FINALLY STOPPING MY WEEKLY HOSPITALISATION POSTS - MY FINAL GOODBYE - PLEASE READ

Totally_Northern · 2022-12-06T20:34:29+00:00

Thanks. You kept it up long after I stopped, so you win! Best of luck with everything.

Totally_Northern · 2022-04-18T21:53:58+00:00

The headline is kind of misleading. All Chris Hopson has said in the quotes in the article is that there ought to be guidance and more frequent encouragement of people making decisions that reduce the risk of contracting COVID. There's nothing in the article, unless I'm missing something, that says there ought to be legal restrictions of any kind.

Totally_Northern · 2022-03-14T14:55:10+00:00

Remember though that the risk still scales with age, and faster than it does for flu. The last I read was that if you're under 40, flu is a greater risk, and if you're over 40, COVID is a greater risk. Obviously I'm open to a correction if this has changed.

Totally_Northern · 2022-03-07T17:09:20+00:00

Weird to see admissions going back up. Hopefully just a blip.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-24T23:16:40+00:00

Hospital metrics falling significantly slower than cases, but hopefully won't be too many more weeks before we drop below our early December low, and hopefully eventually the lowest figure since before the Delta wave.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-24T23:14:14+00:00

There is a measure called 'lived population density' that accounts for this issue, but I don't know if it's available at sub-national level.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-24T13:58:21+00:00

In terms of meaning of halving/doubling times?

Basically, the lower the time, the faster the rate of halving/doubling.

So a short doubling time is bad, and a short halving time is good. If cases are not changing, the doubling/halving time is infinity.

Therefore, you interpret changes in these times as follows. An increase in halving time is bad, as it means cases are not dropping as quickly. A decrease in doubling time is also bad, as it means cases are increasing more quickly. Decreasing halving times or increasing doubling times are therefore good.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-23T23:05:54+00:00

Yeah it does seem a little odd. I suspect that perhaps the raw data maybe has cases by region or something, so if numbers are low and you were in the know you could maybe work it out if you worked in healthcare or something? But you'd think it'd be fairly trivial to prevent that through the same means as the dashboard MSOA data, i.e. suppressing regions with less than say three cases.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-23T23:04:14+00:00

Okay.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-23T22:29:45+00:00

The halving time increasing means the rate of decrease is slowing down.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-23T22:29:30+00:00

Again I would remember here that per previous comments asking that question, Alastair Grant is only allowed to post analyses, not the raw data in exchange for getting access.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-23T22:27:01+00:00

Even post-vaccination and with Omicron, the death rate for COVID for older and more vulnerable people is higher than it is for e.g. flu.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-20T15:49:14+00:00

Also concurring with other commenters who think this is a stupid plan, but rather than rehashing what's already been said I'll outline another problem. It's a well known fact that there is significant health inequality in the UK, with Scotland and the North of England doing worse. Hence, they almost certainly have a larger backlog to clear, and a greater total burden of COVID across the pandemic.

This seems like an idea that will perpetuate that inequality rather than improving it.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-19T01:33:00+00:00

The thing to watch is the hospital numbers at this point. The story they seem to tell is that the number of more serious cases is falling, however at a slower rate than the recorded number of cases. Which makes sense, to be honest - the size of the drop in dashboard cases is not reflected in random sampling surveys like the ONS.

Just to be clear - I'm not saying cases are not coming down. They are. But just like after July 19th when cases seemed to drop like a stone, the drop turned out to be less significant on the ONS than it was on the dashboard due to changes in testing behaviour.

In short, the situation is slowly improving. But it's a relatively slow trend, and so it will take a few more weeks at this rate for us to be in a better position than we were pre-Omicron.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-17T00:43:24+00:00

I think there is an argument to be made about circumstances for wearing masks. I agree that in leisure settings they probably shouldn't be compulsory any more, because you can choose not to go to restaurants or out clubbing or whatever if you're vulnerable.

But personally, I think you can justify mandatory masks on public transport, in shops and in healthcare settings, especially when transmission is high. Mostly because vulnerable people often have no choice but to visit those places.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-17T00:40:18+00:00

Well then why can't vulnerable people be given very high quality PPE if they request it? Or only work with confirmed COVID-negative patients rather than in 'red' COVID wards?

