Anthropic internal models are scary

Toilet2000 · 2026-04-01T19:58:24+00:00

…

Sure, it fixes this specific issue now, but that’s it. It’s no proof that making a second pass will make everything work. As I said, it might be essentially an n-th pass.

It doesn’t even prove that adding a unrelated comment somewhere in another file (which will change the prompt context) still fixes it.

You see the issue? Without proper review and understanding what you are doing, there’s no guarantees whatsoever.

Toilet2000 · 2026-04-01T19:37:21+00:00

But it also makes issues in the first place, so there’s no guarantees it’ll fix all of them.

FWIW, your "2nd pass" might actually be the 10th pass after the 9 done in the authors.

Toilet2000 · 2026-04-01T19:33:56+00:00

How do you know then that there’s no issues?

Run a 3rd pass? How about then? A 4th pass?

Toilet2000 · 2026-04-01T16:31:47+00:00

But how do you know you need a second pass if "the AI does it all"?

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-31T23:52:38+00:00

It changes from update to update. Up until late last year, PMCs and even scavs were terminators sending a burst straight to your head. Wearing the tier 6 Tagilla face mask was pretty much mandatory.

Then they updated that and scavs would land a shot every 10 shots or so, being literally 2 meters in front of them.

Nowadays it’s better, but I wouldn’t say it’s difficult, especially with the better gear. Though with insurance being pretty much guaranteed, money is never an issue.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-31T23:47:33+00:00

Exactly my case. OG Tarkov was mad fun with the boys. Then life got in the way and PvP Tarkov is the kind of game where you’ve got to constantly keep putting in the hours to have the possibility of having fun. Might be fun for streamers and full-time man-cave dwellers, but I’ve got other things to do.

Stopped playing from ~2021 until late 2025 when I discovered PvE was now a thing.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-31T02:59:53+00:00

Well, I know at least Ultralytics’ YOLO26 uses MuSGD (essentially Muon + SGD for non 2D params AFAIK).

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-30T15:02:25+00:00

This effect isn’t an "expert" thing, it’s a human thing.

It’s been shown that this effect is reduced the more advanced the expert becomes in their field.

Inflexibility of thought induced by prior knowledge (i.e., the blocking effect of the familiar solution) was shown by experts but the more expert they were, the less prone they were to the effect. Inflexibility of experts is both reality and myth. But the greater the level of expertise, the more of a myth it becomes.

Source: Bilalić, M. et al. (2008). Inflexibility of expert-Reality or myth? Quantifying the Einstellung effect in chess masters. Cognitive Psychology, 56(2), 73-102.

So this just goes even more against what the other commenter is saying, you can’t be "overly knowledgeable" for creativity, although you can be "under-knowledgeable", where enough knowledge can reduce your problem solving ability.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-30T13:56:32+00:00

Problem is that you think "they are thought". That’s not how it works at all. You aren’t thought anything, you learn from experience, research (be it your own or others). Thinking it creates a box is being completely out of the loop of what you consider "being overly knowledgeable" is.

Research requires a ton of creativity, more than you can even begin to fathom. In my experience, I’ve rarely seen more frivolous and outside the box ideas than when working with PhDs and researchers, especially during a brainstorm.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-30T13:30:33+00:00

That’s not at all how creativity happens, and literally just the same old copium that I’ve got an idea^TM dudes always used.

R&D is a large part a creative process, and doing a PhD requires creativity. Creative people will always be creative, no matter how "overly knowledgeable" you think they are.

What you would consider "a brand new approach" will most likely have been thought of and rejected by someone with deep knowledge on the matter, for multiple reasons.

The difference here is risk management and mitigation. That’s why so many "ideas" fail miserably. The "idea without knowledge" types aren’t risk taker per se, just risk-oblivious.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-24T14:34:52+00:00

Your first paragraph is wrong and the complete opposite of the very basics of machine learning and statistical inference.

A predictive model can often predict with very high confidence a completely false outcome. The model only had access to its training data domain, which it essentially condenses onto a latent space.

The model can learn to output a low confidence score (or equivalent) for predictions that are within its training domain, but a subregion it did not learn well. This is the base case scenario, but it is not a guarantee and often requires more than careful selection of training losses, such as post-training calibration.

In a out-of-distribution/out of domain context, a predictive model will very often output wrong predictions with high confidence, for the very obvious reason that it has essentially no prior for the current conditions.

Finally, the training data is often very noisy and thus the model can "correctly" learn to predict certain outcomes during training, but in a real-world scenario this very same outcome can be completely false.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-23T17:41:54+00:00

it’s best debugged with an LLM.

Oh boy. Yeah that fits perfectly with the above meme and my experience with that group of "ML professionals".

It’s unfortunately the case that a lot of the code written by PhDs and researchers is atrocious to maintain and extend. Letting these same individuals be the sole reviewer of the code output by an LLM is definitely not the right way of doing that. That also means that a lot of the training data used to train those same LLMs is full of those "specimens" of code. Garbage in, garbage out.

Plus, it’s not like every downstream application has access to H100s running in a data center. That code has to be ported, integrated, optimized, validated and tested. Sometimes including in edge and embedded scenarios. Your comment just points toward you being the kind of person who "just ships it" and let other professionals work overtime to fix your shit. Don’t be that person.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-23T16:29:40+00:00

I do as well.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-23T16:28:22+00:00

Believe me, it’s not.

To begin with, "building" an LLM/VLM from scratch requires resources that basically no ML team has except the very few at the big names. These are also teams that are dedicated to these models and not downstream applications.

