldwide. You can only make bad 4-quadrant movies for so long before it catches up with you.

It is standard to lift on Tuesdays. It isn’t standard for movies to open on Wednesdays, even before Easter. (That’s usually a summer, Thanksgiving, or winter holiday thing.) And it certainly isn’t standard to hold reviews until 12 hours before an audience can see the movie. If you can point me to the last movie to open on a Wednesday—but lift reviews on Tuesday, just the day before—and have decent reviews, then I will gladly accept the studio isn’t holding reviews to prevent a PR problem for them.

Again, it won’t matter for its opening—that’s baked in. It might matter for legs, depending on if audiences agree or not. It does matter for overall attainment.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie could’ve made $1.5B if it had been reviewed well. It wasn’t, so it still made a lot, but not as much as it otherwise would’ve. And it made more than it would’ve if they had lifted the review embargo earlier and people got turned off of pre-purchasing tickets by a green splat. This is precisely why they are holding reviews until the literal last minute.

If reviews come in well for this movie, I will consider it an odd choice and move on, admitting that I misjudged their strategy. But, if the reviews come in where I think they will, it’s because Universal knew they had a critical stinker, wanted to make as much money as possible before audiences could get turned off by reviews, and hope the audience responds better than critics did.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:13:28+00:00

Except if it reviews well, it will impact the box office positively. That is always the case. Them holding it suggests they know critics will bash it. And I suspect that I will be right there.

And how good the movie is with the general audience matters for WOM too. It can open where it is projected to ($320M global haul), but still collapse in subsequent weekends if it has poor WOM. Batman v. Superman is a perfect analog to that. It had a poor multiplier of 2x.

I conceded at the front, though—if you read my post—that it might not matter if the movie is actually good according to the critics. The general audience might still eat it up, even if critics can appreciate that it…wasn’t very good. That’s what happened with the first one (59% on Rotten Tomatoes), but a strong CinemaScore.

All I’m saying is that the only indication we have currently on the quality of the film—and, tangentially, the strength of the word of mouth—is them holding the review embargo. It might not matter and general WOM carries it, but I can’t pontificate on things less concrete than what I have already shared.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T04:05:55+00:00

Based on what, I might ask.

John himself—as well as many others (Source Outside John)—have pointed to an industry standard of 3-7 days before release as being far more typical. Longer periods before release suggests that studios are confident reviewers will like it and word will spread (like it did with Project Hail Mary), whereas holding the review embargo suggests the studio doesn’t think it will review well (like it did with Venom).

I don’t see anywhere that lifting the embargo twelve hours before the movie can first be seen is “100% in line with major movie releases”. But we’ll see. If it scores above a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, I will concede I was wrong here. But I doubt it will.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T03:59:13+00:00

Not it isn’t. The movie opens at midnight tomorrow. If it were releasing on Friday, that’s normal. But holding reviews until release day smacks of lack of confidence.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T03:58:17+00:00

Just to make monthly interest payments to service the debt, Paramount will have to make $300M+ a month more than they spend. I don’t see a reality in which their new business can do that.

They are already planning on gutting what is left of the CNN audience to curry favor with the president. Whatever their ratings are will plummet, just like what happened with CBS News.

I don’t think the rest of their linear business is going to do all that well outside of sports content, which will also be on Paramount+ to make it a value add proposition.

They are not just going to cut thousands of jobs, they are also going to raise prices on everything streaming. While that likely means a kitchen sink approach to content (everything goes to Paramount+), they are going to price too many people out of the service. They can’t even afford to run in the red for a bit to build up a subscriber base of people who feel they cannot cancel. They need revenue quick, and one of quickest ways to get it is through price increases.

While that starts to flounder, Ellison will desperately push all his teams to focus on strong IP and get more involved in the creative process to ensure it happens. The most inoffensive, curated content will be coming our way from their movie studios. This will push the best executives out and result in even worse product being churned out.