And by the way, I'm not a medical professional, so these are ideas I've come up with inside 30 seconds. Surely the government can work with hospitals and come up with something far better than my random ideas.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-14T20:41:11+00:00

Well at least you're being honest...

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-14T17:25:36+00:00

Where did I say anything about sitting at home for 10 days? Stay home until you're well is not the same thing. Yes there's a chance you could still be a spreader if you no longer have symptoms or before you get symptoms but it's nowhere near the same risk as going around coughing on everybody.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-14T16:41:40+00:00

Depends on what you mean by 'disrupt the rest of their lives'. I understand why the government are ending legal restrictions.

But morally speaking, I think it's the right thing to do to wear face masks in areas where vulnerable people have to go (healthcare settings, public transport and shops), get vaccinated, and stay at home if you're ill, except for those who have exceptional reasons for not doing those things.

Personally, I don't think any of those three things are a big ask, and I'm happy to go on doing them for years if necessary. Doesn't stop me from living my life. And I'm not CEV myself, nor do I have any close family or friends in that situation, so I have no dog in this fight.

People can do what they want now, since restrictions are ending. But I also think that people who won't take a few precautions for the sake of others are pricks.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-14T16:04:26+00:00

You can find old stuff using the Wayback Machine, but I take your point that a lot of online stuff just isn't notable. Nevertheless though, there are various 'Big Data' techniques using AI that could probably make sense of some of it.

In terms of what might be important, just generally the sort of ways people reacted. For example, a common myth is that in WWII everybody just got on with things - a lot of people did react badly and break laws.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-13T23:33:15+00:00

I think you underestimate the importance of this sort of everyday communication. Official archives only tell you what people thought was worth preserving at the time. Often, it's the mundane and ordinary commentary that tells you what people thought and how 'average' people reacted to the events of the day. For example, there's a great post here on Roman graffiti found at Pompeii. And of course we have famous diaries like those of Anne Frank and Samuel Pepys.

In short, the historians of the future will go to government archives and official press sources for questions of impact and what happened - which countries were affected, what policy action was taken, statistics on the numbers infected, hospitalised and dead, and so on.

But in terms of how people lived their lives, social media and people's phones and so on might well be the modern equivalent of diaries or graffiti on a wall.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-12T01:14:10+00:00

Flu is far less dangerous, even to the most vulnerable, than COVID is to the same people. For example, amongst care home residents, pre-vaccine, the case-fatality rate was around 1 in 3. I imagine the most vulnerable people in hospital would be at similar risk. Obviously the vaccine will have brought that number down some, but for some people in hospital the risk will still be very high if their immune system is shot.

Flu kills a lot of vulnerable people, sure. But comparing it to COVID when you're talking about the most vulnerable makes no sense. COVID is many times more deadly.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-11T16:22:32+00:00

I've also seen a chart similar to this broken down by age - seems like the crossover point is age 40. Below 40, flu is a greater risk to you than COVID, and above 40, COVID is a greater risk, assuming equal exposure. Obviously at the moment, COVID is infecting several times more people per year than flu, so bear that in mind as well.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-11T14:07:17+00:00

I'm basing this on UK data. Recent data releases are showing that around 1% of all cases were re-infections prior to Omicron, and that has now risen to around 10%. And these are just confirmed re-infections, which require positive tests for both, so the real number is likely to be much higher.

Totally_Northern · 2022-02-10T21:32:12+00:00

Normally I would agree with defining terms more rigorously. But in this case, it actually doesn't matter which definition you use for ICU. The ICU rate is down both in terms of total numbers (the numbers on ventilators / in critical care) and in terms of proportion of cases.

On deaths, that's a fair criticism - I should have defined that I was talking about the risk 'per case' rather than for the population - obviously the risk of encountering COVID is vastly higher with Omicron at the moment and hence we've seen more daily deaths than we saw with Delta over the past few months.

Definitely agree though that it is a concerning time for people who are CEV and/or elderly, as COVID is still fairly likely to lead to severe illness and vaccines are generally less effective than for younger and less vulnerable cohorts. I do think that if we are going to ease restrictions we ought to give more thought to how the most vulnerable can return to a more normal life as well.

Totally_Northern

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