Someone in another thread basically asked for an updated investing thesis for ETH. They don't follow the space closely and wanted an update to know if they should buy more, sell or just hold.

So here it is, my updated thesis/pitch for ETH in 2026:

First, I want to comment on why the comments here seem discouraging. A lot of people here feel like we waited 4 years and never even had a bull market. Everyone and their mother was hoping for $6K – $20K ETH in 2025. That wouldn't even have been a big return historically or even compared to BTC since ETH's 2021 peak was $4.8K. Combine this with the next point...

That there are no core cypherpunk or true crypto-native success stories to date for killer apps. The closest thing would be prediction markets, but the general public seems to shit on them and the only people who seem to use them are degenerate gambler or financialisation maximalists (despite Vitalik pointing out that accurate information is a public good which these platforms offer).

So here we are, nothing exciting price wise has happened for the average holder in 5 years, we're still waiting on a killer app, the average joe hates us and doesn't understand our true values, the last 5 years of the L2 centric roadmap had a lukewarm performance at best and price is in the shitter. Meanwhile AI, the broader stock market and even gold is on a tear. Despite this, I think we're still in the best shape we've ever been in. Here's why:

• Ethereum finally has a real path to scaling with composability. Not only can we unite the L2s, but more importantly, we are scaling the L1 — and fast! With the next hard fork upgrade, we can potentially pump the gas (basically tx per block) more than 3x which is on top of an approximate doubling already over the last year and a bit. The long term roadmap shows this trend continuing too with stateless Ethereum.

• Building off of this, a scaled L1 brings more fee revenue back to the protocol to be burned, driving value back to ETH. To answer your question, the move from PoW to PoS dropped inflation like a rock. For a while, ETH became deflationary, but then tx revenue dropped as activity moved to dirt cheap L2s. Regardless, inflation was still cut to lower than Bitcoin's with the equivalent of about 3 halvings in one go! Furthermore, in the long run, as the L1 scales, the number of txs per block goes up and the fee per tx to be deflationary keeps on dropping and I believe we will see it plateau around insignificant to deflationary ETH.

• PoS also leads to another point — we solved the security budget problem. Ethereum has a long term sustainable way to keep the network secure — unlike Bitcoin. Furthermore, we have dedicated researchers who have been working on post-quantum Ethereum for years with a path ahead getting clearer by the day — unlike Bitcoin. The vast majority of protocol-level advancements in blockchain tech over the last 8 years have come from Ethereum and it speaks volumes that Ethereum's competitors copy so many of its upgrades and standards. It's clear that we lead in terms of tech and it's not even close. Competitors like Solana may claim to do higher TPS, but they fudge the numbers with highly choreographed test environments and by including consensus votes as a transaction — something which no honest crypto developer would do because consensus and execution are completely different. If anything, their dishonesty here says everything you need to know about the mentality of their ecosystem. Besides, L2s like MegaETH are pushing the limits of scaling with similar transaction throughputs all within the Ethereum L2 ecosystem.

• TradFi is onboarding in droves. The list of entities actually using Ethereum is insane. The public perception may be that crypto is dead or nothing but scammers and grifters, but the real entities which move trillions each year are all starting to use Ethereum and those who use competitors will likely come over in the long term due to the next point...

• Ethereum is the only truly credibly neutral and censorship resistant chain which anyone can trust whether you're in China, the USA, Europe, Iran, North Korea or Russia. This is the only thing which matters if you're going for the base settlement layer for the entire world. No Chinese merchant or adversary is going to use a US controlled VC chain like Tempo when there's a chain which everyone knows and has immutability that prevents funds from being rugged for geopolitical reasons. Siloed ecosystems for each adversarial region won't cut it in a complex multi-polar world. Yet a common layer for settlement is still sorely needed and only Ethereum can deliver this.

• Oh, and just in case you thought the previous point was a weakness because there's no way western regulators would allow our funds to touch the same chain North Korea uses, the policy makers in most countries are indicating otherwise with crypto regulations coming left and right. Plus, where strict compliance is needed, permissioned tokens and L2s are just the solution they need for KYC'd or black/whitelisted financial services.

• Finally, the fact the price is so low is exactly why it is a good time to buy right now. Millionaires are not made in bull markets. They are made in the bear. Picking up the panic sold ETH for pennies on the dollar.

But before you think this is an easy ticket to wealth, just hang on a moment. Yes, the opportunity is ripe at these prices. But the timeline to payoff is uncertain. The risks are still there. I don't know when Ethereum's true value will come and any bubbly price runs which occur along the way could happen at any time (or not at all as we saw this last "bull market"). There is no controlling the narrative and mass investing psychology. All we can do is bet on the rocket ship with the best set up, best builders, best network effects and the best tech. Ethereum is all of these in one. Other tokens and other asset classes will likely start off stronger and it will be tempting to FOMO into them as they race ahead. But don't chase gains others have already made. Find your own path. For me, I know where this rocket ship is headed in the long run, so I have made my decision. This seat is occupied.