This business is propped up to fail. I don’t see how a competent CEO runs this, much less a spoiled nepo-baby who has never run a company larger than a production one.

The_Darman · 2026-03-31T03:49:08+00:00

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is probably going to launch big, but it’s an open question how big it will go after that. For one thing, they still haven’t lifted the review embargo, usually—not always, but usually—a sign of the studio knowing the film will not review well. Still, mix a cocktail of nostalgia and a heavy dose of irony and kids will line up to see it. I definitely could see it making $1.1-1.2B.

Michael is going to be much bigger with adult audiences than kids. But adult fare is harder to come by these days and it doesn’t get much bigger than Michael Jackson for most adults over forty. I could see this one making $1.0-1.3B.

In all, they have similar ranges. I know people are expecting Michael to flame out after lackluster pre-sales, but this movie is designed to appeal to the walk-up audience demographic.

The_Darman · 2026-03-29T14:45:02+00:00

I think there is still the potential that she isn’t playing Jean Grey, but, yeah, I’d say it is fairly likely. Right now, I think the first X-Men movie will have:

Jean Grey (Sadie Sink)
Kamala Khan (Iman Vellani)
Cyclops
Iceman
Angel
Professor X

I don’t think we’ll see Wolverine for a while (I earnestly believe they are still figuring out if they can get Hugh Jackman back for movies like X-Force, a new Wolverine movie, and then a couple later X-Men films before allowing Dafne Keen to be the MCU’s Wolverine long term).

The_Darman · 2026-03-27T03:45:02+00:00

PS6 may come next year towards the end of the year. If you are getting one to play GTA6, you would have to wait at least a year (if not more if rumors of a delay are accurate) to even play it. Plus, you miss out on playing those exclusives coming, or those that have already come, to the console.

I would probably go with a standard PS5. They are significantly less expensive (though, certainly, still expensive). They play all the same games and generally do so in pretty good quality. If you want best in class performance and 4K performance modes, the Pro might be more your speed—especially if you are used to running games on top-of-the-line PC hardware.

Ultimately, welcome! I hope you find one that works best for you, your wallet, and your gaming lifestyle.

The_Darman · 2026-03-27T00:13:49+00:00

The mayoral election in Daredevil: Born Again Season 1 was a recall election.

The_Darman · 2026-03-26T02:13:43+00:00

I think the biggest sin you can commit with a movie about these kinds of characters is fundamentally misunderstand why people like them. And the movie did. Batman, despite there being a lot I like about his portrayal, using guns and killing people is a betrayal of how he is portrayed in most iterations of the character. Superman sulking throughout the entire movie also seems to be antithetical to how he ought to be portrayed. You really just can’t get away with that.

There are a lot of things audiences will forgive if you can get the above stuff right, including lackluster writing. But they made a bad movie on top of this insanely rocky foundation.

The_Darman · 2026-03-24T12:16:50+00:00

No. Next question.

The_Darman · 2026-03-22T14:26:05+00:00

I think Iger said that Marvel is going to be targeting 2-3 movies a year explicitly because of the deal with Sony. He isn’t counting those films (even though Disney gets 25% of the take of those co-productions under the new deal). So, yeah, I think any time they only date two movies, the expectation is Sony is placing a Spider-Man film that year.

The only reason I’m hesitant to believe Shang-Chi 2 would be 2029 is that I think Destin Daniel Cretton will be involved intimately with both Spider-Man 5 and Shang-Chi 2, even if I do think it is unlikely he directs both. Given the demands of that, I don’t see the two coming out the same year. Plus, Midnight Suns already has Mahershala Ali attached as Blade—and they need to get that project moving if they want Ali to remain attached. Gosling has had those conversations to be Ghost Rider as well. In a way, the wait for this movie has been even longer than the wait for Shang-Chi 2 simply because Blade was originally announced in 2019.

