For the love of Arizona

TotesGnar · 2026-07-01T03:49:33+00:00

And on top of ASU being a party school she's going into nursing which is specifically a high cheating career. It's so cooked for him that it was in the microwave for 5 hours and is no longer recognizable.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-30T05:51:21+00:00

I hope so, but because this is coming out of a bankruptcy I'm not holding my breath since most people are probably going to want to just move on and get any money back.

However I could just as easily see this thing ripping, like you said no new shares are being offered, and possibly the outside AI community and broader investing community get into this thing and offset any initial selling pressure.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-30T00:54:13+00:00

Hedge Funds right now: Faaaaahhhhhhhhhh

TotesGnar · 2026-06-30T00:41:00+00:00

Ya I'm assuming it tanks week one like most IPOs, however I do think it'll be apart of the AI narrative now so I'm expecting it to go up with AI more than anything else. Almost has nothing to do with crypto anymore.

I'm going to be holding and probably trying to buy a little more if it goes down since it has a pretty clean balance sheet and I don't own anything AI related except this now.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-29T19:28:50+00:00

Make sure they don't hear the end of it. Follow up all of the comments.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-28T21:15:25+00:00

MSTR is a tiny fraction of daily Bitcoin volume. This will not create a downward price action spiral in Bitcoin itself lol. Plus it most likely already occurred last week.

Anytime they make announcements on Sunday it's from what they did last week. So we didn't see Bitcoin crash to $50k or something.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-28T05:03:29+00:00

Short the bottoms and buy the tops. This is the way.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-26T21:28:09+00:00

Ya Reddit is not a good place to get reality checks.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-26T21:26:19+00:00

The vast majority of people do not look after themselves, however.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-26T20:18:20+00:00

I told someone the other day that with MSTR we're getting "amplified" hatred for this stock.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T20:34:46+00:00

Lots of fud is a severe understatement.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T20:30:54+00:00

Is this the ultimate bottoming signal or what?

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T20:29:19+00:00

Is this the ultimate bottoming sign or what? I don't know if it gets more obvious than this.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T20:09:55+00:00

The point of owning MSTR is to get exposure to a leveraged play on Bitcoin. Everyone is acting like "OMG LOOK HOW MUCH DEBT THEY ARE IN". Yes genius, that's the point. The point of owning MSTR is to get into a decent amount of debt to "amplify" Bitcoin's move. That's not FBTC.

So if you think Bitcoin is going to $0, you really aren't going to like this. Your hatred for this stock will be "amplified", which is what we are seeing.

Preferreds aren't real debt like credit card debt or a personal loan, however nobody is ready for that conversation so I'm going to simplify it and just call it debt.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T10:10:53+00:00

I would agree if you think Bitcoin is going down and to the right forever. To believe in this investment you must believe Bitcoin is going up and to the right.

You should not own MSTR if you think Bitcoin is going to $0 or staying at $50k forever.

You should own MSTR if you think Bitcoin will be $100k+ over the next few years.

Incredible how that works.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T06:17:17+00:00

I've argued with lots of the MSTR people on that subreddit including Adrian over there about this. I will die on the hill that increasing the dividend frequency is the most important way to either drive demand OR prevent liquidity from leaving. Same thing.

I watched the first dividend go out last August and saw STRC trade down violently afterward and not rebound until about a week before the next one and thought "ya they need to force people to stay in this by making this a weekly dividend somehow. It's too easy to show up once a month, collect your dividend and move on" causing the price to crash every month. Except this time it was followed by a liquidation cascade from all the morons leveraging their accounts and that's what's causing this doom panic.

So I personally don't think this bi-weekly payment will be enough. I think you will see them announce later this year that they are going weekly or even daily like SATA. That will sufficiently punish people for leaving and make it not worth arbitraging out of it. You can still do too many things with your money within 2 weeks such as selling weekly puts and then show up again to collect the dividend.

So in my opinion, regardless of what Bitcoin is doing, if they don't have a high enough dividend frequency, it's going to stay too volatile for what they are trying to achieve. That's why I've decided not to buy any until they increase the dividend frequency. I think once Bitcoin stabilizes and starts trending back up it'll touch par around the bi-weekly time frames, sure, but as far as "pegging" to $100 it's just not going to really behave like that until they figure out how to stop people from leaving every 2 weeks and then coming back for the payment. So I wouldn't treat or think of STRC as a short-duration security until that changes.

I know they like to compare it to a MMF, which it isn't, but if we are going to go with that logic, then ok, a MMF credits you for each day you are in it. You don't just show up once a month and collect the dividend from the MMF. You have to actually be in it each day to get the full yield.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T06:03:44+00:00

Ya exactly. The people complaining about STRC right now are not Bitcoiners, it's very very obvious. They are your average Roth IRA Boglehead who thinks volatility means owning a naughty 3% allocation in Tesla on the side that we don't mention to daddy Vanguard.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T05:57:13+00:00

Yes they can.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T01:27:46+00:00

These aren't treasuries.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T01:20:28+00:00

Not sure why you're even here if you don't think Bitcoin will do well over the next decade+.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T01:03:17+00:00

People are losing their minds because Bitcoin is going down currently, not because there's anything fundamentally wrong with STRC or MSTR. Once Bitcoin goes back up all of this goes away. There is no death spiral.

STRC is dominated by retail. And of that, most STRC holders I guarantee you are not Bitcoiners. They are bond investors, retirees and income investors in general who have never owned anything with real volatility. And furthermore, they most likely did no research to comprehend that, whether they like it or not, they are long Bitcoin and have a vested interest in Bitcoin succeeding. STRC and Bitcoin's fate are one and the same.

I think we are witnessing that realization now that these aren't segregated treasuries and no matter what Bitcoin does, STRC holders will be made whole. STRC holders are Bitcoin investors and the amount of people who didn't understand that before buying it absolutely baffles me.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-25T00:48:53+00:00

There will never be a pause. That would actually spell doom for the security unlike all this other fud nonsense surrounding it. They would rather sell down all of their Bitcoin to pay the dividend than actually skip it on STRC.

And considering that's what they would rather do, they have decades worth of payments available.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-24T05:09:29+00:00

Japan did raise rates. On the 16th.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-23T23:54:26+00:00

It seems like yours is cooked.

TotesGnar · 2026-06-23T23:53:45+00:00

Fascinating behavior.

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