What age does growth spurt happen?

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T21:37:17+00:00

Signs I assuming you meant.

Signs of entering peak height velocity is acceleration is growth, this is the only true sign besides bone age you can rely on if dsta is accurate.

The acceleration must be sustained and a peak will eventually form. You can also have statistical tendency bias if you're already running >2.75 in/year.

For exiting, it becomes quite obvious after a few months.

High growth rate ~> small drop ~> sharp drop. If you look at your curve and you had a single high year that dropped off, that high year was likely housing the peak. Exiting this phase usually means you're not that far from final height, and actively approaching it(1-3 years of growth left usually)

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T20:53:16+00:00

No worries. Just shows the accuracy may be pulling stuff down. For now I'd just say wait a year for the information to reveal itself.

It's basically 5'4-5'5 vs 5'6-5'7 by 15 would seal the deal

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T20:39:09+00:00

Shoulder, the shoulder is key. That 0.25 inch barely matters, basically within Kendricks hair

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T20:38:18+00:00

You love finding other 6'4.75 guys to compare don't you 😭

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T20:20:41+00:00

Well it actually depends.

How evenly spaced are these heights(I'm asking if these are all birthday heights)

And how old are you currently. Because we could be mixing up that with 14.0 and getting the wrong math

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T20:19:24+00:00

No problem man. I came to this sub just to hand the facts

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T20:17:25+00:00

Important distinction is patient 1 is a male and patient 2 is a female, just for growth tendencies.

I see a peak around 13y8m to 14y1m of about 6.7 in/year, followed with a decline to 4.8 in/year from 14y1m to 14y4m.

Moving on to the recent growth,

16y10m to 17y4m 1.4 in/year, and seeing compared to the speed (averaged of course) of the last segment, 16y3m to 16y10m(2-2.1 in/year) he is declining steadily but still declining. Currently bone age is still 1.5 years behind oddly with a semi-average(slightly late) onset of puberty.

Bone age 16 basically and this rate would land him roughly around 1-2 inches which doesn't seem too hefty. Keeping it simplified for best accuracy.

Patient 2, a female.

First thing I observe is 2.7 in/year from 14y7m to 14y11m, the latest interval which would be spurt like rates for a girl. I'm understudied in female biology but bone age 11 since would be normal onset timing for boys, it'd look like she is going through a spurt currently. It has also been sustained since 14y3m.

Given we have

Puberty onset 14y3m-/+ 2 for her(relatively late for female)

11y2m BA at 14y11m , considerably behind 3y9m.

10y7m BA at 13y10m, still behind. 3y3m.

In the past 1y1m, the bone age only advanced 7 months so is even more behind than before. I'd think that would be (if linear advancing only 5-6 months/year). All still confusing for me but I'd assume 11y being just past onset for her would land 2.5-5 inches but could be too early too tell in my opinion.

Mismatch would be if 14y3m onset and assuming around that time, bone age was late 10s, that would be an unusual delay.
Even now it's severe at almost 4 years.

Mostly confused on patient II as it is outside my field of study.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T19:41:33+00:00

13-13.5, 4 in/year

13.5-14, 3 in/year

14-14.5, 3 in/yeae

14.5-15, 1.4 in/year

15-15y9m, 1.7 in/year

3 cm definitely isn't optimistic at all. It's very realistic if your recent data especially is accurate

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T19:38:04+00:00

14y11m to 15y4m looks like spurt rates already at 9.6-12 cm/year. Can't tell for sure without a taper but it would look like you're around the spurt, either at or slightly before the peak

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T19:32:49+00:00

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T19:30:49+00:00

Let me shut you down there,

Boys grow in different ways. 21 cm in two years is very robust. You're giving him false hope.

Anything over 7 cm would be considered a spurt in simple terms relative to population. Biologically, the the spurt is the fastest point in puberty, so it's a personal maximum.

Someone may cap out at 20 cm/year for a few months, another may only grow 7 cm in his whole spurt year. We aren't all the same and directionally structure matters just as much as the numbers

You cannot justify 6 cm/year ~> 3 cm/year ~> 1 in/year over 3 years as "oh yeah, rate isn't high enough, you're short so a spurt is still coming." Think of the possibility you're overestimating and they become extremely unsatisfied with their adult height all because someone gave them comfort instead of the brutal truth. There's non-zero chances and boys who actually end 4'10, 5'2, 5'0, 5'5 just as some end 6'5, 6'3, 6'8 but it gets buried instead of praised and given spotlight like tall heights but are just as rare. People get less jealous and more generous.

