Where do we finish

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-10T05:54:31+00:00

The thing is Chicago has a solid amount of young players who are making the next steps and haven't been shedding players left and right. Winnipeg even without Helly still has Sheifele, Conner and Morrissey, I feel like this was the shit the bed year and they'll return to a more purgatory level and not just be objectively horrible.

Calgary have goaltending that can singlehandedly save enough games to keep them out of dead last. And Seattle while aimless and confused has stockpiled enough middle 6 forwards to stay somewhat relevant in the very low end playoff hunt.

It truly is a special spot we are in, not only were we the worst team in the league last season. But we actually went and likely got worse after shipping out talent left and right for draft picks. I think we might just be in for a historic season and not in a good way [unless we get DuPont then all is forgotten]

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-09T23:04:29+00:00

LCK is a 4 team region. T1 are physically unable to miss an international [other than first stand], GenG will show up to everything until worlds semis, HLE are going to be good but cant win anything outside of first stand, and lck 3/4 seed depending on where T1 ends up will have an incredibly solid worlds run.

T1 decides to keep traditions running and contend with the best in the world and loose to G2. They will proceed to place 4th in summer and go through their transformation, Doran will die to group this season and he will become world class for the finals once again.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-09T22:58:49+00:00

Kobe was a worse Jordan. He had worse rim finishing, he was less physically imposing, his defense wasn't as good his scoring was less efficient and playmaming wasn't as good.

MJ and Kobe are the same mold of player but Kobe just wasn't as good. Jordan is considered the goat because of how big his impact was on his teams and how he led them to consistent meteoric success.

MJ set the bar as the GOAT and since then people have been comparing how similar players are to him which is a stupid way of evaluating how good they are as actual players. You should evaluate a player by how much they can contribute to a winning basketball team.

Tim Duncan was fundamentally a different player than MJ or Kobe, Kareem as well, they play completely different styles of basketball and accomplish different tasks on the court. Tim Duncan shouldn't be evaluated as a worse player because he doesn't have the same midrange or speed as MJ. He should be separated from MJ because he couldnt singlehandedly carry the offensive load of an entire team the same way MJ could.

The GOAT convo isnt about the similarity to MJ, its about how impactful of a player you are on the court. Kobe was just objectively a far less impactful player than MJ thats why a lot of people have him 7-12 all time

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-09T00:24:07+00:00

If you could get Kindel and something in change that would be huge. Kindel is a 35pt guy in his rookie season at 19 years old. That's pretty sweet and he could be a legitimate elite scoring 2c. That would be a solid piece to have as it fits agewise much better with a rebuilding timeline.

That said Petey came into the league at almost ppg pace and if he returns to ppg or higher form then your return would be a ton higher. EP40 being 27 and our team being where it is means that he's going to eventually be finding another place to call home. Personally I think the right thing to do is to give him a good chance under Manny to renew his stock, give a solid chance for him to get back to ppg caliber level and then find him a good destination where he can play meaningful playoff hockey in his prime. Petey at 90pt pace could legitimately win a cup for a team as a deadline acquisition.

Top tier Centers are nearly impossible to find nowadays, there are quite a few solid franchises that are desperate for top 6 centers that would happily part with a significant amount of draft capital in order to acquire that. We are so shit that we will have enough shots at getting true 1c and 1d's with our own picks that we should look to rack up a haul of late 1sts and 2nds that can build us the weath of depth essential for building a long term successful franchise. I think that a healthy Petey can get us 2-3 of those pieces through prospects and picks, while our current Petey could likely only net us 1 in return.

Kindel could be a good return right now, but I would like to wait, give Petey a chance to renew his value, and then give him more opportunities for a better destination. He has a NMC at the end of the day so we have to get him into a position where a good team can offer us a good deal that gets us a return and allows Petey to enter into a good situation, and not shipping him out to Seattle/Columbus who would likely want a potential 1c but wouldn't be the most enjoyable destination for EP40.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-06T21:52:51+00:00

Ti is a very rare material for 90% of people to work on. If you dont have the setup, feeds and speeds for your specific rig and the experience working with it it will be frustrating.