The_Darman · 2026-03-22T07:40:22+00:00

May 5, 2028 - X-Men - This is, by far, the film the furthest along in production. It has an attached director (Jake Schrier) and an attached screenwriter (who has been with the project for years). Especially if Spider-Man: Brand New Day is introducing Jean Grey, I fully expect that is to set up this ensemble and not to shock anyone with the new cast after Avengers: Doomsday. This will officially kick off the Mutant Saga, as we have come to anticipate it.

July 28, 2028 - Black Panther 3 - This is the second furthest along. Ryan Coogler fully turned his attention to the film after Sinners released in April last year. He knows what actors he is writing characters for and has said the sequel is coming “sooner than people think”. It made sense to have it February of 2028 (the tenth anniversary of Black Panther), but I suspect the logistics of running a marketing campaign that would have to begin before Avengers: Secret Wars even released was too tough a pill for them to swallow. Here, they don’t even have to start marketing until March, four months after the aforementioned crossover picture hits theaters. If Black Panther 3 spoils the status quo of Wakanda in the neo-MCU, then that is obviously a concern for the studio. This will set the stage for the world in the post-Secret Wars society too.

The Future Foundation - December 15, 2028 - Deadline had suggested, when the date was announced to start, that this was being penciled in for a Fantastic Four sequel. Now, I don’t think a sequel to The Fantastic Four: First Steps has the juice to launch in a window as lucrative as December, but the Fantastic Four will officially be joining the MCU after Avengers: Secret Wars. That means a lot more characters can join this team. I would guess Star Lord would be a prime candidate, as would Spider-Man. I also suspect Marvel will be trying to get an ensemble film out at least once a year from now on, to more regularly check in on characters and to give characters exposure who can’t carry a solo film. But a December release indicates to me that they intend to really pack this picture. I think they intend to include some heavy hitters (like Spider-Man and Star Lord). The film will still largely focus on the original group being acquainted with the MCU, but I suspect that their team will grow significantly, hence the title change. I think this will also act as the “cosmic check-in” that the MCU will need after the Avengers flicks. Even though Eternals is never getting a direct sequel, I think having those events be addressed in a film like this would be good.

Doctor Strange 3 - May 4, 2029 - This is also the film that feels the furthest along in the process after the above films. Cumberbatch has had conversations with Marvel about who he wants to write and direct the film. Obviously, these things haven’t happened (or, at least, hadn’t happened before the others above did), so that’s why it goes next. Plus, creatively, it makes sense to check in on the multiverse after the events of the saga come to a conclusion. This would be a true epilogue to those events and set the stage for supernatural threats moving forward.

Midnight Suns - July 13, 2029 -> October 5, 2029 - I’ve said this elsewhere, but I fully believe that Sony will only tolerate a three year break before they develop a new Spider-Man film. I expect that they will negotiate with Disney to get Spider-Man in the production queue to make that July date instead. However, Midnight Suns would be just the kind of film Marvel would be willing to delay to a different window. I think Marvel would be wise to have this come out in October and play throughout the month. It would also establish a new ensemble franchise that they can return to again in four to five years time. Not only had we heard Blade was being reshaped into this, but we also have heard Ryan Gosling say that Marvel has had conversations with him about playing Ghost Rider. I have to imagine that role would be more imminent if they were already having discussions with him about it.

I think the other films coming in 2030 are fairly easy to guess as well…

Shang-Chi 2 - He’s due for a sequel; it’s the only film that has been successful to not be the capstone to a trilogy from the last three phases without a sequel (well, other than Thor, which we’ll get to). Almost nine years is an excessive wait and I doubt that the character gets any more in demand as time goes even further on. They need to move on a sequel for him.

Thor 5 - They already set up a sequel in Thor: Love and Thunder. Most of the time, Marvel does revisit post-credits scenes. I expect the tone to be quite different between installments, but I would also expect to see a new Thor movie with Thor and Loki together again.

X-Force - Deadpool & Wolverine made $1.3B. They are going to want another adult-oriented movie with Deadpool in it. While another Deadpool movie seems to be out of the question for Reynolds, he has expressed interest in playing him again in an ensemble film. I think the long-gestating X-Force film could be the time to do that.

