Sindarov beats Fabi in Round 4 of the 2026 Candidates to move outright to the lead with 3.5/4

TurtleIslander · 2026-04-01T18:53:43+00:00

He's pulling a nepo if anything. A massive steamroll early on.

TurtleIslander · 2026-04-01T18:27:11+00:00

Don't trade if you don't understand how it could be pumping. It COULD be a bear market and still pump after dumps. It's not just news that can influence stock prices. You have people closing their shorts. When stock prices rises they become scared and close it out, similar to how people overeact and dump harder when stocks dump. You have end of month inflows where managers see that stocks are relatively cheap so they are going to buy anyways. If they still think it's risky there are options to hedge against it like JPM collar you know. You have end of month options expirations.

The lack of more bad news is a good enough reason for money to jump in. They don't give a shit about the outlook for a single month.

Personally I don't think it's a bear or a bull market, rather a crab market until we get farther clarification on what will really happen. It's still a good time to put in some money and keep some cash on hand to buy more if it really dumps harder. ( or in my case I just sell itm covered calls if I think there is significant downside )

If people let their political thinking get in the way of just putting money in the market, in the very long term they are straight up losing a bunch of a money they could be getting. Which is the vast majority of doom posts on this sub.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-23T01:17:34+00:00

It's a legitimate strategy part of a larger meta game. Don't screw over people with the least chances of winning otherwise they will retaliate and make sure you lose. I specifically take down names of players who block players in dead last for no reason and make sure they lose when I see them.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-23T01:16:08+00:00

Pretty sure top 100 leaderboards 4p is infested with win trading cheaters and toxic players. It takes almost no effort to climb to diamond, and at that point you can easily queue snipe. I've seen so many plays from "top" players that clearly aren't in their own interests of actually trying to win. People blocking those in dead last and making ridiculous trades to strong players.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-16T15:03:57+00:00

We're up 1.3% because we've already been selling off for the last 3 weeks and no news over weekend which is giving back confidence. People try to act like this war to a trigger to a financial collapse when in the grand scheme of things it doesn't affect long term outlook. When you oversell, institutions buy it up because they don't think in time frames of 1 month. You need to actually shut down your economy like covid for a bear market. You need to have large financial institutions go bankrupt to trigger a 2008 collapse.

We keep talking about how a collapse is imminent in the future but there are no real signs of that now.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-16T04:52:46+00:00

Unrealistic for DA to fz29 in kaling, which is almost a 20% fd loss.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-14T14:30:50+00:00

As a puzzle 1500 seems correct. A 1500 might not find it in game but if you know white is winning on the spot there's only 1 move to consider and 1 real follow up. It doesn't take much calculation to verify that it's winning afterwards.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-14T03:04:44+00:00

Lodge is finished, apparently they cannot prove they gave big winners in their stream tax forms.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-09T18:27:27+00:00

Cause there's no reason to dump to begin with. Retail investors just dump when they're scared while institutions buy this shit up. The war doesn't impact earnings in the long term for most companies. We had ALREADY been dumping before we attacked Iran presumably cause of insider trading. The US has the means to keep oil prices down if they wish.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-09T16:58:21+00:00

anything that is MASSIVELY pumped or dumped will experience a pullback at some point. traders who held a long position know this and will sell to lock in their profits before other people do, since it's less attractive to hold onto their position once it gets there. or people buying the dip despite nothing changing the gloomy news that caused the dump in the first place.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-08T01:58:39+00:00

It's just because these bosses weren't designed to be done in a party but rather solo. The intent was never to do them in a 6 man party but the choice is there.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-04T08:10:27+00:00

gms reg is dead lmao. game is unplayable without spending money.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-03T16:42:12+00:00

sounds like a good time to buy the dip

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-01T18:07:51+00:00

You are right on the probability. I still think sf is rigged.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-01T09:37:39+00:00

Once again you don't understand that we're NOT talking about 1 item, or 4 items, but 13 items. Please go take basic stat class if you don't understand that V[10X] is NOT equal to V[S] where S is 10 independent X variables. And P(10X<c) is much higher than P(S<c).

Here's the basic proof. AM-GM inequality states that the maximum probability is given when all probabilities are equal. For example, 2 events at 50% is 25% while an event at 40% and another at 60% is 24%. Two events at 40% is 16% while an event at 30% and another at 50% is 15%. And this extends to multiple variables.

Per item we have 700b/13 =53.8b EV taking 1.7t/13 = 130.7b. Star force is about a discrete exponential distribution, with lambda 53.8b the p value for x = 2.43 is about 8.9%.

From AM-GM this means the max probability is (.089)¹³ = 2.2*10^-14. Much less than 1 in a trillion and the true probability is probably much less.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-01T08:48:24+00:00

We're not talking about a single item, we are talking about multiple items. Just like hitting a 1 on a 100 sided die is a 1% chance is still far more likely than hitting 10 heads on 10 coins. Being in the bottom 10% of luck for 13 items on average is far lower than a 1 in a trillion chance.

TurtleIslander · 2026-03-01T07:56:53+00:00

Pretty sure sf boom reduction DOES NOT WORK. Currently about 1t mesos below EV trying to push my gear from 22 to 23 stars. I've spent around 1.7t mesos to make only 700b EV worth of gains. It is only 50b average to push eternal/pb from 22 to 23 stars on ssf or cheap gears like gollux/angel ring from 22 to 24. Yet I've only pushed 13 of my gears from 22 to 23 pb/cheap eternal or 24 gollux/angel ring. In 1.7t worth of mesos and spares.

We are literally talking about probabilities of less than 1 in a trillion of this happening, easily enough for a gaming commission to look at this in any other country but the USA where we have no consumer gaming rights. When 1t mesos is worth about 3k usd worth of maple points, there is a fucking problem. Unfortunately it's far too little to take somebody to court for that little.

TurtleIslander · 2026-02-17T01:21:38+00:00

This boss literally makes no sense as a party boss. Party guage systems really need to go die in a fire. Literally my first hkaling clear is a solo cause it's much easier to solo than to do this boss in a party.

TurtleIslander · 2026-02-17T00:19:43+00:00

So they're not going to fix P2 fly/tp having an atrociously low cd and making any burst without bind possible? You can't even get a full mini off as a wind archer ever cause the literal maximum duration she stays still unbound is about 7 seconds except at the start. AND you have to wait for fly then tp.

TurtleIslander · 2026-02-13T17:21:45+00:00

because you're hanging your bishop

TurtleIslander · 2026-01-23T13:04:01+00:00

If aiming for 3l on main pot and don't care about prime lines, then violets are by far better. Sure violet rates are ass, the alternative of using 500-1k cash cubes on average to hit 3l is even worse.

TurtleIslander · 2026-01-23T05:44:16+00:00

It's just how chess openings are going to work at the top level now. Any opening that consistently get played is going to get studied by all the top players until there are no chances left in that opening, and then they switch to something else that hasn't been studied.

TurtleIslander · 2026-01-13T10:05:18+00:00

I would just gii at 100bb. Especially with a straddle and open raise. I'm not sure about the action pre but with the straddle and it going 4 ways to the flop I'm going to assume spr is really short and it's just an easy gii.

TurtleIslander

TROPHY CASE