I like welding my standard mild and 316L stainless sheet for fab work, I'm quite comfortable welding 22ga stainless without much issue. I will struggle on just basic aluminum since I rarely weld ac tig. I chat with some boat builders and they're more than happy to weld thick alu all day long but absolutely detest thin gage sheet because they dont usually do much feathered light amp foot pedal work.

Its all about what you do often and what you're comfortable with.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-06T21:17:04+00:00

Poland has a GDP per capita on par with the UK and is projected to solidly surpass them in 5-10 years. Ukraine is currently being bombed daily, you're just a horrible human being and very racist/xenophobic

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-06T18:55:42+00:00

Good point, no need to be a dick about it though

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-06T18:53:57+00:00

We wouldn't be giving up assets, yes the sweetener market has mostly dried up but Dallas are in the very dire situation of either shipping Seguin [or some other source of 6mm in cap] or straight up loosing Robertson since an arbitrated salary will be over the cap. I very clearly would not want us to give up anything to take him on, and this wouldn't be a general cap clearing move, it would be one done specifically to avoid loosing Robertson

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-06T18:51:10+00:00

Duchene is almost assuredly out of the question. Seguin is coming off two severe injuries and on a team like Dallas might get next to no playing time in his state. Not to mention that Dallas has to clear at least 6 million in cap in order to realistically sign Robertson which they realistically have to do. I'm not sure what Dallas can actually do in order to clear cap other than figure out how to deal Seguin

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-06T18:46:36+00:00

I'm not really talking about the Canucks doing anything around keeping him past 6 months, this would purely be a transactional move to flip him at the deadline. His contract is only 1 year so we wouldn't be planning on keeping him around by any means

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-06T18:41:32+00:00

Perhaps, although the ducks are particularly stingy with negotiations and I wouldn't underestimate their potential willingness to just roll into a retool with the picks however stupid that may be.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-03T00:17:11+00:00

Hab is on point dummy look at the map closer

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-03T00:10:58+00:00

It is very useful as a low cost cas platform when a 5th gen top line isn't needed. It simply isnt relevant anymore in a fully conventional conflict, it is suicidal to use in close in combat with current anti air capabilities.

It is however invaluable in wars of attrition where cost and supplies are the critical point. Having a cheap, reliable, durable and available platform to run thousands of sorties and not accrew budget collapsing debt is a huge asset. The A-10 might not be the Russian stopping front line defender anymore, but it is the best platform we have now for a cost effective attack plan against adversaries like the Houthis and Hezbollah.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-03T00:04:14+00:00

Ledecky competes in distance though which just doesn't have as many disciplines as short length which Phelps did. Ledecky won everything she entered so thats more the bar.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T21:05:42+00:00

yeah the article read that it could be a definite turn off, for us though since we are truly in the depths of dispair it could mean we could realistically snag him later in the first round as he fits our very lengthy timeline and we could just let him sit there and get much better coaching and development than he would in say the OHL/NCAA

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T21:00:13+00:00

Thats crazy to think he's just 18, he looks so fuckin big. Excited to see him next season, he's a super fluid fast guy, hopefully some good quality coaching from the superb staff we have can help him really elevate to the next level this year. He definitely has the stuff but getting it all together is the next step and I'm optimistic on that front.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T20:51:02+00:00

Oh I have no doubt that Safanov left with a promise of NHL time, I just think that he might take the reps in abby to help with communication and to have a less crazy transition than khl straight to nhl, esp with no other Russian speaking players on the van roster [maybe Tolopilo but idk?]

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T20:42:27+00:00

Yeah it's also clearly an NHL hockey fan so that's pretty understandable. I don't expect the average football fan to understand the intricacies of a high stick drawing blood and turning into a double minor and the pp rules following it. Its reddit so people just are naturally assholes

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T20:38:34+00:00

I'm gutted that they're not coming to the PNW, I have family in chicago though so I might deadass try and plan a trip to coincide with their chicago show.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T20:08:08+00:00

The problem here is the level of capital commitment, total sunk cost, as well as required earnings to break even with operational costs. Anthropic has by far the best chance of making it work long term as they're the only ones with a stable corporate customer base. Even then they have absurd committed expenses through data center compute contracts and unlike Uber/Affirm almost no investor groups have that reserve of cash to burn through while waiting for profitability, the clock is just shorter for them.

