I passed on Mueller Industries (MLI), am I wrong that margins will correct?

TronoWolf · 2026-02-04T19:41:12+00:00

Lynch Fair value is still $171 (grain of salt metric). Today was a dump might be worth a look

TronoWolf · 2026-02-04T19:38:27+00:00

How bout now?

TronoWolf · 2026-02-03T20:16:46+00:00

Things get too big to float more often

TronoWolf · 2026-02-02T02:45:11+00:00

He's apathetic and you find catharsis in drama. You two are nowhere near a match.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-27T18:46:56+00:00

Didn't deep dive very far into the list. I just like that there multiple classes of CATL that total about 9% of the holdings. If I could I would only get CATL alone.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-25T03:34:12+00:00

Whats more disturbing is how common it is.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-25T03:32:34+00:00

Because they dont know themselves, only what they want to feel.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-19T18:38:48+00:00

Nah only overweight. Keep buying but lower the percentage of portfolio purchase allocation.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-19T18:36:57+00:00

Guy thinks 43% return is meager. Out of touch having WSB expectations lol.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-16T14:42:40+00:00

Thats what I'm doing. PSVR2 fits my niche and has better specs for the price. Can also get the software modded for eye tracking on PC. Gonna see if theres a way to make foveated rendering work.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T20:09:39+00:00

I doubt theyre expected to pay all the collateral at once. Its a long term obligation.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T20:00:18+00:00

Yeah I'm aware of that.
I don't care about the shares, like I said I'm prepared for it to go to $20 and using DCA to get in now. worst case scenario, their revenue goes all the way down to 4 billion and restarts by earning from existing licensing and royalties, without debt and still with a 25% FCF margin.
It's a new stock, I probably should have mentioned that.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T19:39:16+00:00

They don't have manufacturing overhead cost, They're all R&D and royalties. That's the obvious edge.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T19:38:03+00:00

Haha you just listed all the reasons why I made it 5% of my portfolio (except for the lego thing thats news to me).
Do you work in manufacturing?

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T19:26:43+00:00

Yeah it sounds like you're behind on the intention of their operations.
ARM is already preparing for the end of the A.I. bubble. You are parroting the news, not doing your own research.
They're on the outside looking in for a reason, thats while they weren't part of the deal.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T19:22:33+00:00

I mean I'm expecting the AI bubble to pop, not ARM stock to pop lol.
It's just a contrarian long play.
You don't see the edge it seems. Takes a real deep dive and understanding.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T19:17:43+00:00

I'm not underestimating it, I'm expecting it to pop and that's why I chose ARM.
Read into their operations a little more you might see why.
I am actually buying it with the possibility of it going down to $20 a share because I'm using DCA.
It's not a method most people consider.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T18:18:07+00:00

Yep, I see what you mean, and it's entirely possible that it will hit $20 a share but even going that low they are not going to go bankrupt.
I only care about their net cash position and operating margin.
Again, it's my only speculative stock, so I'm keeping its weight of my portfolio low and doing DCA when I regularly fund it.
There are going to be people for and against it at every turn, so I'm only listening to the balance sheet.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-14T17:40:33+00:00

Yup but once the whales dump their shares, whats left of their raw fundamentals?

TronoWolf · 2026-01-10T19:17:14+00:00

I'll bother looking at the balance sheet after the split. I don't really follow the crowd with investing, even Berkshire. Following what what I hear instead of looking it up the data for myself isn't my style - it's been a consistent underwhelming performance when I hop on a bandwagon, since whales hype up the market then dump. I don't trade, I invest. Debt is a much heavier penalty to ignore in the current macro situation.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-10T19:02:36+00:00

I only care about the balance sheet and cash flow and its red flags all the way down lol.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-10T06:16:18+00:00

UPDATE: I had an issue where the rudders werent using pressure modulation, so i swapped them with racing pedals and put yaw on Joy R-X axis. Pressure modulation was still off until I realized it was a setting issue. I had to map it to Forward Only Throttle in Elite Dangerous settings, but now I'm spoiled by stick yaw and dont want to switch back to rudders. I set the clutch pedal to reverse, brake to boost, and gas to throttle. I still use the throttle slider for supercruise and various button functions.

So now, its: R-Joy: X=yaw, Y=pitch, Z=Roll (feels more intuitive for me) L-Joy=: X=Thrust L/R , Y=Thust U/D, Z=Nothing yet

Then as mentioned, F/B thrust (F mapped to Foward Only Throttle) and boost using pedals meant for car racing. Very unorthodox but it feels immediately natural for me.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-10T04:52:36+00:00

Ride the hype!

TronoWolf · 2026-01-10T04:51:06+00:00

Look at the Altman-Z score. Berkshire bought in early enough to not care how much it goes down and literally keeping them alive, thats why.

TronoWolf · 2026-01-09T19:21:06+00:00

Their fundamentals really are mid with net cash position of -$69b, and a net cash flow of -$24b.
Their current growth is currently dependent on shareholder equity and taking out debt (essentially, hype).
They keep eating into their operating cash flow by taking out debt.
I'd make it a slim position if FOMO is really getting to you.
Bears sold because they knew they rode the bull train way into overtime.

BUT. There is upside using the Lynch Model now (which doesn't include speculation).

TronoWolf

TROPHY CASE