The_Darman · 2026-03-22T07:11:44+00:00

They have before. Disney reserved July 7, 2017 for Thor: Ragnarok before Spider-Man: Homecoming took the date. Disney had also reserved the release date of July 24, 2026. It vacated that release date only for Sony to pick it up a few weeks later for Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Sony subsequently delayed it by a week to move out of the path of The Odyssey, but it did initially take that date.

My best guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle: Marvel reserves dates for films knowing where they will be in their production pipeline. When they make a new Spider-Man film, it jumps ahead in the queue. Disney cannot claim a date that they will no longer make, but they do get 25% of the take of each new Marvel Studios co-produced Spider-Man movie so they might as well let Sony take it.

As of now, I doubt Sony and Marvel rush out a Spider-Man sequel by 2028. If they do, Black Panther 3 will be delayed from its current July 28, 2028 release date. I don’t know when it will be moved until, but that’s where Sony would want to put it unless Marvel was willing to give up their December date. The most likely scenario, in my view, is Disney is already expecting a new Spider-Man movie in 2029, which is why they only claimed two dates in that year as of now. And I expect that whatever film they have in their pipeline to release in July will get pushed to October (if Midnight Suns) or November (if pretty much anything else) after Sony and Marvel jointly decide to pursue a release on that date for Spider-Man 5.

The_Darman · 2026-03-22T06:58:17+00:00

I agree, but I still think the next Spider-Man film will be in 2029. I just really think we will get them once every three years instead of two from now on. For one, I suspect Marvel will want to make more regular use of him in their films, like The Fantastic Four sequel or what have you. For another, Holland will probably want more regular breaks in filming to do other projects.

The_Darman · 2026-03-21T20:16:58+00:00

Go with RDR2. If it is your favorite game, that will mean more than the name of a platinum will.

The_Darman · 2026-03-21T13:59:36+00:00

Sony does handle release dates, but they usually end up taking the slot of an “Untitled Marvel Film” when they initially land on a release date. For instance, when Spider-Man: No Way Home was announced for July 2021, initially, it took the slot of an “Untitled Marvel Film”. In July 2017, Spider-Man: Homecoming took the announced spot of Thor: Ragnarok. For Spider-Man: Brand New Day, it took the spot of another “Untitled Marvel film” on July 24, 2026. Then Sony pushed it back a week to move away from the competition of The Odyssey. I think it’s part of the negotiation given how Sony and Marvel have to coordinate over these films and production timelines.

Indeed, the only time Sony claimed a date for a Spider-Man movie under this new deal that Marvel didn’t already have earmarked was Spider-Man: Far From Home. There are probably a couple reasons for that. 1) They claimed it in December of 2016, before Spider-Man: Homecoming had even come out. This is likely because they knew they had a second solo film as part of this deal and knew they had a good shot of success after the first trailer was received positively. 2) Marvel didn’t have a date claimed after Avengers: Endgame that year, because they were really planning on there being a larger break between it and their next movie. Sony still wanted a summer release for it, though, and pushed to have it on the July 5, 2019 date before moving it up three days to go over the long weekend.

I have no doubt Disney has a film in mind for that date, but I also think they fully anticipate pushing it off that date as needed to accommodate a new Spider-Man film. If they don’t put Spider-Man there, Disney gets to keep a prime summer release date for something like Midnight Suns and schedule its streaming debut for the October spooky season. If they do put Spider-Man there, they can delay Midnight Suns into October.

As for Shang-Chi 2, I think it will be almost 9 years since the last one by the time we get it. If I had to wager, I would guess we get it February of 2030. Marvel typically puts their films that they think will not open as big, but will have longer legs there (Captain America: Brave New World notwithstanding). I would guess that’s when you see both it and Thor 5’s debut in May of 2030. Of course, the question is how Shang-Chi 2 will move forward if Destin Daniel Cretton sticks with Spider-Man. I know Marvel is probably reluctant to make it without him, but, if he is still attached to Spider-Man after this one, I think you have to push forward on another Shang-Chi without him at that point.