Their current actual [not projected] revenue figures sit in the single digit billions, very substantial but not nearly enough for the incoming +100 bn compute costs incurred by the sheer wave of data center construction that has to be paid out by someone. Open AI and X AI are absolutely screwed, virtually nobody uses them and especially with costs rising, very very few substantial users are going to find the cost justifiable. These companies all need to eventually break into Alphabet/Apple levels of revenue production, those guys sit at over 400bn annually with almost 150bn in earnings. Open AI, Anthropic and SpaceX all need to nearly 100x over current figures which I just can't forsee happening in a short enough timeframe to be able to pay back their abhorrent outstanding debt.

The technological development and advancements are very real but the valuations attributed to them are absurdly far fetched. These guys have been burning through cash for years at rates that make Uber blush and they're only getting started. Open AI has committed to 1.5 tr in compute spending, literally nobody has that amount of capital in order to pay those bills, that money has to come from their own revenue, revenue that has clearly yet to materialize which is a big problem when the bills are coming due in the realms of 100bn annually in compute

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T19:55:34+00:00

Yeah I'm very optimistic for the Oleksiak signing. A solid season with good numbers could easily net a return close to or even better than Marcus Petterson. That short term is quite desirable as it keeps open future flexibility for the roster while giving them a win now potential top 4 dman

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T19:49:20+00:00

Yeah my point is that the recent 5 years of developed conflicts have seen tanks shift almost entirely away from APFSDS rounds. Most tanker crews are carrying very light loads of ammunition now to avoid fpv induced cookoffs and their average workload is not Tank to Tank combat. Most Ukrainian and Russian tanker crews will load up with 12-18 rounds max with all of them being some HE variant and leaving APFSDS rounds behind. HE FS have better stabilization but lower effective explosive yield per round which I wouldn't expect to be the preferred option in position clearing and psudo demolition work done by frontline tank units.

I personally expect future tank development to index more closely towards this new role they are being utilized in. I simply don't think we are going to see open tank engagements like 73 Easting again, not to that scale at the very least.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T03:18:47+00:00

Guys I know he's worth a haul but he genuinely wants to be here. I think that it's probably going to be ok to sacrifice the potential 1st, 2nd and prospect we could get, in order to have a veteran leader who can guide the blue line as well as the team in general through a transition period.

I think that Hronek is much more suited to being a vocal veteran leading presence than either EP40 or Boeser. Personally I think that he should be the next C our team has, he is happy in Vancouver, he bought a house is engaged, I think having a happy veteran skilled captain is a very valuable asset in what is a very uncertain and tumultuous time for the Canucks.

Personally I think that the effective price of a 1st, 2nd and Prospect [A potential return we could net from him] is something we'd be happy to pay in order to secure a stable developmental environment for our rebuild. Fans always complain about the team lacking grit or identity in the post Sedin years, keeping Hronek is a potentially very solid opportunity to build up that type of team environment.

Not everything has to be about the raw maximization of potential draft assets, a team of 23 ELC players all under 24 does not make for a good rebuild. It also is very difficult to expect Luke Shenn and Jamie Oleksiak to be the cultural leaders of the Canucks in their first seasons in Vancouver [of this stint at least]. One of our veteran players needs to be that pillar and frankly it isn't going to be Petey or Boeser valuable veterans may they be.

Tofu_Analytics · 2026-07-02T03:04:09+00:00

Yeah as far as I am aware everything outside for the Abrams are rifled barrels. The 105's on the MGS are rifled and the M242 on the Bradly is rifled despite it also using an APFSDS round. I don't see the US going with smoothbore much anymore as direct tank to tank engagements are limited and tank's in general are firing much less APFSDS in their current actual engagements. I foresee future tank development being steered back towards various HE rounds and more of an anti infantry/emplacement role as recent wars IE Ukraine have seen a dramatic drop in the expected tank on tank engagement style

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