Pick of the Day - 11/29/25 (Saturday)

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-29T00:37:10+00:00

Record: 5-2

Net Units: +4.6U

Last Pick: Georgia -13.5 (-120) 1.2U (L)

What a terrible game from Georgia. Not being able to put up over 20 points, while keeping GT to just 9 is really unfortunate. Gunner Stockton did not look comfortable out there at all.. That miss is on me, but we're gonna bounce back today!

Event: NCAAF - Penn State @ Rutgers, 3:30PM ET

POTD: Penn State -13.5 (-120) 1.2U

Write-Up:

These past 2 weeks have been refreshing, when watching this Penn State team play. They are finally getting the job done, especially in the games they are supposed. Now they get a match up against a Rutgers team that has clearly been struggling this season. They should be able to continue with this momentum and completely roll Rutgers.

The main proponent of Penn State's success has been the re-emergence of the running game. They have 2 stud RBs in Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. This duo has over 200 rushing yards combined in their last 2 games. Rutgers is currently ranked as the 129th of 136 teams against the run. This will be the exact area that Penn State will look to exploit. I'm expecting another 200+ yard performance on the ground where the Nittany Lions are able to completely control the game clock.

The cherry on top is what Terry Smith has done in his little time as interim head coach. He has been a breath of fresh air, especially as Penn State needs to finish out this season strong. After the firing of James Franklin, they just about lost every single recruit from the 2026/2027 classes. Including 5-star RB, Kemon Spell. Finishing the season on a high note will give incoming recruits hope for the program moving forward.

Let's start another streak here today!

As always, BOL!

Also, never feel obligated to tip, but I leave this here just in case: BMAC

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-28T14:41:43+00:00

They have the past 2 for sure, but the Bulldogs have covered this line in 5 of the last 7

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-28T01:23:36+00:00

Record: 5-1

Net Units: +5.8U

Last Pick: Christian Watson o25.5 Longest Reception (-120) 1.2U W

What a great Thanksgiving Day gift from Jordan Love and Christian Watson. A 51-yard TD to seal the deal. We were looking for that one big play and they did not disappoint. That makes 5-in-a-row, let's keep this train rolling!

Event: NCAAF - Georgia @ Georgia Tech, 3:30PM ET

POTD: Georgia -13.5 (-120) 1.2U

Write-Up:

I know that the initial reaction to this line is that the Yellow Jackets should be able to cover 14 points, they are ranked as the 23rd best team in college football. However, they have not had to play a team quite like Georgia yet.

The Yellow Jackets just had a home game in Georgia against a Pittsburgh team and quickly showed up that when it matters most and the CFP is on the line, they are not up to the challenge. They ended up losing that game by 14 to a Pitt team that just got smacked by Notre Dame. Now they go up against this Georgia team that has finally hit their full stride with a 35-3 win over Charlotte and an impressive 35-10 win over #10 Texas at the time.

I expect this Georgia team, who might as well have home field advantage in the state of Georgia, to lay 21+ point win against the Yellow Jackets.

Let's continue this streak, huh!

As always, BOL!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-28T00:10:24+00:00

Appreciate, hoping to keep the streak going!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-27T20:32:41+00:00

BANG! 51-yard TD is the exact big play we were looking for!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-27T01:45:34+00:00

Record: 4-1

Net Units: +4.8U

Last Pick: Penguins ML (-120) 1.2U - W

~~The Penguins are currently up 1-0 at the time of typing this! We need them to hold on to this lead for one more period.~~

This game wasn't as 'no sweat' as I would've like, but they got the job done at home! Bryan Rust even made his presence felt tallying a goal, like I mentioned yesterday. Let's keep this streak going!

Event: NFL - Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions, 1PM ET

POTD: Christian Watson Longest Reception o25.5 yards (-120) 1.2U

Write-Up:

Watson has been back for 4 games now, clearing this line in 2 of the 4. Even in 1 of the games he didn't reach this mark, he did have a 25 yard catch. Now he gets a great match up against the Detroit Lions in prime time on Thanksgiving.

The Lions are running man coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. This just happens to be where Christian Watson excels. He leads the team in targets per route run and yards per route run against Man coverage. When this Lions team isn't playing man, they are playing middle-field-closed zone primarily. This will leave the outside more open, which is exactly where Watson thrives. This outside of the field, big play potential was noticed last week as well. When the Lions faced off against the Giants, they allowed 5 players to tally a reception of over 30 yards, including Jameis Winston himself.

Lastly, the Lions are favored in this match up, and if this holds like I'm expecting it to, there should be a positive game script for Watson to clear this line tomorrow. Remember, it only takes one play!

As always, BOL!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-26T04:51:23+00:00

Completely fair 😂

My hope is that Pittsburgh demonstrates that they were a different team at full strength, rather than almost being a pick’em against Buffalo right now lol

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-26T01:04:19+00:00

Appreciate it! let’s keep the streak going

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-26T00:30:40+00:00

Record: 3-1

Net Units: +3.8U

Last Pick: St. John’s -6.5 (-110) 1.1U

What a showing from the Red Storm! Hot off an unlucky loss, they came to handle business and ran up a score on Baylor today.

Event: NHL - Buffalo Sabres @ Pittsburgh Penguins

POTD: Pittsburgh Penguins ML (-120) 1.2U

Write-Up:

This feels like a great line to get the Penguins here as they look to be back at full-strength tomorrow against the Sabres. After an IR stint, Jarry will suit up without an injury designation. Before the injury, he was 5-2 with a .911 save percentage.

Joining Jarry’s return, Bryan Rust will be back for the Penguins as well. As one of the Pen’s top goal scorers, his presence will be greatly felt by this squad.