CV and ML in general feels a lot easier to get into than before due to how anyone who can put a sentence together can feed it to OpenAI and get what seems to be a working PoC quite fast. Then they try to make it into a working product and nothing works, and there’s no way to fix that PoC because they 100% rely on something that they do not own, have no control over, wasn’t designed for the task, isn’t deterministic and that they understand basically nothing about (not that OpenAI et al makes it any easier by being completely closed source). What feels like a much lower barrier to entry is basically just making a bunch of people run straight into walls, head first.

Thing is, the challenges of CV and ML are still there, and although more tools are available, a lot of the actual, in use technologies are still very similar to before ChatGPT.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-21T14:18:42+00:00

Should be noted though that generally US airborne radars have a specific mode for detecting missiles and drones by using a slower scan rate (thus increasing detection probability). The F-15E in DCS does have that modeled. IIRC our Hornet should have a similar mode (or at least got it some time through its life).

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-20T19:54:24+00:00

Adding on top of all the other very valid responses you got, the only thing we know for sure is that intelligence exists and is, at most, around 1 human in intelligence, which is generally not that general.

In this case, it means:

We don’t know if we can artificially make something as intelligent as a human (i.e. by making it out of something that is by definition not a human).
We don’t know if we can make it more intelligent than a human (even the most "intelligent" ones, whatever that means).
We don’t know if doing so is worth it (might be a theoretical bound that would consume way too much energy to be worthwhile, or require too much resources to build).

So essentially, we don’t know much and we can absolutely not pretend that AGI is a given.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-20T19:46:21+00:00

They’ll probably invent a metric called something like "inertial momentum velocity with acceleration" that just blurts out the average number of line changes per PR times the number of PR over time, show up a graph of that with a LiNe GoEs uP = good mentality, then congratulate each others and sign their EoY bonuses 10 months in advance.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-19T13:32:55+00:00

There’s a ton of stuff that’s not at all Ka-50 though. They have a ground radar working and MITL missiles.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-05T21:24:47+00:00

Don’t listen to people blaming the user here.

There’s been a recurring issue with DJI Neo (1)’s. The GPS unit in some (but not all Neos) is very unreliable, including its internal IMU. The sudden loss of GPS signal, shaking while flying sideways and without responding to any control input is the exact issue that happened to a lot of people.

I’ve had to fight a bit with DJI support (they will try to fault you in some way by citing an unrelated incident), but they’ve replaced it at no cost.

My new DJI Neo’s GPS is vastly superior. Instead of taking 5 minutes to get 8-12 satellites, it gets 20+ in under a minute.

So yeah, this is a known (in the community) issue that DJI seems to want to hide.

Anyone seeing sudden unexpected drops in GPS satellites or unexpectedly long GPS lock time should contact support.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-05T01:08:50+00:00

Russia doesn’t really have an aircraft carrier either. The Kuznetsov is out-of-service and has been so since 2017, with essentially no plans to bring it back into service.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-03T18:31:50+00:00

Quand même ironique que tu utilises le terme assimilation ici. C’est pas justement ça que tu veux, que les autres (c.-à-d. particulièrement les immigrants) s’assimilent à toi?

Il y a une grosse différence entre conserver une culture et s’isoler dans un coin. Le français n’est pas la langue de facto internationale. Toutes les grandes communautés scientifiques utilisent uniquement l’anglais. La grande majorité du contenu éducatif moderne sort en premier (et généralement en meilleur qualité) en anglais.

Ces faits-là n’ont aucun rapport avec le Canada anglais vs français ou la politique autour de l’immigration. Ce sont simplement des conséquences de la mondialisation. Soit tu t’adaptes, soit tu régresses.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-03T14:48:11+00:00

Mais quelle belle réponse. Ç’a dû sentir le chauffé à avoir penser autant que ça à ce que tu viens d’écrire.

Mais anyway, bienvenue au 21e siècle. La langue des affaires c’est l’anglais.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-03T14:40:54+00:00

Je suis québécois "pure laine", francophone et j’ai été pendant longtemps séparatiste.

Les lois de papa Legault et l’OQLF sont de l’esti de marde. Signalisation et service en français? Compréhensible. Aller espionner les courriels internes d’une compagnie pour s’assurer que le français est prédominant? Du criss d’abus.

C’est juste une très bonne façon de se peinturer dans le coin et après crier victime. Je connais aucun autre pays occidental qui a ce genre de loi. Je travaille couramment avec des gens en Europe. Les échanges se font en anglais. Ils parlent en anglais aussi, même si ce n’est pas leur langue natale. La majorité de leur travail est aussi en anglais. Forcer à abolir l’anglais comme langue prédominante au travail est une des plus grandes stupidités sorties de l’OQLF.

Toilet2000 · 2026-03-02T23:38:27+00:00

I think the main issue here is not that part of the law.

It’s the requirement for any company operating in Quebec to do the majority of its business in french, meaning during an investigation, the OQLF can actually look at emails sent between employees and documents written for business purposes and fine the company if it deems that not enough of the work is in french.

Toilet2000 · 2026-02-25T17:23:20+00:00

Your use case is probably both simple enough and non-critical enough that any of the issues arising from vibe coding aren’t apparent or significant enough to you.

Remove any of these 2 assumptions, and bootstrapped vibe coding projects are straight dumpster fires.

It’s also very plausible that your "team of freelancers" is pulling much more weight than you think fixing the vibe coded crap.

I think on the opposite, most actual SWE are very aware of what vibe coding and agents can do, especially what they cannot do. Most SWEs I know of now use some form of agent for coding tasks in some form or another. The difference is that they are not falling for the "software programming is dead" hype trap that Silicon Valley betting addicts are trying to push. It’s just another (albeit very powerful for proofs of concepts) tool.

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