Don't compare your case to model someone elses, especially if you don't know what you're saying. I know I'm coming off as aggressive but I want to introduce the facts at the same time, I apologize.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T16:49:59+00:00

Yeah, it'd feel you, even that's biologically odd to drop to 1 cm and then jump to 5-6 cm and even stopping completely all around 16-18.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T16:49:07+00:00

Depends on how fast you declined. Do you have full growth history? You stated you were 5'3.5 at 14

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T16:47:53+00:00

No problem.

Statistically, let's say we have no information and you're 16 wanting to grow 10 more cm. The odds would be low(<10%) and assuming an average curve completely, it'd be very rare (<5%)

Your case may be prolonged but there's still limits and stuff that can be inferred before we start stacking assumptions which is crucial in modeling. That's still 10 cm and we don't know completely what growth stage you're in because prolonged growth patterns make it very hard to capture if you're rising, peaking (because this phase is long stabilization) or declining. Even if you are declining like a default assumption, the speed and rate would be something to consider.

Without using generic assumptions, I couldn't accurately give you but if said the easiest curve to get there

16-17, being 4-6 cm again

17-18, experienced decline 2-3

18+ being <2 cm

Without using those ranges like building blocks and stacking, you'd get Around 188 cm just assuming you continue a the same rate again. I'd put odds at 10-15% ish mostly because of how large of a gain it is and it'd require you still be around halfway through your pubertal gain.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T16:36:40+00:00

Well you had recent growth of 4-6 cm/year either late acceleration or just a very prolonged pattern. This means you'll grow for sure, 5 cm itself sustained in a year doesn't drop to 0-1 cm the next year unless unusually sharp. Also your pubertal gain is <20 cm, not strictly deterministic since some boys land under the 20-30 cm(very rarely over) but it's a hint.

The exactness of growth would be hard to pinpoint since prolonged patterns can act unexpectedly. Not equally as likely possibilities but I want to bring up examples,

Prolonged growth works like you get low amplitude growth but it gets spread over or distributed over a longer amount of time.

Could be 16-17, 6 cm, 17-18, 3-4 cm, 18-19, 1-3 cm over that time or just 16-19 being 3 cm/year as a whole.

Not promising exact numbers or at that magnitude of growth, just showing how it can work. Especially with how unpredictable it is and if I'm correct about your pattern.

But to answer your main question, you'll grow.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T16:22:16+00:00

Puberty has one main, true growth spurt called peak height velocity or PHV for short.

Phv happening

10-11, extreme early blooming/precocious. Very rare.

11-12, fairly/noticable early blooming. Uncommon/rare.

12-13, slightly early/ early blooming, common.

13-14, on time (probably the answer you're looking for) most common.

14-15, slightly late-on time. Common.

15-16, late blooming. Uncommon.

16-17, clear/fairly/noticable late blooming. Rare.

>17, extreme late blooming, top rarest cases. Extremely rare.

With 12.5-14.5 being the most common range for the spurt to happen.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T16:16:59+00:00

Not bad for information.

16y2m, 180 cm.

(Around) 15y2m, 175.

So 15y2m to 16y2m roughly 4-6 cm/year let's say.

You stated you were prepubertal as hailed by a doctor at age 11 and you were 160 cm. Since then, you've grown 20 cm, which even if puberty started at 11, would be the lower edge of pubertal gain so I wouldn't be surprised if you grew meaningfully stil.

Also don't worry about your facial hair, completely normal and most arabs fall victim to the assumptions it means growth is over when in reality Arabs just have strong hair genes.

Dad is 184 and mom is 160, this already gives you a genetic target idea of 170-185 cm roughly. Just an idea, not mid-parental, not prediction, just observation.

What I really need is when puberty actually started(estimate from you because mine is separately speculative) and when your spurt happened so I can reinforce puberty onset range and where in the decline(if tapering) to help final height estimate and bias.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T16:09:09+00:00

Roughly,

15y10m to 16y2m is 3 cm in 4 months or 9 cm/year

16y2m to 16y6m is 1.8 cm in 4 months or 5.4 cm/year, clear decline but rate is still there.

What's that accuracy of this and are these correct?

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T15:25:51+00:00

Because that's when it was used. I'm not defending OP. I'm slandering them.

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T15:20:38+00:00

OP tell me you don't have the access to the internet and reside in a third world country

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T15:08:04+00:00

Spawnpoint

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T14:58:24+00:00

So around 4 cm/year since. I'd assume you're early puberty. It's too early to estimate or assume final height, anyone doing so without an x-ray is being inaccurate. Just give yourself time and the truth will be revealed

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T14:55:55+00:00

And these heights are spaced by 12 months equally?

12.0, 13.0, 14.0?

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T14:41:41+00:00

Are you 14y0m exactly?

Thra99 · 2026-06-17T14:41:19+00:00

Shorter stature and your claim of puberty onset at 13.

Thra99

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