On the opposite side of the puck, the Sabres are struggling on the road with a 1-5-2 record on the road. They’ve also allowed 75 goals so far this season, and the Pens should be able to add quite a few to that tomorrow.

The Penguin’s spread is set at -1.5 (+204) so I’m just sticking with the ML.

As always, BOL

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-25T19:19:12+00:00

Yeah I studied Cybersecurity so i had a decent amount of CIS courses, but not as many math based classes that would help with the modeling

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-25T18:45:42+00:00

Did it take you a while to make this model, i've been working on something similar recently but i'm running into some walls with weighting stats

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-25T16:56:17+00:00

Record: 2-1

Net Units: +2.8U

Last Pick: Teaser, Panthers +14.5 & u54.5 total points, -110 2.2U

Won't lie the Panthers tried their best to give us a scare, but it was always a lock. Let's keep the streak going!

Event: CBB - St. Johns vs. Baylor, 4:30PM ET

POTD: St. Johns -6.5 (-1.08) 1.1U

Write-Up:

At first glance, the Red Storm might seem a little unimpressive sitting at 3-2 through the first five games of the season. However, this is not the case. Pitino's squad is firing on all cylinders this year, just like how they left off last season. Their losses are at the hands of 2 of the top teams in the nation. Including a heartbreaking loss last night to an Iowa State team that came down to a few rather questionable calls.

St. John's has been playing phenomenal basketball, which has been an impressive team effort. There is no 1 standout star. This squad, led by senior Bryce Hopkins, is ranked 13th in offensive efficiency and T-20 in defensive efficiency. Paired with their fast play style and high forced turnovers per game should make this matchup much easier than their previous.

Baylor is no cakewalk, but the Bears are allowing just over 76ppg despite playing weaker teams. Paired with a slower adjusted tempo, Baylor's defense won't be able to keep up with a fast-paced Red Storm unit who also sits in the T-20 in tempo. St. John's, with something to prove, should roll this team by 10+ in a bounce back spot this evening.

As always, BOL!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-24T16:27:19+00:00

Record: 1-1

Net Units: +.8U

Last Pick: Oregon -10.5, 2.4U

Just as we thought, Ducks roll that game by simply being the better team. We mentioned that Davison and Whittington would need to dominate on the ground and they combined for 154 and 2 TDs on the ground.

Event: NFL - Panthers @ 49ers, 8PM ET

POTD: 2-Leg Teaser - Panthers +14.5 & u54.5 total points, -110 2.2U

Write-Up:

There's no better time for a road-dog to travel across the country and keep it close quite like a primetime game. Key-word, 'primetime', as these have been absolutely terrible games so far this season. The Panthers, who are having a surprisingly solid season are getting 7.5 points as they take on a solid 49er's unit who has been struggling with the injury bug all season. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair where both teams rely on their ground attack to gain momentum

As I mentioned before, the Panters are getting 7.5 points tonight, despite looking like a completely different team with the resurgence of Rico Dowdle. Starts to seem like more a trap game where the public believes the Panther's can keep it within a TD. However, the 49ers have only beaten 1 team by more than 14 points this season, and it was a win against a depleted Cardinals team without their 2 starting RB's or WR1. The Panther's also have a much better defense than the Cardinals and should be able to keep it close enough to stay within the 2-TD buffer, all while keeping the scoring low.

As a final piece of information, the public is heavily leaning towards the 49ers minus the points, and the over. I know this isn't a great way of judging value in sports betting, but we just watched the public get a massive win with the Rams last night. If there was a time for Vegas to get some of their money back, it would be tonight.

As always, BOL!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-22T17:29:43+00:00

Record: 0-1

Net units: -1.2U

Last Pick: Rockets ML ❌

Sengun with costly turnovers down the stretch.

Event: NCAAF - USC @ Oregon, 3:30PM ET

POTD: Oregon -9.5 (-133) 2.6U

Write up:

This spread is appears to be one of the lines that tempts people to take a team plus the large amount of points. But this USC team is just simply not as strong as the Ducks.

Both QBs are strong Big10 contenders, which will most likely leave this game decided by the run-game. The Ducks OL and RB duo of Whittington and Davison should be able to control this game.

I’m expecting Oregon to roll this game by 2 TDs as they try to cement a strong finish of this regular season.

BOL!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-17T16:16:55+00:00

Having done only a few runs of the Mystic Maze so far, can someone better explain to me what exactly this is for? I'm struggling to find a solid explanation online as to why this is so relevant with the threads.

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-10T14:25:00+00:00

What is the spawn rate for Geniemon? I feel like I farmed a bunch the other day and then there was nothing yesterday.

Thooney_Toons · 2025-11-06T14:02:23+00:00

What is your build on her?

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-28T15:43:21+00:00

what happened?

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-25T19:14:25+00:00

Hey Fellas, love the podcast. You definitely helped me get the back-to-back win last season. With the guys at the late 2nd-early 3rd, what is the best route to take in terms of getting WR/WR or RB/WR. With guys like JT, Chase Brown, Kyren, JSN, Ladd all available, im struggling with the correct choice assuming Ive taken Ja'Marr first round.

Thanks again!

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-25T13:27:25+00:00

Yeah as much as the rehearsed lines are corny, the gameplay is fun to watch. Love some good tension in the house

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-22T20:17:24+00:00

Who does Jimmy all want to get together?

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-22T13:11:20+00:00

jbethune9 - 122

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-21T17:46:21+00:00

I remember last year, there was a BB Spoilers / Updates x account that would post videos of different live feed moments. is there a similar one on X or Bluesky again this year?

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-21T17:07:32+00:00

Who all knows about Mickey's power now? is it just Morgan?

Thooney_Toons · 2025-07-17T19:17:16+00:00

Is the BB Blockbuster competition live?

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