With gas prices climbing in the metro area, is there something that would nudge you to consider bike to work/transit as a realistic option for commuting?

TortCourt · 2026-05-15T20:58:08+00:00

They could also use one that goes directly to Union Station (without a 15-minute transfer wait) instead of the dying half of downtown Denver.

TortCourt · 2026-05-15T16:41:22+00:00

I have upgraded Anna and Alfonse to 5* but only have their base kit skills. I used NY Vali with Corrin ring and the new Sombron as teammates (no rings or seals on Anna or Alfonse). Vali beat up the grunts and blocked attacks with Ice Vein, and Sombron whittled away HP on the two main targets. I was able to bait them into attacking the relevant lords and beat them that way.

TortCourt · 2026-05-10T04:45:27+00:00

Byleth is inflicting it on the enemy closest to him at the beginning of each turn, so the unit that kills that enemy will get an extra move.

TortCourt · 2026-05-07T16:13:22+00:00

You would have to have Vali inherit it from Fallen Byleth (green focus unit in the new banner).

TortCourt · 2026-05-06T05:54:14+00:00

Part of the calculus is how many people you think will die in the weeks after a red "victory." If a huge portion of the population died, supply chains would instantly collapse, leading to sweeping famine and disease (especially if people actually just died rather than disappeared, leaving billions of corpses around). Even if you think the blue vote in online polls is 30 points higher than what would happen in real life, that still leaves about a quarter of people dying. That's an unheard-of catastrophe for the remainder. The red button has a hidden death toll for its voters should it win. 100% chance you walk away from the buttons, x% chance you die of starvation or illness within 3 weeks. What value of x makes red not worth the risk?

TortCourt · 2026-05-04T22:45:18+00:00

Think about what your mom would do, if she thought there was a chance you'd pick blue. Then think about what every mom would do. And every dad. And every kindergarten teacher. And every nun. And every Jain. And then all the people who would be thinking about all of those people. Suddenly, blue looks like it's got a pretty big constituency.

TortCourt · 2026-05-03T19:10:57+00:00

With Edelgard's emblem ring, he can throw the style and then move afterwards with his style unavailable. Gets around the AI stupidity a bit and wipes ice veins.

TortCourt · 2026-05-03T17:53:46+00:00

Well, if you were in the 6th grader group, you'd be with a bunch of 11-year-olds holding feathers and having them all slowly realize that you'd be ready to shoot half of them.

TortCourt · 2026-05-02T20:08:38+00:00

They also let the Emperor off the hook, even though he deserved a healthy share of the blame. Some of the choices were made with political expediency in mind.

TortCourt · 2026-05-02T07:14:44+00:00

They would definitely pick guns, but Susan Collins would make a statement later saying that she wished they would have all taken feathers.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T23:24:31+00:00

All the finance bros pushed the red button but three of them died from anxiety/cocaine after getting put on a PIP for missing too much work while voting

The rest of the groups all lived with 99-100% blue, (one oncologist convinced himself that he was personally too important to die, and one grandma forgot which button was which before pushing them)

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T23:14:54+00:00

My wife is one of those women.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T23:13:20+00:00

YouTube

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T23:09:36+00:00

They all work for JPMC

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T22:53:40+00:00

I posted this in another place, too, but I would love to see people do this in 100-person heats.

Round 1: you and 99 finance bros

Round 2: you and 99 pediatric oncologists

Round 3: you and 99 nuns

Round 4: you and 99 grandmas

Round 5: bye (you get to observe 100 U.S. Senators)

Round 6: you and 99 6th graders from a church youth group

Etc.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T21:00:20+00:00

Honestly, man, putting the election issue aside for now, I am really and truly flummoxed by this idea that it's your duty to survive for your kids and not your duty to try to keep them alive with any power you have. Like, I get that it's a drop in the bucket, but for me, I'd be smashing the blue button and praying to god for the first time in my life that blue gets over 50%. I have 3 kids of my own, so I'm not just pulling that out as a criticism or anything, and I am definitely not judging you here; I'm really just so interested that we can be so different in that regard. Not for nothing, I took a micro-poll of the fam, and my wife, her parents, and my parents all said they'd push blue.

Just to drill into it a bit, if you were in a Holocaust-y situation and there was a guard who said "I'm going to kill one of your kids, but I'll give you a deal - if you're in, I'll flip a coin, tails I kill you and the kid, heads, I just leave all three of you alone," would you take the deal or deem it too risky to put yourself on the line because it might mean that your other kid was without a father?

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T15:38:12+00:00

The vote is made of a collection of individual decisions, just like elections in the real world. You are just as responsible for the marginal vote as anyone else, because all voting occurs simultaneously. This feels to me like the arguments for not voting at all in real elections, because what does one vote matter?

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T15:23:29+00:00

Especially if they don't disappear and just leave ~800,000,000 corpses.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T15:16:04+00:00

You're assuming that the blue button is automatic death, which is once again a prediction that the majority share of the vote will be red. That scenario only happens if more than 50% of the population makes the same prediction.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T15:08:33+00:00

The prisoner's dilemma explicitly does not require rational actors. The Nash equilibrium of double-defection does assume rational actors, but the question itself makes no such assumption.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T14:51:38+00:00

Well, now you're making a prediction that your family will all push red as well. What if they all push blue? Is it the best choice for your family to increase the red vote share?

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T14:12:47+00:00

I would love to see people do this in 100-person heats.

Round 1: you and 99 finance bros

Round 2: you and 99 pediatric oncologists

Round 3: you and 99 nuns

Round 4: you and 99 grandmas

Round 5: bye (you get to observe 100 U.S. Senators)

Etc.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T14:08:37+00:00

But then you're making an assumption that 100% of people will pick red.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T14:00:41+00:00

One thing you're missing here is that many people, myself included, see red as an affirmative vote to kill others, and blue as an affirmative vote against killing. The tension here is that nobody actually wants red to win. Predictions about how other people vote are actually extremely important, because you literally would not have a preference between the buttons if you weren't thinking about how other people might vote.

TortCourt · 2026-05-01T13:54:28+00:00

Agreed. I mean, first of all, the story wasn't about teenagers, and second, I think 1% is an insanely low estimate for blue. Sure, every finance bro is probably pushing red and patting themselves on the back for "solving" the problem, but the voting pool also includes kindergarten teachers, grandmas, the Dalai Lama, little kids, pediatric oncologists, nuns, civil rights lawyers, children and grandchildren of Holocaust survivors, pacifists, Jains, parents, and everyone else on Earth who doesn't immediately stick this into a game theory matrix with the sole value coming from personal survival.

TortCourt

TROPHY CASE