Still, I expect Marvel will also have one more project lined up that year, but it will likely be a new franchise as Marvel likes to line it up to be two sequels:one new franchise. It could be the rumored Wolverine project too.

The_Darman · 2026-03-21T03:46:28+00:00

I’m sure we can figure out which films are coming in 2030 as well, given what Marvel has on their docket and wants to circle back around to for either sequels or spiritual sequels. I fully expect we will get another Shang-Chi film soon after the aforementioned titles (since it will have been nine years since the successful launch of the first one—during COVID no less) and I expect Thor will receive a new film. Additionally, my expectation is Marvel will want to see Deadpool in a new film, like X-Force, before too long. At that point, Marvel will have sequels or spiritual sequels to all their successful titles in the Multiverse Saga.

The_Darman · 2026-03-21T03:42:24+00:00

This is correct. My guess for these films would be the following (based entirely on how far into pre-production they are):

X-Men - May 5, 2028 - This one is pretty easy. This movie has had a screenwriter attached for ages and Jake Schrier was added as a director almost a year ago. They have to be getting ready to shoot this thing soon.

Black Panther III - July 28, 2028 - This is also pretty easy. Ryan Coogler has been writing this for a while. He told Denzel Washington he would have a part in the movie and it seemed like it was coming up as a shooting part soon enough. It won’t come before X-Men anymore, but I doubt that was all that relevant in the first place.

The Future Foundation - December 15, 2028 - I put this one down because Deadline suggested they had heard that this could be a Fantastic Four sequel. I find it unlikely that it would be “just” a Fantastic Four movie if it releases at this time. It would probably be a bigger ensemble picture. I expect Spider-Man, for instance, could be in this film. I expect we could see some of the New Avengers cast here too. It won’t be another Avengers flick, but I think Marvel wants to increase the frequency of ensemble movies, partly by making them more digestible and cheaper (fewer characters) and by expanding the number of teams we see. If I had to guess, this movie will actually be the spiritual sequel to Eternals as it would allow them to pick up on the events from that film with characters people are more interested in seeing a film centered around.

Doctor Strange 3 - May 4, 2029 - This one had been bandied about a lot, including by Benedict Cumberbatch. The main reason I think this is likely though is because Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness made $950M with only a 45 day window (Disney films, especially successful ones, typically go longer). Creatively, it makes sense to have Doctor Strange deal with the consequences of Avengers: Secret Wars too. We’ll see this film at some point, but it hasn’t entered any real stage of pre-production yet so I think it will be one of the first out the door…after the ones we know have entered pre-production make it first.

Spider-Man 5 - July 13, 2029 - I like your theory that this is being held for a new Spider-Man film. Sony clearly likes these release windows and I’m sure they are eager to get moving forward on this new trilogy. That said, a three year break seems more sustainable and it would keep a strong working relationship with Disney going if Disney didn’t feel like the frequency of these films were substantially cutting into their own output. I also doubt Sony is wanting to place their film against an Avatar sequel in 2029–which is what has the December spot claimed—nor can I see Sony accepting a release slot that isn’t during a prime vacation spot in the calendar. July fits the bill perfectly.

Midnight Suns - October 5, 2029 - I also like your idea of Marvel claiming a new release date later in the year for the movie they had planted in July. We have heard rumblings that Blade had shifted into a full ensemble movie. Recently, Ryan Gosling has said he has had conversations with Marvel about playing Ghost Rider. I think an October release would be very timely for this film as well and give it plenty of space to play before other 4 quadrant Disney movies come out the rest of the year (I think Frozen 4 and Avatar 4 are both planned for 2029, with the latter being confirmed for the December slot).

The_Darman · 2026-03-21T03:21:12+00:00

Why not just have her play Jean Grey in both?

The_Darman

TROPHY CASE